Arizona: Many Polls, Many Results: During the period of September 6-19, six different pollsters tested the Arizona Senate race, and the results were wide ranging. All six agree that Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has a lead over venture capitalist Blake Masters (R), but the advantage span moves all the way from one to 12 points.
Three of the research entities, Emerson College, The Trafalgar Group (R), and Data for Progress (D), find the Kelly margin at two (Emerson) or one point (Trafalgar; DfP). Another, Insider Advantage (R), pegs the Kelly lead to 6 points; Fabrizio Lee (R)/Impact Research (D) for AARP, posts the Senator to an eight-point edge. Finally, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights sees the largest Kelly margin, 47-35%. With such a diverse polling result universe, it is difficult to accurately depict this race’s true status. Nevada: Four in a Row: As the plethora of polls keep coming, we now see Republican Adam Laxalt taking a small lead over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in four consecutive surveys. From September 8-20, Emerson College, Data for Progress (D), The Trafalgar Group (R), and Insider Advantage (R) posted leads for Mr. Laxalt of one to four percentage points. Unlike the Arizona polls that find inconsistent margin results for Sen. Mark Kelly, these four pollsters all arrive at basically the same conclusion. Additionally, the Senator fails to break a highwater mark of 46% in any of the surveys, a bad sign for any incumbent. New Hampshire: Sen. Hassan in Driver’s Seat: It appears that Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and various Republican strategists and consultants were correct to forecast that retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) would not be a strong opponent against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the November election. Three polls have now been released since the state’s September 13th primary election, from Emerson College, the American Research Group, and the University of New Hampshire. The surveys were conducted within the September 14-19 period. All three pollsters find Sen. Hassan leading the race with margins between 8 and 13 percentage points. Comments are closed.
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