Arizona: Rep. Gallego Leads in New Polling, But Numbers are Close: OH Predictive Insights, a frequent Arizona pollster, produced new numbers from their January 31 – February 9 survey of 1,000 registered voters through an online opt-in panel. Under various configurations, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads the various candidate fields, but he scores only between 31-34% in the three-way hypothetical contests.
Along with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), Gallego was tested individually with Republicans Doug Ducey, the former Governor, 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. Sen. Sinema slightly improves her standing, topping out at 22%, while the highest Republican score is 27% from Mr. Ducey. The latter man, however, has repeatedly said he will not be a Senate candidate in 2024. The online poll conducted over a long sampling period is often considered less reliable than other methodologies. The bottom line from this and other early AZ Senate polls, is that any one of the three, Mr. Gallego, Sen. Sinema, or an eventual Republican nominee can win a tight three-way contest. California: Rep. Lee Files Senate Committee with FEC: As expected now that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) has announced that she will not seek re-election in 2024, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) immediately filed a Senate committee with the Federal Election Commission. Ms. Lee had been sending clear signals that she plans to enter the open Senate race, but would do so only after Sen. Feinstein made her plans known. The act of filing a FEC committee does not necessarily mean a Senate candidacy is forthcoming, but it is a clear indication this is where Rep. Lee is headed. Indiana: NRSC Sending Banks Signals: Though former Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and other GOP leaders are attempting to recruit a candidate to oppose conservative Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) for the open Indiana US Senate race, National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) appears to be headed toward the Congressman’s camp. Reports suggest the Daniels group may be close to backing former Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R) for the Senate nomination, but with Banks having the rightward faction and what well could be the NRSC endorsement and resource support, the latter man will be very difficult to derail. Next week, Sen. Daines is hosting a fundraising event for Rep. Banks sending clear signals that the national party is going to back the northern Indiana House member. Comments are closed.
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