Three polls from key 2020 presidential states were released yesterday and yielded rather predictable results. In Wisconsin, Marquette Law School released their quarterly statewide survey (5/3-7; 811 WI registered voters) and found former Vice President Joe Biden edging President Trump, 46-43%. In Ohio, Emerson College (5/8-10; 725 OH registered voters) sees the President topping Mr. Biden, 51-49%, in a poll where all respondents were pushed to make a choice. In the Lone Star State of Texas, Emerson (5/8-10; 800 TX registered voters) gives the President a 52-48% advantage.
While the Texas judiciary is in the middle of deciding lawsuits attempting to expand absentee balloting for the runoff and general elections, a new complaint was just filed that challenges the state’s current practice of not requiring a reason for voting absentee of people over age 65, but forcing anyone under that age threshold to provide a reason for not appearing in person. The lawsuit states that the practice is unconstitutional because it doesn’t treat all segments of the voting population equally.
Retired Air Force Colonel and former statewide Democratic nominee Kim Olson and local School Board member Candace Valenzuela look to be in a competitive Democratic congressional runoff now set for July 14th. Last week, former Housing & Urban Development Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Julian Castro endorsed Ms. Valenzuela in an effort to “unite Hispanics behind her candidacy.” Yesterday, both candidates released their post-primary report fundraising numbers and we see a competitive dollar battle here, too. Ms. Olson has accumulated $370,000 while Ms. Valenzuela had collected $305,000 during the same period.
The Texas Democratic Party leadership has decided to cancel its in-person state convention that was scheduled to occur between the June 4-6 period as part of COVID-19 precautions, and instead will handle the party business virtually. The state convention will move forward as planned, but party officers, dignitaries, delegates, alternate delegates, and guests will be participating online. Logistics are being planned for how the party officials and staff will organize and implement the online convention.
At this point, neither national party is converting to an online option, though Democratic officials, whose convention is scheduled first and will begin on July 13th, are reportedly in the process of discussing such an option. One top official was quoted as saying that since the Olympics, which were slated to start a week later than the DNC, are postponed for a year, that it would be appropriate for the party to adopt the online option. The Republican National Convention is not slated to begin until August 24th. Former Housing & Urban Development Secretary and presidential candidate Julian Castro (D) yesterday announced his endorsement for school board trustee and Texas runoff congressional candidate Candace Valenzuela in the open DFW area’s 24th Congressional District.
Ms. Valenzuela placed second in the March 3rd Democratic primary, trailing retired Air Force Colonel Kim Olson 51-40%. Both advance to the newly scheduled July 14th runoff election for the Democratic nomination because no candidate secured majority support. The Castro move is clearly designed to motivate Hispanics to participate in the runoff election and vote for the Hispanic candidate, which could be definitive in helping to determine the ultimate outcome. The district’s Hispanic population is 14 percent, but represents a disproportionately larger composition in a Democratic runoff electorate. Several Governor’s made decisions to either move their state’s primary or run-off election, or admitted considering changing the voting system. All of the moves are in relation to adopting COVID-19 precautions.
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) moved his state’s May 5th primary to June 2nd, which will now be a very significant primary day as many states are moving to what was an already crowded election day. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) transferred the state’s runoff election from March 31st to June 23rd. There is only one federal runoff in Mississippi, in the 2nd Congressional District, and the outcome will have no effect upon the general election as Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton/Mississippi Delta) is the prohibitive favorite to defeat whichever Republican becomes the party nominee. The North Carolina Board of Elections has moved the state’s lone congressional runoff, in the open Republican 11th District (Rep. Mark Meadows-R), from May 12th to June 23rd. The winner of the secondary GOP election will win in November. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) issued a letter over the weekend that indicated he is moving the state’s May 26th runoff that features many federal and state secondary elections to July 14th. Though Navy veteran Elisa Cardnell had qualified for the Democratic run-off in order to face freshman Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston), she has already conceded the party nomination to opponent Sima Ladjevardian and has requested that the Texas Secretary of State remove her name from the May 26th runoff ballot. Ms. Cardnell’s action is within the legal withdrawal period, so there will be no Democratic runoff in this district and Ms. Ladjevardian, an attorney and campaign advisor to former Congressman and presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, becomes Mr. Crenshaw’s opponent in November.
The Texas Republican runoff in the state’s 17th CD moves forward, and former Congressman Pete Sessions, attempting a comeback in a new district in returning to his boyhood home of Waco, received the endorsement of businessman George Hindman, the third place finisher in the March 3rd primary.
Mr. Sessions placed first with 32% of the vote followed by businesswoman Renee Swann, endorsed by outgoing Congressman Bill Flores (R-Bryan/College Station). She recorded 19% preference, as compared to Mr. Hindman’s 18% support. Combined with Sessions’ percentage, the two would equal a majority. The Texas runoff is May 26th. The GOP nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election. A new Remington Research survey (3/4-5; 1,044 TX-7 likely voters via automated response device) finds Republican challenger Wesley Hunt and freshman Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Houston) deadlocked with 45% support, apiece. The poll was begun a day after the Texas Republican primary when Mr. Hunt defeated three other GOP candidates with 61% of the vote. He and Rep. Fletcher are their respective party standard bearers for a general election that looks to be a hard fought, toss-up battle.
Former Congressman Pete Sessions successfully secured the first run-off position in his new 17th District effort, but who he will face in the May 26th secondary election is still unclear. Overseas and absentee ballots remain, and while candidate Renee Swann (R), endorsed by outgoing Congressman Bill Flores (R-Bryan/College Station), is almost a percentage point ahead of businessman George Hindman it is still not certain that she will advance.
The 17th District is safely Republican, so the GOP run-off will almost assuredly decide the next Representative’s identity. Mr. Sessions held a Dallas area district for 22 years until current Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) unseated him in 2018. He then moved back to his boyhood home of Waco to seek the 17th CD seat. |
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