Governor-10/27/2022

Arizona:  Lake Pulls Away:  Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has held a close lead in five of the last six Arizona statewide polls conducted, but the new Insider Advantage survey (10/24-25; 550 AZ likely general election voters; live interview & text) sees a major breakthrough. 
The IA ballot test, conducted for Fox 10 News in Phoenix, sees Ms. Lake brandishing a 54-43% lead, the largest for either candidate in the entire general election campaign.  Insider Advantage’s chief pollster largely credits the major move toward Ms. Lake as a response to Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs refusal to participate in a televised debate. 
 
Contrasting the Governor’s result, the same polling sample posts Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly to a 45-43% lead over GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters.  At this point in the early voting reporting process, Republicans see a greater improvement when compared to their past performance than do Democrats.
 
New York:  Gov. Hochul Expands Lead:  After a co/efficient poll was released this week (10/18-19; 1,056 NY likely general election voters; live interview & text) giving US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) a one-point, 46-45%, edge over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), a new Civiqs data group survey (polling for Daily Kos Elections; 10/22-25; 593 likely general election voters; online) detects a much larger advantage for the Governor.  This ballot test projects Gov. Hochul topping Rep. Zeldin by eleven percentage points, 54-43%.
 
Oregon:  Dem Kotek Attacks Dem Gov. Brown:  With ten of the last twelve polls showing Republican former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) leading Democratic former state House Speaker Tina Kotek, the latter woman is attempting to put some distance between herself and unpopular Democratic Gov. Kate Brown.  Ms. Kotek is now claiming that in meetings with the state leadership that included Gov. Brown and Ms. Drazan, it was she, Ms. Kotek, who was the only person wanting to take action about the homeless crisis in Portland during the height of the city sector’s violence last year. 
 
The Kotek accusation, along with early voting reporting showing strong improvement for Republicans based upon their previous performance, suggests the Democrats’ internal data is also pointing toward unfavorable signs for Ms. Kotek’s candidacy just as we approach the campaign’s end.

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