Ohio: Conflicting Trends:
In the mid-August through early September period, three pollsters found US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) snatching the polling lead away from GOP author J.D. Vance. The research entities Impact Research, Suffolk University, and Fallon Research, in studies conducted during the August 17 through September 11 time realm, found Rep. Ryan trending ahead with margins between one and six points. Two news polls, however, see the race flipping back to Mr. Vance. Emerson College (9/10-13; 1,000 OH likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Civiqs survey research entity, polling for the Daily Kos Election site (9/10-13; 780 OH likely general election voters), and in the field during the same period, see Mr. Vance now holding close leads of 44-40 and 48-45%, respectively. Wisconsin: Trend Favors Sen. Johnson: Since the August 9th Wisconsin primary, we’ve seen several polls conducted of the Wisconsin Senate campaign. Immediately after the nomination vote, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) opened the general election cycle with a polling lead. Marquette University Law School, a regular Wisconsin pollster, found Mr. Barnes holding a 52-45% advantage over Sen. Ron Johnson in their August 10-15 poll of 713 likely Wisconsin general election voters. Late last week, Marquette released a new survey (9/6-11; 801 WI registered voters; live interview) and the law school research organization now posts Sen. Johnson to a slight 48-47% advantage. Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Election site (9/10-13; 780 WI likely general election voters), confirms the Marquette result. They find Sen. Johnson up 49-48%. Though the lead is small, the Johnson trend line is positive. Comments are closed.
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