Mississippi: Reeves Rebounds: Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy conducted a new Mississippi Governor’s poll for the Magnolia Tribune (3/6-9; 625 MS registered voters; live interview) and sees Gov. Tate Reeves (R) rebounding from a January Tulchin Research survey. The Mason-Dixon ballot test posts Gov. Reeves to a seven-point lead over Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Pressley (D), 46-39%. The Tulchin poll staked Mr. Pressley to an early 47-43% advantage.
In the M-D poll, the Governor has leads throughout the state with the exception of the state’s 2nd Congressional District (Rep. Bennie Thompson-D), that occupies most of the Mississippi Delta area. In that region, Mr. Pressley pulls a 15-percentage point lead. Gov. Reeves is strongest, a pair of 15-point spreads, in the Tennessee border region and on the Gulf Coast. With party nominations secure for both Gov. Reeves and Mr. Pressley, the two are already waging a general election battle that will be settled on November 7th. West Virginia: AG Morrisey Leads in New Poll: West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who lost to Sen. Joe Manchin in a close 49-46% result in 2018, claims to be deciding among seeking a re-match in the Senate race, or running for the open Governor or 2nd Congressional District positions, or simply seeking re-election. A newly released National Research poll that was conducted in late February for the Black Bear PAC (2/23-28; 600 WV likely Republican primary voters) projects Mr. Morrisey to be holding a 28-15-11-6% advantage in an open Governor’s primary against state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), Secretary of State Mac Warner (R), and businessman Chris Miller, son of Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). Though Mr. Morrisey has yet to commit to a race, this poll suggests his gubernatorial prospects are positive. Incumbent Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and is likely to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D). National Polls: Conflicting Results: While national polls don’t mean much in terms of projecting who will win a presidential nomination because the ultimate winner is decided through accumulating delegate votes through the states, we now see a released pair of interesting Republican nomination surveys conducted during the same period.
The CNN national survey (conducted by SSRS; 3/8-12; 1,040 US registered voters; live interview & online) found the ballot test favoring Gov. Ron DeSantis, as he led former President Donald Trump, 39-37%. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and ex-Vice President Mike Pence were a distant third and fourth with 7 and 6 percent. Conversely, Quinnipiac University, in the field with their national poll (3/9-13; 677 Republican and Republican leaning voters; live interview) projects a completely different ballot test result. The Q-Poll sees Mr. Trump holding a strong 46-32% lead over Gov. DeSantis, with Haley and Pence following at 5 and 3%, respectively. Because the sample sizes are typically small for national polls, and therefore possess high error factors, we can expect to see continued diverse survey results as the campaign begins to take shape. Pennsylvania: 2022 Senate Candidate Won’t Try Again: Businesswoman and political activist Kathy Barnette, who placed a credible third place with 25% of the vote behind both Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican US Senate primary, says she will not return to run again next year. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the major outside GOP support organizations are attempting to recruit Mr. McCormick into next year’s challenge race against Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D).
The ‘22 Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, a state Senator from Chambersburg, says he is considering a comeback. Republican leaders are working to ensure a Mastriano repeat does not happen since he was defeated 56-42% in the general election and failed to run a competitive campaign. In any event, Sen. Casey will be favored for re-election. Wisconsin: Businessman Considering Challenge to Sen. Baldwin: Business owner Scott Mayer (R) confirms he is considering competing for the Wisconsin US Senate nomination in a race that has not yet seen much activity. Mr. Mayer is capable of self-funding his race, though he says it’s “not something he is comfortable with.” Mr. Mayer has been told he might have to fund as much as $20 million to run a competitive race. At this point, no notable Republican has come forward to declare their Senate candidacy. Since Wisconsin always features close races, it is probable that this contest has the eventual potential of becoming a top tier targeted campaign. TX-34: Ex-Rep Leaning Against Re-Match: Republican Mayra Flores made national news in 2022 when she scored an upset special election win in the Texas Rio Grande Valley 34th District that is anchored in the city of Brownsville. In the regular election, however, she fell 51-43% to fellow Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) who decided to run in the 34th instead of his previous 15th CD.
The principal reason for Ms. Flores losing was redistricting. The 34th went from a D+5 to a D+17 under the FiveThirtyEight data organization statistical calculation making the seat difficult for any Republican to attain. Seeing political reality, Ms. Flores is indicating that she is unlikely to run again in 2024. In order to make the adjacent 15th CD more winnable for a Republican, which happened with the election of Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in November, the 34th became more Democratic. The redistricting map was drawn long before Ms. Flores won the special election, hence the lopsided partisan lean for a district the GOP was able to convert. Sen. Tim Scott: Moving Toward Candidacy: The Hill newspaper is reporting that South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is taking definitive steps to formally enter the Republican presidential campaign. This is not surprising since Sen. Scott has been considered a potential national candidate for months. It’s difficult, however, to see a victory path for the Palmetto State Senator, especially with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley already in the field.
A Scott entry would presumably be helpful to Donald Trump, since the former President would be the beneficiary of a larger field, similar to the configuration that helped him win the 2016 nomination. Such is likely the case because Trump has a large, loyal base within the Republican Party, enough to carry him to a plurality win. New York: Former Ex-Chairman Says Party Won’t Endorse: The New York Republican Party last week reinstalled their former state chairman, Richard Nixon son-in-law Ed Cox, to again lead the organization. The previous chairman, Nick Langworthy, was elected to Congress in November from the state’s 23rd District thus creating a vacancy in the chairman’s position. In a statement yesterday, Mr. Cox said that the state party would not issue an official endorsement in the presidential race in order to encourage all of the eventual GOP candidates to come to New York and compete for the state’s delegate base. He said this policy is consistent with their 2016 practice, the last time the Republicans had an open race for the presidential nomination. Mr. Cox previously chaired the state party organization from 2009 to 2019. Florida: Rep. Gaetz Won’t Challenge Sen. Scott: Quelling recent speculation popping up that Florida US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) might launch a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Rick Scott (R), the Congressman issued a statement regarding the matter. Saying he would not oppose Scott for renomination, Rep. Gaetz quipped, "if I wanted to spend my time in a retirement community, I'd definitely choose The Villages over the Senate."
NJ-9: One Less Retirement Prospect: Yesterday, veteran New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) announced that he will run for a 15th term next year thus ending speculation that he might retire from Congress. Mr. Pascrell will be 87 years of age at the time of the next election. Before winning his House seat in 1996, he served simultaneously in the New Jersey state Assembly and as Mayor of Paterson.
The Congressman is expected to have little trouble winning re-election in a 9th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17. Dave’ Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 60.7– 37.1R. The New York City suburban CD includes the cities of Passaic, Paterson, and Clifton, the town of Kearny, and the borough of Oakland. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: Files Presidential Committee: There has been much speculation that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will soon join the Democratic presidential campaign as an opponent to President Biden. Over the weekend, he took a definitive step toward becoming a candidate when officially filing a presidential exploratory committee with the Federal Election Commission. Such is typically the first step most individuals take before they formally enter a race.
Mr. Kennedy, much more conservative than the typical Democratic voter, is not expected to be a major obstacle for President Biden to overcome as the incumbent prepares to seek renomination. New York: Sen. Gillibrand’s Fundraising Ploy: The Politics1 organization and other political media sites are running with a story saying that New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is telling donors that she is concerned ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo may challenge her in next year’s Democratic primary. She sites the fact that he has $9 million remaining in his gubernatorial campaign account, which is $4 million more than she reported on her year-end Federal Election Commission financial disclosure.
Sen. Gillibrand making these statements is largely a fundraising ploy to encourage liberal donors to support her campaign. Even if Mr. Cuomo, who was forced to resign the Governorship in 2021, challenged her, he would immediately begin as an underdog. Secondly, though he still may have approximately $9 million in his state campaign account, a combination of complicated state and federal election laws may not allow a full transfer of those funds into a US Senate campaign. Therefore, the idea of a Cuomo Senate challenge at this time should largely be discounted. Pennsylvania: Here They Go Again: A new Public Policy Polling survey (3/9-10; 616 PA likely Republican primary voters) finds state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg), the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee who proved non-competitive in the general election, again leading in a statewide Republican primary. In a hypothetical US Senate nomination contest, PPP finds Sen. Mastriano topping 2022 candidate and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick and 2022 Senate candidate Kathy Barnette, 39-21-11%. If the race was a two-way between Messrs. Mastriano and McCormick, the former would lead 42-28%. Should these numbers hold, such a primary result would again nullify any realistic chance Republicans have of upsetting Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) in November. FL-25: Retired General Announces Against Rep. Wasserman Schultz: Weston City Commissioner Chris Eddy (R), a retired Air Force General and former FBI analyst, announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination with the hope of facing Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) in the general election. He first must get past 2022 nominee Carla Spalding, however.
The 25th District is reliably Democratic – FiveThirtyEight rates the seat D+18; Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 62.0D – 36.8R – which means the chances of scoring an upset here are slim. Still, Rep. Wasserman Schultz showed some weakness in the 2022 election against Ms. Spalding, however, winning only a 55-45% victory, which proved the closest of her ten career congressional elections. SC-1: Rep. Mace Challenger Emerges: Museum founder Michael Moore (D), a relative of Civil War figure Robert Smalls, announced that he will enter the Democratic primary to challenge two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this race because earlier this year a South Carolina three judge federal panel declared the 1st District an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. This means, unless the SC ruling becomes moot when the US Supreme Court decides the related Alabama racial gerrymandering case, the district will be re-drawn. A new version under the South Carolina judicial directive should make this seat more Democratic, but a considerable amount of time will likely elapse if and before the seat is reconfigured. Therefore, it is difficult to draw any current conclusions about the 2024 SC-1 campaign. |
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