Former state Rep. Bob Lancia (R) who lost to veteran Rep. Jim Langevin (D-Warwick) last November only managed to obtain 42% of the vote. Nevertheless, Mr. Lancia announced that he will return in 2022 for a re-match.
Opposing Rep. Langevin may not be his biggest problem, however. Rhode Island looks to lose one of its two seats in reapportionment, meaning he will likely face 1st District Rep. David Cicilline (R-Providence) in an at-large US House race. Rep. Langevin, apparently looking to avoid a primary with Rep. Cicilline in which he would be cast as the underdog, is reportedly considering running for Governor. Billionaire and former presidential candidate Tom Steyer (D) is reportedly polling to see if he would have a chance of being elected Governor should incumbent Gavin Newsom (D) fall in the recall election. It is likely that Mr. Newsom’s greatest threat to losing the recall vote is seeing a strong Democratic replacement candidate entering the race. Whether Mr. Steyer is that Democratic candidate remains to be seen.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), in order to replace resigned Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D), appointed state Assemblyman Rob Bonta (D-Oakland) to fill the position. Mr. Becerra resigned his statewide post to accept an appointment as Health & Human Services Secretary in the Biden Administration. Early reports suggested that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) was lobbying for the AG appointment, but Gov. Newsom chose to follow a different direction.
Yesterday, Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita (R), a former US Congressman and Senate candidate, said he will file a constitutional lawsuit against the Democrats’ HR-1 legislation should the bill become law. If such occurs, it is clear that Mr. Rokita will have a great deal of company pursuing similar legal action.
The OnMessage polling firm, conducting an independent survey of a potential Republican Senatorial primary (3/14-15; 600 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds former Congressman Doug Collins leading the field of potential Republican candidates who may enter the race to oppose Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) next year.
According to the OnMessage results, Mr. Collins would command 35% support, eight points better than former University of Georgia and NFL football great Herschel Walker. Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), who lost the January runoff race to Rev. Warnock, would trail both potential contenders with 22% support. Though not a candidate, controversial US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) would register 7% backing. Retired Air Force officer Karl Speights, who hails from the Trump wing of the Republican Party, announced that he will challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) next year. Ms. Murkowski was defeated in a Republican primary in 2010, only to win re-election later that year as an Independent write-in candidate.
In November, however, voters barely approved a ballot proposal to change the primary into a unique “top-four system” where a quartet of jungle primary finishers would advance to the general election. The new system will effectively eliminate the possibility of again denying Sen. Murkowski re-nomination, but may also allow a candidate such as Mr. Speights to qualify for the November vote as well. California-based Probolsky Research released a new poll for what will likely be a recall election against Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). According to the survey (3/16-19; 900 CA registered voters; live interview, online, email, and text) the Governor would survive the special vote.
Among those considered likely voters, 35% would vote “yes” to recall the Governor versus 52.5% who would “no,” thus allowing him to remain in office. When the entire survey response universe is calculated, the gap narrows. From all 900 people surveyed, the Governor’s retain margin would decline to 46-40%. Of those voting to retain, 84% said their vote is definite. Among the recall supporters, a similar 82% say their desire for a new Governor is definite. Pennsylvania US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas), who was re-elected to a second term with 66% of the vote this past November from his largely rural central/eastern Pennsylvania congressional district, confirms that he is considering entering the open race for Governor next year. While nine Democrats and five Republicans have already announced their Senate campaigns, just one person has done so for Governor: Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale (R). Many potential candidates from both parties are considering running, however. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D) won Senate confirmation as the new US Labor Secretary earlier in the week, meaning a forthcoming resignation from his current position. City Council President Kim Janey (D) now becomes interim Mayor, which should give her a major boost for the regular election campaign later this year. Earlier, Gov. Charlie Baker (R) decided not to call a special election to replace Mr. Walsh since the regular election occurs in 2021. Therefore, the Governor’s move allows Ms. Janey to assume the Mayor’s position on an interim basis.
Former Gov. Eric Greitens (R), who resigned from office after a sex scandal and indictment forced him to do so, announced yesterday that he will run for Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R) open Senate seat next year. The indictments did not stick since it came to the surface that the St. Louis County prosecutor violated procedure and the charges were subsequently dropped. The scandal, however, will still be part of any future campaign. Mr. Greitens entry into the race, however, certainly will make this Senate campaign even more interesting.
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