When controversial Michigan freshman Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) won her seat in the 2018 Democratic primary to succeed 27-term Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), she did so by defeating Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, 38-36%, in a crowded field. In the same election, however, a special election was held to fill the unexpired portion of Mr. Conyers’ final term. Ms. Jones, within a slightly different field of candidates, defeated Ms. Tlaib, 31-30%, and she served two months in the House.
Though the end of the Michigan candidate filing period is still almost a month away, Ms. Jones, without an announcement, earlier this week returned her candidate papers to force a re-match with Rep. Tlaib. This will be a competitive Democratic primary on August 4th. Several Governor’s made decisions to either move their state’s primary or run-off election, or admitted considering changing the voting system. All of the moves are in relation to adopting COVID-19 precautions.
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) moved his state’s May 5th primary to June 2nd, which will now be a very significant primary day as many states are moving to what was an already crowded election day. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) transferred the state’s runoff election from March 31st to June 23rd. There is only one federal runoff in Mississippi, in the 2nd Congressional District, and the outcome will have no effect upon the general election as Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton/Mississippi Delta) is the prohibitive favorite to defeat whichever Republican becomes the party nominee. The North Carolina Board of Elections has moved the state’s lone congressional runoff, in the open Republican 11th District (Rep. Mark Meadows-R), from May 12th to June 23rd. The winner of the secondary GOP election will win in November. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) issued a letter over the weekend that indicated he is moving the state’s May 26th runoff that features many federal and state secondary elections to July 14th. The Utah candidate filing deadline occurred late Thursday, and the Lt. Governor’s office has published a list of qualifying candidates for federal and state offices.
Utah has one open seat, that of retiring Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City) who is leaving the 1st Congressional District to join the gubernatorial ticket of former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright, and a major challenge race for the general election. In the open 1st, one dozen Republicans have qualified for the state Republican convention where the delegates hope to narrow the field to two candidates. One former statewide official is included in the mix, ex-Agriculture Commissioner Kerry Gibson, and several local elected politicians will vie for the seat. Two Democrats will be on the primary ballot, but the race will be decided in the June 23rd Republican primary. In the 4th District, seven Republicans are lining up to attempt to unseat freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City). State Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan), radio talk show host Jay Mcfarland, former NFL football player Burgess Owens, and banker Trent Christensen are among those who filed. A total of 17 candidates have qualified to go to the respective political party conventions in the Utah open Governor’s race, eight Republicans, six Democrats, and three Independent or minor party contenders. The biggest names in the race are former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman and Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox on the Republican side. Presumably the state Republican nominating convention will send the two of them to the June 23rd primary.
Among the six Democrats are former state Rep. Neil Hansen and law professor Chris Peterson. The eventual Republican nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed retiring three-term Gov. Gary Herbert (R). Oregon Secretary of State Bev Clarno (D) announced that the May 19th state primary will remain in place. Ms. Clarno indicated that because the state uses a universal mail system for its regular elections there is no increased risk of spreading the Coronavirus. Therefore, the Oregon primary will proceed as scheduled. Other states, such as Ohio, are considering switching to the all-mail format in response to taking extra precautions.
Gov. Steve Bullock (D) filed to challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R) on the final day of the candidate qualifying (March 9) and is already in a dead heat race with the incumbent according to the first published poll of the new contest. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the progressive left group, End Citizens United (3/12-13; 903 MT registered voters) finds the two statewide elected officials tied at 47% apiece. Sen. Daines has a favorability ratio of 45:42% favorable to unfavorable, while Gov. Bullock’s numbers are a slightly better 49:40%. Consistent with the others, President Trump’s job approval is 50:46%.
The Public Policy Polling approval numbers always skew toward the negative. Therefore, it is safe to assume that all three men have a better image than this poll suggests. Clearly, the Democrats have their strongest candidate to challenge Sen. Daines, and this will now be a competitive race. It is likely the state will swing Republican as the election draws closer, but we can expect a very active general election campaign in Big Sky Country. Freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) unseated two-term Rep. Rod Blum (R) in 2018 and she can expect a tough re-election battle in the fall. Republicans were successful in recruiting their top prospect to make the challenge, state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion) who is a former television news anchor. A new Public Opinion Strategies survey for the National Republican Congressional Committee (3/3-5; 400 IA-1 likely general election voters) finds the race already becoming tight. The ballot test finds Rep. Finkenauer clinging to only a 45-44% lead.
The 1st District appeared to be a Democratic seat when originally crafted in 2011 redistricting. The voting behavior hasn’t responded that way since ex-Rep. Blum first won the seat in 2014 and President Trump carried it 49-45% in 2016, but it did rebound to Ms. Finkenauer two years later. This will become a top tier challenge race during the fall campaign. The Public Policy Polling survey mentioned above (see MT-Senate) also tested the open at-large congressional district that most likely will feature State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D). Both have partisan primaries to be decided on June 2nd, but each is expected to become the respective standard bearer. The PPP numbers find Mr. Rosendale and Ms. Williams to be locked in a toss-up open seat campaign. According to the poll results, the two are deadlocked at 45% apiece.
Both Mr. Rosendale and Ms. Williams were in competitive 2018 races. The former lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D), 50-47%, while Ms. Williams fell to at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) 51-46%. This year, Mr. Gianforte is running for Governor, hence the congressional seat becoming an open race. Gov. Ned Lamont (D) announced yesterday that he will move the state’s stand-alone presidential primary from April 28th to June 2nd. The Connecticut presidential vote is not likely to make a difference either at the end of April or in early June. With former Vice President Joe Biden already effectively clinching the nomination, many of the late primaries will be pro forma. Connecticut has 60 bound first ballot delegates.
Gov. Kay Ivey (R) announced yesterday that the state will move the Alabama runoff elections for affected races from March 31st all the way to July 14th as a result of COVID-19 precautions. The move may actually help former US Attorney General and ex-Senator Jeff Sessions rebound in his Republican runoff race with retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Placing a close second to Tuberville in the March 3rd primary, Mr. Sessions has been consistently trailing in the most recent polling.
The long lag time may now give Sessions the time he needs to re-focus his campaign and forge ahead of Tuberville. The winner challenges Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November. The runoff decision also affects the Republican and Democratic runoffs in open Congressional District 1, and the GOP secondary election in open Congressional District 2. |
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