​In a move that surprises no one, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to replace outgoing Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) to run concurrently with the calendar for the 11th District special election necessary to replace HUD Secretary and former Representative Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland/Akron).  This means a primary on August 3rd, with the associated general election on November 2nd.  Rep. Stivers has announced that he will leave the House on May 16th to become the President/CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.

​Ending rumors that western Pennsylvania US Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) would either run for the open Senate or Governor’s position, the Congressman announced yesterday that he will run for neither position but intends to seek re-election to his House seat.  Rep. Kelly was re-elected to a sixth term in November with 59.3% of the vote after a close 52-47% result in 2018.  

​Six weeks after more than 2.2 million signatures were presented demanding a recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) from office, the Secretary of State’s office finally issued a statement officially qualifying the election.  With counting still progressing, more than 1.6 million signatures have already been validated. 
 
To qualify a total number of 1,495,709 signatures must be submitted and verified, equivalent to 12% of the number of people voting in the latest gubernatorial election, in this case 2018.  We now enter a recant period that will last until June 8th.  During this time, people who signed the petition have the opportunity of removing their name.   Well over 100,000 people would have to indicate they want to erase their names from the final petition count for the recall election to be canceled.
 
Since the Governor is the subject of this recall, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) will schedule the special vote.  Most people believe it will be calendared for a date in October or November. 
 
Mr. Newsom would be recalled if the majority of those casting a vote support the YES position.  If YES wins, then the replacement candidate with the highest vote total will serve the balance of the term.  If Mr. Newsom is not recalled, then the votes for all replacement candidates are nullified.  Only one Governor in California history has been recalled: Gov. Gray Davis (D) in 2003.  Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger won the replacement election, served the balance of the term, and was re-elected in his own right to a four-year term in 2006.  

​A new poll from Christopher Newport University of the Virginia Tidewater region (4/11-20; 800 VA registered voters) tested the Democratic primary electorate for the upcoming 2021 gubernatorial campaign.  Confirming other data, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe maintains a big lead for the June 1st nomination election, 47-8-6-5-1% over Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond), former state Delegate Jennifer Carroll-Foy, and state Delegate Lee Carter (D-Manassas), respectively.  Mr. McAuliffe is expected to easily win the party nomination and begin the general election campaign as the favorite opposite whomever the Republicans nominate in their hybrid May 8th convention.

​A surprising announcement yesterday came from Georgia.  Former US Representative and 2020 US Senate candidate Doug Collins (R), widely believed to again become a Senate candidate, said yesterday that he will not run for any office in 2022.  Mr. Collins did not rule out again running for public office in the future, however.  This could open the door for Georgia football legend Herschel Walker (R) to join the race.  Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who won the 2020 special election, will stand for a full six-year term in 2022.

​As expected, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) officially announced that he will run for the open US Senate seat next year.  Mr. Ryan, first elected to the House in 2002, also briefly ran for President in the 2020 election cycle.  With other prominent Democrats opting not to run, it appears the Congressman has a clear shot at the party nomination.  He will face a strong Republican in the general election in a state that is moving closer to the political right.

​The Census Bureau yesterday announced the national apportionment numbers from the 2020 census a full four months after the January 1st deadline, and the report contained more than a few surprises.  First, only seven seats changed states and not the ten that analysts had projected.  Texas gained two seats instead of the projected three.  Florida, one instead of the predicted two.  The states gaining one seat apiece were Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon.  The states losing one seat are California, for the first time in history, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. 
 
New York missed holding all 27 of their seats by just 89 people, apparently the second closest number in history, and certainly since World War II.  This allowed Minnesota to barely hang onto its eighth CD. 
 
The surprises came with Texas and Florida gaining one seat less apiece than expected.  Arizona was also projected to gain but did not.  Alabama, Minnesota, and Rhode Island were expected to lose but were able to keep their full complement of districts. 
 
The US population rose just 7.4% for the entire decade.  Only the 1930 census report, with a 7.3% uptick rate, was lower in the modern era.  Utah, with a growth rate of 18.4% during the previous ten years, is the fastest growing state in the country.  Illinois, Mississippi, and West Virginia actually lost population during the decade.

​In what appears to be a prelude to another gubernatorial run, US Representative and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) has formed a state committee for what appears to be purposes of running for Governor next year. 
 
Mr. Crist served one gubernatorial term as a Republican from 2007-2011.  Prior to winning the Governorship, Mr. Crist was elected Attorney General, Education Commissioner, and state Senator, all as a Republican, before winning his congressional seat in 2016 as a Democrat.  He has also lost statewide races as a Republican, Democrat, and an Independent.  Florida CEO Nikki Fried (D) is also making preparations to run for Governor.  Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is expected to seek re-election.

​On Saturday, New Orleans state Senator Troy Carter won the double-Democratic special election to replace resigned Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) with a 55-45% victory over his colleague in the legislature, state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D-New Orleans).   Turnout reached 87,806 voters, down a touch over 7% from the March 20th jungle primary that sent the two finalists into the runoff election.
 
The Carter victory will return the Democrats to 219 seats in the House upon the Representative-Elect officially taking office.  Republicans will then drop to 211 when Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) resigns his seat on May 16th.  The special primary election to fill the late Rep. Ron Wright’s (R-Arlington) North Texas seat is scheduled for this Saturday.  The NM-1 vacancy will be filled on June 1st.  The two Ohio vacancies, along with the open South Florida seat, have longer election cycles and come before the voters in 2021’s fourth quarter.

​GOP state Rep. Mike Perkins (R-Oakland) announced on Friday that he has formed a federal exploratory committee to assess his chances of defeating two-term Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) next year.  Rep. Golden was re-elected last November with a 52-46% victory over former state Rep. Dale Crafts (R) in the district that ex-President Donald Trump won to capture an extra electoral vote.  Maine is one of two states that splits its electoral votes, Nebraska being the other.  The 2022 congressional election here is likely to again be competitive.