Ohio: Dolan Takes Lead in New Poll: Emerson College polled the tight Ohio Senate primary (3/7-10; 443 OH likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and finds a change on the leader board. For the first time in any survey, state Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians professional baseball club, has taken the Republican primary lead. According to the Emerson findings, Sen. Dolan posts a 26-23-16% edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively.
Also, this week Gov. Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Sen. Dolan, which may counter to a degree former President Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Moreno. In the 2022 Senate race, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end and fell just one point short of finishing second. In this race, which will be decided in the Ohio plurality primary on Tuesday, he again appears to be finishing the campaign with momentum. Tuesday’s winner will then face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important 2024 national Senate races. CO-4: Clarifying the Situation: Several reports are circulating around the Internet suggesting that Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is ineligible to run in the special election to replace now resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Such a statement is incorrect. Ms. Boebert weeks ago announced that she would seek Buck’s open 4th District, thus bypassing running in a tough re-election campaign in her own 3rd CD. Therefore, the legal eligibility is no different for a special election. Should she run in and win the special, she would then have to resign her 3rd District seat, thus likely requiring another special election to fill that vacancy.
Practically speaking, however, it is unlikely that Boebert will run in the special election because a 4th District party leadership committee is unlikely to choose her. Under Colorado law, the political parties select the nominees to fill vacancies, meaning there is just one election for voters to pick the replacement. Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the June 25th state primary. Also, since the special and the regular primary is on the same day, there will be no incumbency advantage for the regular term. Should a different person win the special and regular primary, the two would not face each other. If the special election winner failed to win the regular primary, that individual would only serve the balance of the term and not appear on the general election ballot. Certainly, the Buck resignation has changed the District 4 political dynamics, but it does not particularly affect Rep. Boebert more adversely than any of the other candidates. MT-2: Candidates File: Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post. Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg. Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state Senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Trump posted a 62-35% victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4th Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election. NC-6: Walker Won’t Force Runoff; McDowell Unofficially Wins Seat: Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5th Republican primary announced yesterday that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30% of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26% of the vote, and Walker 24%. Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Mr. Walker announced that he has accepted former President Donald Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities. The move means that Mr. McDowell, who Mr. Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate. It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5th. Even if one or more should run, Mr. McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle. Primary Results: GA, HI, MS, WA: Primaries were held in three states last night, and even without results from the Hawaii Caucuses, both President Biden and former President Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they will become the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).
The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries went as expected with both Messrs. Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but have withdrawn from the race. Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary last night. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60% of the vote. Mr. Wicker won all but ten counties in the state from a total universe of 82. All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73% of the vote. All four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November. California: More Finalists Projected: As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting that three more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez only registered a 51-49% general election win over Mr. Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.
In the open South San Francisco Bay seat from which veteran Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) is assured of advancing to the November election, but his eventual opponent has still not been decided. In second place is San Mateo Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D), who is only 749 votes ahead of Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) with approximately 26,000 ballots remaining to be counted. CO-4: Rep. Buck to Resign Setting Up New Special Election: Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced yesterday that he will resign on March 22nd. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election, the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25th primary election. Special election nominations are handled through vacancy committees that the local political parties construct. This means the voters will go to the polls only once to fill the balance of the current term. This system likely plays to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) detriment. It is highly unlikely that the District 4 vacancy committee members will choose her as the party nominee considering she is still the District 3 incumbent. This also means the dozen announced candidates already vying to replace Rep. Buck will see one of their colleagues likely chosen for the special. Whoever wins the special will have a major advantage in the subsequent November regular election if the primary electorate chooses someone in the regular primary other than whom the vacancy committee decided upon. Another option the committee may have is to select someone who agrees not to seek a full term. Therefore, we will see more political drama occurring in Colorado as the campaign to replace Rep. Buck continues to unfold. North Carolina: Two More Close Polls: Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday's primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new official nominees.
The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (3/6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 NC registered voters; 598 NC likely general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42% margin, which is in the consistent realm of previously released surveys. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Donald Trump over President Biden by a 50-45% margin in this most critical of swing states. The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 NC likely voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39% spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a different 45-40% count. Primaries Today: GA, HI, MS, WA: Voters go to the polls today in Georgia, Hawaii (Republican Caucus only), Mississippi (full primary), and Washington.
In all, there are 161 Republican delegates at stake in the four states, and with former President Donald Trump already having 1,078 bound delegates of the 1,215 he needs to score a first ballot victory, securing just over 85% of the available delegates tonight will allow him to clinch “presumptive nominee” status. This means he will have enough bound delegates to claim a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee during mid-July. For President Biden, it appears he will clinch “presumptive nominee” status next week in the March 19th primaries. In Mississippi, a quiet night is expected regarding the full ballot primary. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces two Republican challengers, including state Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls), but there is little doubt the incumbent will be renominated outright for a fourth term tonight. In House races, each of the state’s four incumbents: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula), are seeking re-election and only Mr. Ezell faces an intra-party challenge. The first-term Congressman, who unseated then-Rep. Steven Palazzo in the 2022 Republican nomination battle, faces two Republican opponents. Businessman Carl Boyanton, who finished fifth in the 2022 congressional primary with just 6.2% of the vote, returns for a re-match with Mr. Ezell, and retired Army veteran Michael McGill joins them. Rep. Ezell is expected to easily win renomination tonight, thus avoiding an April 2nd runoff election. Should any candidate fail to reach majority support in the initial primary, a runoff election then becomes mandatory. CA-20: Fong Officially Advances: NBC News is projecting that state Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) will advance into the regular general election from the still unfolding California jungle primary. Mr. Fong has 38.8% of the votes counted with approximately 26% of the ballots still outstanding.
Ironically, the group of candidates may be on the ballot again, in the March 19th special election to immediately replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), before the two regular general election participants are officially certified. Under the laborious California ballot counting process, the state still has another 31 days to count and then certify the final results. Currently in second position is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R) with 25.8%, just ahead of Democratic educator and 2022 congressional nominee Marissa Wood who posts 22.0% of the vote. A total of 11 candidates are on the jungle primary ballot. Should Sheriff Bourdeaux hold second place, a double-Republican regular general election will then occur in November. For the special election, with nine of the candidates competing, including Messrs. Fong and Bourdeaux along with Ms. Wood, the special election result is expected to produce a similar result to the one just witnessed. SC-1: Trump Endorses Rep. Mace: In 2022, former President Donald Trump endorsed former state Rep. Katie Arrington against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), saying the incumbent is “a terrible candidate,” and she was renominated with only 53% of the vote. Mr. Trump is singing a different tune for the 2024 election. Yesterday, he announced his support for Rep. Mace as she again faces a serious primary election opponent. Saying she is “a strong conservative voice for South Carolina’s 1st District,” Mr. Trump now endorses Ms. Mace as she faces former Haley cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton, who is campaigning from the Congresswoman’s right political flank. Three other Republicans, including the Representative’s former chief of staff, are also announced candidates. If no one receives majority support in the June 11th primary election, a short schedule runoff will occur on June 25th. The US Supreme Court is also considering a lawsuit that would declare this district an illegal racial gerrymander. If the court rules such, the 1st CD will have to be redrawn and that could lead to a postponed primary. Indiana: Sen. Braun Way Up in Gov Poll: A new Emerson College statewide Indiana Republican primary survey (3/2-5; 526 IN likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds US Senator Mike Braun (R) cruising in his quest for the state’s open Governorship. The Emerson data finds Sen. Braun posting a 34-7-7-5% split over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, venture capitalist Eric Doden, and former State Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.
This data tracks with reported internal Braun data from the Mark It Red polling firm that records a 41-12% split over Lt. Gov. Crouch. The Indiana plurality primary is scheduled for May 7th. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to then win the general election in November. No Labels Party: Votes to Field Candidate: On Friday, the No Labels Party members voted to move forward with fielding a presidential ticket in this year’s election, but apparently are not close to identifying who might be those contenders. Some within the organization suggested nominating former Georgia Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan (R), who is critical of former President Donald Trump.
If No Labels were to go in this direction, it would signal that they are trying to be a spoiler, i.e., using a figure such as Duncan to draw votes away from Mr. Trump in the critical state of Georgia, which would give President Biden a strong chance of again winning the state thus assuring his re-election. Though the group wants to move forward with nominating a presidential candidate, the members are apparently a long way from selecting a ticket and gaining agreement from those who they might eventually choose. New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Won’t Seek Re-Election: Facing multiple federal charges and consistent polling data showing him only with single-digit support within his own party, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced on Friday that he will not seek re-election later this year. This leaves the Senate Democratic field ostensibly to US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and Tammy Murphy, the state’s First Lady.
Sen. Menendez now becomes the ninth incumbent not to seek re-election in 2024, or just over one-quarter of the 34 in-cycle Senators. Of the nine, six are Democrats, while two are Republican, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is now an Independent. Despite the large number of openings, it appears only two, Arizona and Michigan, will be competitive in the general election while three, Maryland, New Jersey, and Utah will see highly volatile Democratic (MD, NJ) and Republican (UT) primary elections. |
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