North Carolina’s Meredith College polled the Tar Heel State Democrats to test the upcoming open Senate race. The survey (3/12-15; 699 NC registered voters) found no one even reaching the 15% threshold, suggesting the race begins in wide open fashion. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley and state Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) are tied at 13% apiece. Former state Sen. Erica Smith, who ran for the US Senate in 2020, follows with 11% support and microbiologist Richard Watkins trails at the 3% mark.
Upstate New York Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) announced yesterday that he will not be running for re-election next year, or for any other office. Previously, he began taking steps for a statewide run for Governor including hiring field people. An accusation was brought against him late last week, and this likely precipitated his move to leave politics at the end of the current Congress especially when his announcement included an apology for his past behavior. Mr. Reed was originally elected in 2010 and took a six-term limit pledge, which also ends in the current term.
The move is good news for neighboring Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford). With the Reed seat and hers being the two least populated districts in a state that is losing representation, the Reed retirement could make drawing a new Upstate map much easier and gives Ms. Tenney a reasonable place in which to run and win re-election. Five-term Texas Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Brownsville) announced that he will not seek re-election next year, becoming the second Democrat to declare such plans. Last week, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) declared that the current term will be her last in the House. The move comes as a surprise but does coincide with Mr. Vela, last November, recording the lowest victory percentage (55%) of his ten-year congressional career.
With the Lone Star State scheduled to gain three seats in reapportionment, South Texas looks to be significantly re-drawn. All of the South Texas Democratic seats performed better for Republicans in 2020, so we could see the GOP map drawers make some interesting redistricting moves with their eventual new plan. Rep. Vela now not seeking re-election may make constituting a more favorable South Texas competitive district somewhat easier. The first top tier candidate came forward on Friday for what will be retiring Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s (D-Tucson) open seat. State Sen. Kirsten Engel (D-Tucson) announced that she will enter the Democratic primary. This likely sets the stage for a highly competitive Democratic primary battle between she and state Rep. Randy Friese (D-Tucson). He is expected to run and viewed as the heir apparent.
Dr. Friese is the surgeon who saved then-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ (D) life after she was tragically shot in 2011. He was subsequently elected to the state House of Representatives. Redistricting could significantly change this seat as Arizona is expected to gain an additional congressional seat in reapportionment. As expected, state Sens. Troy Carter (D-New Orleans) and Karen Carter Peterson (D-New Orleans) advanced to an April 24th runoff after placing first and second in Saturday’s special jungle primary election. The winner will succeed resigned Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) who left the House to accept an appointment in the Biden Administration.
Sen. Carter finished first as expected with 36% of the total vote. A total of 15 candidates were on the jungle primary ballot. Sen. Peterson barely captured second place, just a point and one-half ahead of Baton Rouge community activist Gary Chambers, Jr. (D). The double-Democratic runoff assures the party of holding the seat once the special election concludes. A total of 94,546 people voted in the special primary, including about one-third who cast early ballots. In the second Louisiana special election, this one to replace the late Rep-Elect Luke Letlow (R) who tragically passed away after winning the general election runoff and before assuming office, the result produced no surprise. Julia Letlow (R), the Congressman-Elect’s widow, easily won the seat outright, capturing 65% of the vote over eleven opponents. Turnout was almost 31% higher than when Luke Letlow won the seat in the December 5th runoff. In this district, just over 35% of the people voted early.
Upon Ms. Letlow being sworn into office, the party division in the House will increase to 219D-212R. The remaining three vacant congressional districts, in addition to LA-2, are currently in special election cycles. Jon Rocha, a manufacturing company executive, announced that he will join the Republican congressional primary against 18-term Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). Rep. Upton was one of ten Republicans to vote for President Trump’s second impeachment, and as such has drawn opposition from his right. Berrien County Commissioner Ezra Scott and pastor Jerry Solis are the previously announced candidates.
What appears to be a growing field of opponents should play well for Rep. Upton. Since Michigan has no runoff law, multiple candidates splitting the anti-Upton vote will allow the Congressman to win re-nomination with a lower percentage, possibly a plurality. Kevin Dellicker (R) a tech company owner, former gubernatorial aide, and National Guard officer, launched an exploratory committee late last week to determine if he will enter the Republican congressional primary with hopes of challenging Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) next year. Former Lehigh County Commissioner and business owner Lisa Scheller (R), who held the incumbent to a 52-48% re-election victory in 2020, is also considering seeking a re-match.
Depending upon how redistricting changes this Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton CD, the 2022 congressional contest could well become highly competitive. President Biden defeated ex-President Trump here 51-47%. Four years earlier, Hillary Clinton scored a 49-48% win. Huntsville area Congressman Mo Brooks (R), who ran in the 2017 special US Senate election after then-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) was confirmed as US Attorney General and placed a distant third in the Republican primary, looks ready to make another attempt. Reports suggest that the Congressman will announce for the open 2022 Senate race on Monday.
The only other person so far declared is former US Ambassador Lynda Blanchard (R) who has the ability and desire to self-fund her campaign effort. Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville), Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R), and Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) have all said they will not run for the Senate. No other Republican member of the congressional delegation appears to be making moves to build a statewide effort at this time. Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Birmingham) may compete for the Democratic Senate nomination, however. Sen. Richard Shelby (R) has already announced that he will not seek re-election to a seventh term. In a bit of a surprising move, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has set a long calendar to fill the state’s vacant 11th Congressional District now that former Rep Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland) has taken her position as Secretary of Housing & Urban Development. Ohio has a law that allows special elections to be scheduled only in May, August, and November.
Most believed he would schedule the primary for May 7th to coincide with the state’s municipal election calendar, but he chose to set the primary election on August 3rd, instead. The special general election will now be November 2nd, concurrent with the state’s off-year election day. The candidate filing deadline is May 3rd. |
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