The Sunrise Movement, described by some as a left-wing extremist environmental group, announced it is targeting two major Democratic US House committee chairmen in their respective party primaries. Both Reps. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Eliot Engel (D-NY) have announced primary opposition. So far, Sunrise supported Democratic primary challengers have won one race, Marie Newman over Rep. Dan Lipinski in Illinois, but failed against Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and Bobby Rush (D-IL).
The Sunrise Movement organization is now backing Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse against Mr. Neal who is chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee. The Massachusetts primary won’t be held until September 1st, so this race has some time to develop. Mr. Morse is Rep. Neal’s only announced Democratic opponent but the candidate filing deadline does not expire until May 5th. Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Engel’s top opponent is local Bronx middle school principal Jamaal Bowman who, in addition to Sunrise Movement’s support, also has the Working Families Party endorsement. The WFP backing is significant because this could give Mr. Bowman the option of advancing into the general election even if he loses the Democratic primary. At this time, four other Democrats are also in the primary race, which is scheduled for June 23rd, and little time still remains for others to file since the New York candidate filing deadline is fast approaching on April 2nd. So far, there is no indication that the New York election calendar will change. Term-limited Springdale, SC Mayor Michael Bishop announced yesterday that he will challenge veteran US Rep. Joe Wilson in the June 9th Republican primary. Springdale, a Columbia suburb in Lexington County, is a town of fewer than 3,000 people and also Rep. Wilson’s hometown. Mr. Bishop indicates, however, that he will challenge Mr. Wilson over local issues and if elected will focus only on district concerns. Rep. Wilson remains a heavy favorite for re-nomination and re-election.
CBS News/YouGov conducted a national poll (3/21-23; 2,190 US adults) about who they trust with information about the COVID-19 virus. Not surprisingly, the partisan split we are seeing on virtually every issue also carries through to this one, as both Democrats and Republicans have differing views about some information sources they most trust:
Democrats Republicans 87% Center for Disease Control 84% 75% Respondent's Governor 65% 75% National Media 13% 72% Family/Friends 81% 44% Religious Leaders 71% 14% President Trump 90% Not surprisingly, the biggest gaps are associated with President Trump, the national media, and religious leaders. Three more states are joining the popular trend of keeping their primary dates intact but changing to an all-mail system. The Alaska state Senate unanimously voted to stay with their August 18th state primary as scheduled but will instead conduct the election through the mail. An amendment to allow non-postal receptacle ballot depositing was defeated, however. The change to a mail system in response to COVID-19 precautions is expected to be adopted.
The Indiana Election Commission has agreed to waive the requirement to produce a reason for voting an absentee ballot after it moved the state’s May 5th primary to June 2nd. For this election, any voter who wants to vote through the mail can do so. Nebraska election officials are continuing with their May 12th election but will allow counties to send mail ballots to their residents. In what is thought to be one of the most competitive US Senate races in the country next year, a new poll finds Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) expanding his small lead over consensus Republican challenger John James (R). The Marketing Resource Group, a regular Michigan pollster (3/16-20; 600 MI likely voters), posts Sen. Peters to a 42-35% lead over Mr. James.
The latter man is a Detroit area manufacturing company owner and retired Army Ranger. Sen. Peters, before his election in 2014, served in the US House for three terms, became the Michigan Lottery Commissioner, and was previously elected to the state Senate and his local city council. Three other polls conducted between January and March found Sen. Peters leading Mr. James within a range of four to ten points. The Firehouse Optimus poll conducted in early March, however, found Mr. James holding a one-point edge. Former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison had already raised over $7.6 million by the end of 2019 for his race this year against Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), and now a new poll finds him closing the spread. The Brilliant Corners survey research company (3/3-11; 804 SC registered voters) just released their results from a poll conducted two weeks ago that projects Mr. Harrison trailing Sen. Graham by just a 47-44% margin.
If this survey proves accurate, the race has significantly changed since NBC News/ Marist College released their poll taken in mid-February. Their online poll of slightly under 2,400 registered voters found Sen. Graham holding a substantial 54-37% edge over Mr. Harrison. Democrats believe this is a sleeper race for them, nationally, and with a strong fundraising operation already in place, the contest could turn competitive despite South Carolina’s strong Republican voting history. Governor John Carney (D) announced yesterday that the Delaware presidential primary will transfer from April 28th to June 2nd, joining a cavalcade of states that have changed an election date or process – several are keeping their electoral calendar but moving to an all-mail election – in adherence to COVID-19 virus precautions. The day before, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) made the same move.
Unlike Pennsylvania, the Delaware primary is a stand-alone presidential contest and the state has only 21 bound first ballot delegates. Obviously, former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to sweep all of the votes in his home state, a domain he represented in the US Senate for 36 years. The Delaware statewide primary is still scheduled for September 15th, the latest such nominating election in the nation. Though North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Buncombe County) has been named incoming White House Chief of Staff for President Trump, he reminded reporters yesterday that he is still a member of the House. Mr. Meadows says that he will resign from Congress at the end of this month in order to accept his new position. In the meantime, Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney remains in place.
Whether or not a special election will be called to replace Mr. Meadows is open to questions to be answered once an official vacancy occurs. The situation is now muddled even further since the 11th District Republican runoff election – necessary because no candidate in the crowded field to replace Rep. Meadows, who chose not to see re-election, received 30% of the vote – has been moved to June 23rd. The vote was originally scheduled for May 12th. Apparently, North Carolina election law may give Gov. Roy Cooper (D) some leeway in even holding a special to fill the balance of the remaining term. If the Governor does call for a special vote, then a whole new filing period will be opened, and any qualified voter would be eligible to run but would only serve until the end of this year. The succeeding November election will decide who wins the next term. The Republican runoff candidates are former Haywood County Republican Party chair Linda Bennett and real estate investor Madison Cawthorn. The Democratic nominee, who won the March 3rd primary without a runoff, is retired Air Force Colonel Moe Davis. Governors and election officials in several more states are making changes in their election calendars due to COVID-19 virus precautions.
The Alaska presidential primary will now be an all-mail operation. Therefore, the deadline for sending in ballots has been moved from April 4th to April 10th. The state primary remains scheduled for August 18th. Hawaii officials have cancelled the in-person option for the April 4th presidential primary. Instead, the election will be conducted solely through the mail. The state primary remains on August 8th. The New York Attorney General has recommended to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) that the state’s presidential primary remain on April 28th but be conducted through the mail. No action has yet occurred regarding changing the June 23rd state primary election date. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who postponed the March 17th presidential and state primary and potentially moved it to June 2nd, is considering changing to an all-mail system. This is largely because thousands have votes were already cast through the mail in anticipation of the originally scheduled primary. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has reached an agreement with Republican legislative leaders to move the April 28th presidential and state primary to June 2nd. An announcement of such is imminent. The Puerto Rico presidential primary has been transferred from March 29th to April 26th. Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) also signed an executive order moving the state’s presidential primary from April 28th to June 2nd. The state primary will remain set for September 1st. The special election to replace resigned Rep. Katie Hill (D) was held on Super Tuesday, March 3rd, but questions were being posed as to what Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) might do with the May 12th special general election in reference to COVID-19 virus precautions. Other states with elections on that date have already postponed their vote. Mr. Newsom, on the other hand, has decided that all CA-25 registered voters would receive a mail ballot and a small number of polling places will be operational for those who want to vote in person.
Therefore, the May 12th special election between state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) and retired Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia (R) will still have an election on that date. Under the California verification and tabulation process, however, the final result won’t be known for several days after the last ballots are received on the Friday of election week, which in this case is May 15th. Gov. Newsom’s procedural decision makes sense because at least two-thirds of California voters typically vote by mail. Therefore, this system won’t be much different than a normal Golden State election. The special election between Ms. Smith and Mr. Garcia looks to be heading toward a close finish. |
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