Indiana: Bizarre Poll Numbers

​The Trafalgar Group has proven themselves to be one of the most accurate pollsters on today’s political scene, but they’re latest Indiana Senate release is causing some serious head scratching.  According to their new survey (7/31-8/7; 1,420 IN registered voters), Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) leads former state Representative and businessman Mike Braun (R), 51-39%.  While this seems like an abnormally large lead for a Democratic candidate in a Republican state, Sen. Donnelly leading the race should not be considered particularly surprising. 
 
What is rather astonishing, however, is how the ballot test is affected after posing scenarios whether Mr. Donnelly votes in favor of confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court or he opposes.  It doesn’t seem logical that, in a conservative state like Indiana, the Senator’s support should decrease with a vote favoring confirmation.  In fact, doing so according to Trafalgar actually brings the race into a 39-39% tie.  If he were to oppose, his twelve-point advantage over Mr. Braun would remain a substantial 45-38%.  But, it appears that in either case Donnelly’s becomes weaker regardless if he favors or opposes the Kavanaugh confirmation.
 
These conflicting results suggest that the poll could be an outlier.  More data will be needed to draw a clearer conclusion.