CO-4: Clarifying the Situation: Several reports are circulating around the Internet suggesting that Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is ineligible to run in the special election to replace now resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Such a statement is incorrect. Ms. Boebert weeks ago announced that she would seek Buck’s open 4th District, thus bypassing running in a tough re-election campaign in her own 3rd CD. Therefore, the legal eligibility is no different for a special election. Should she run in and win the special, she would then have to resign her 3rd District seat, thus likely requiring another special election to fill that vacancy.
Practically speaking, however, it is unlikely that Boebert will run in the special election because a 4th District party leadership committee is unlikely to choose her. Under Colorado law, the political parties select the nominees to fill vacancies, meaning there is just one election for voters to pick the replacement. Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the June 25th state primary. Also, since the special and the regular primary is on the same day, there will be no incumbency advantage for the regular term. Should a different person win the special and regular primary, the two would not face each other. If the special election winner failed to win the regular primary, that individual would only serve the balance of the term and not appear on the general election ballot. Certainly, the Buck resignation has changed the District 4 political dynamics, but it does not particularly affect Rep. Boebert more adversely than any of the other candidates. MT-2: Candidates File: Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post. Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg. Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state Senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Trump posted a 62-35% victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4th Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election. NC-6: Walker Won’t Force Runoff; McDowell Unofficially Wins Seat: Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5th Republican primary announced yesterday that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30% of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26% of the vote, and Walker 24%. Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Mr. Walker announced that he has accepted former President Donald Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities. The move means that Mr. McDowell, who Mr. Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate. It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5th. Even if one or more should run, Mr. McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle. Comments are closed.
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