Freshman Rep. Ross Spano (R-Dover/Lakeland), who is under investigation over certain loans provided to his 2018 campaigns, transactions that Rep. Spano admits may have been mistakes, has now attracted a serious Republican primary challenger. Yesterday, Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin, a retired Navy aviator, announced his congressional campaign.
Rep. Spano issued a statement saying, “…Yesterday, I announced a temporary pause to my campaign to fully address this public health crisis related to COVID-19. I find it unsettling that Scott Franklin would choose to launch a campaign during these trying times.” The Florida primary in August 18th and we can expect this particular race to become competitive. Though Navy veteran Elisa Cardnell had qualified for the Democratic run-off in order to face freshman Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston), she has already conceded the party nomination to opponent Sima Ladjevardian and has requested that the Texas Secretary of State remove her name from the May 26th runoff ballot. Ms. Cardnell’s action is within the legal withdrawal period, so there will be no Democratic runoff in this district and Ms. Ladjevardian, an attorney and campaign advisor to former Congressman and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, becomes Mr. Crenshaw’s opponent in November.
The Texas Republican runoff in the state’s 17th CD moves forward, and former Congressman Pete Sessions, attempting a comeback in a new district in returning to his boyhood home of Waco, received the endorsement of businessman George Hindman, the third place finisher in the March 3rd primary.
Mr. Sessions placed first with 32% of the vote followed by businesswoman Renee Swann, endorsed by outgoing Congressman Bill Flores (R-Bryan/College Station). She recorded 19% preference, as compared to Mr. Hindman’s 18% support. Combined with Sessions’ percentage, the two would equal a majority. The Texas runoff is May 26th. The GOP nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election. With the Illinois primary now in the books, it is clear that rancher Mary Miller (R) will succeed retiring Rep. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) in the sprawling 15th District. Ms. Miller, in spending only about $300,000, rode to a 57.5% victory against three other Republican candidates. She will now face Mattoon School Board member Erika Weaver in a district that will overwhelmingly favor the GOP (Trump ’16: 71%).
Elsewhere, former state Representative and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Jeanne Ives (R) will challenge freshman Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) and frequent candidate Jim Oberweis, now a state Senator, won the crowded field Republican nomination to oppose freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) in the general election. Both Democratic incumbents are favored to win re-election. We will also see a strong re-match as Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan was an easy winner in her primary race. She will again oppose Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) in a downstate 13th District campaign that was decided by less than a full percentage point in 2018. Veteran eight-term Illinois Congressman Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) failed in his bid for re-nomination yesterday, as the 3rd District Democratic electorate chose a candidate to his left, media consultant Marie Newman. The challenger was victorious 47-45% over incumbent Lipinski, a margin of 2,365 votes with almost all precincts reporting. In 2018, Newman fell three points short of victory but was able to turn the tide in this election. She will be a lock to win the general election in November.
Rep. Lipinski is the first incumbent to lose re-nomination so far this year. Ms. Newman outspent the incumbent approximately $2 million to $1.5 million from their respective campaign accounts. It appears another $3 million was spent from outside organizations, but the support/oppose ratio is unclear at this writing. Voters in three states cast their ballots for the Democratic presidential nomination yesterday, and former Vice President Joe Biden easily won in Florida (62-23%) and Illinois (59-26%), while his victory percentage dipped to 44-31% in Arizona. On the delegate count, largely because of his huge landslide in Florida, Mr. Biden captured approximately 66% of the available delegates last night, putting him on a clear course to win the party nomination on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention in July. Ohio, which was also supposed to vote yesterday, postponed its primary because of COVID-19 precautions. It will likely now be scheduled for June 2nd.
Because Ohio postponed its vote, Illinois is the only one of yesterday’s voting states to hold its full statewide primary. While Sen. Dick Durbin was unopposed in the Democratic primary, Republican voters chose former Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran to challenge the incumbent in the general election. Mr. Curran defeated a field of four other GOP candidates with slightly under 42% of the vote. The Illinois general election is not expected to be competitive, however, as Sen. Durbin is projected to cruise to a fifth term in November.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution released a statewide Georgia Democratic primary poll of the Senate-A race, where first term Sen. David Perdue (R) is seeking re-election. According to the survey (3/4-14; 807 GA likely Democratic primary voters), journalist and former congressional candidate Jon Ossoff leads the field of seven candidates with 29% preference. Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson is second with 15% just barely ahead of 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Sarah Riggs Amico who posted 14% support. The Georgia primary is May 19th.
Sen. Perdue is favored for re-election, and this race is likely to draw much less attention than the special election where appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) is also running against strong competition to serve the balance of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson’s final term. The long Democratic presidential nomination campaign is about to come to an effective end. Though former Vice President Joe Biden will not mathematically clinch the party nomination tonight, he will effectively become the Democratic standard bearer.
Tonight’s results should make it abundantly clear that Mr. Biden will win the nomination because he will effectively have an insurmountable advantage in the delegate count. Assuming he runs as strongly tonight as polling indicates, Mr. Biden will only need about 45% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,991 committed votes required to nominate. According to the latest available data, the former Vice President leads in the three states with margins between 17 (Arizona) and 38 (Florida) points. The electorates in four states are scheduled to vote, but one state is not moving forward. Arizona, Florida, and Illinois will be voting, but Ohio remains in abeyance. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) filed a lawsuit to stop the primary, but a judge refused to go along so the state Health Department authority closed the polling places as a result of the declared emergency surrounding the COVID-19 virus. It is unclear as to when and how the primary will be held. Gov. DeWine is suggesting that mail and absentee voting be expanded.
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