Iraq War veteran James Mackler (D), who quickly raised over $1 million for the 2018 Senate race before ending his effort in favor of former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), announced yesterday that he will enter the 2020 open seat contest to replace retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R). He is the first person from either party to declare his candidacy.
Republicans will be favored to hold the seat especially since new Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) just defeating Mr. Bredesen, the Democrats’ best possible candidate, by a full eleven-percentage point margin. No Republican has yet step forward to become a candidate, probably because former Gov. Bill Haslam (R) made a statement last week confirming that he is at least considering running. The move likely froze the potential GOP field, which is likely to remain in limbo until the popular two-term chief executive makes his political intentions public. Immediately quelling some very early retirement rumors, Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) announced yesterday that he is definitely running for re-election in 2020. Mr. Cooper was elected to the 5th District in 2002, when then-incumbent Bob Clement (D-Nashville) ran unsuccessfully for Senate.
Jim Cooper was originally elected to Congress in 1982, when he won the 4th District seat after then-Rep. Al Gore (D) was re-districted into the new 6th CD. After serving six terms, Mr. Cooper ran for US Senate in 1994 but lost to the late Fred Thompson (R). Rep. Cooper has had little trouble winning re-election from the 5th District, one of only two solidly Democratic seats in Tennessee. He will again be a heavy favorite in 2020. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) released a statement yesterday announcing that he does not intend to seek re-election to a fourth term in 2020. Prior to being elected in 2002, Mr. Alexander had served as US Education Secretary under President George H.W. Bush, and as Tennessee Governor for two terms. Mr. Alexander is the only person in Tennessee history who served as both Governor and US Senator.
The Senate opening will ignite a large field of candidates seeking the office, particularly on the Republican side. Moves will soon be made, so this story will continue to develop. The Tennessee nominating primaries won’t be held until the first week of August in 2020. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) has not yet committed to running for a fourth term but releasing his new North Star Opinion Research poll (11/26-29; 600 TN likely voters) provides a good indication that he is looking to do so. According to the new survey, the Senator’s favorability index, the only numbers placed in the public domain, finds him at a very high 65:22% favorable to unfavorable. In the eastern Tennessee region, his ratio soars even higher to 72:18%. The third quarter Morning Consult approval ratings, however, posted Mr. Alexander to only a 43:33% overall positive rating.
The 78-year old Senator says he will make his political plans public before the end of this year. In 2014, he won re-nomination over state Rep. Joe Carr (R), 50-41%, and secured a landslide 62-32% victory in the 2014 general election. Rep-Elect John Rose (R-TN) announced yesterday that former Congressman Van Hilleary (R-TN) has agreed to serve as the new member’s chief of staff. Mr. Hilleary was first elected to the House in 1994 and served four terms before running unsuccessfully for Governor in 2002, losing a tight 51-48% contest to former Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen. As we will remember, Mr. Bredesen ran for Senate this year and fell to Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood). Mr. Hilleary also became a US Senate candidate in 2006 but lost the Republican primary to future Sen. Bob Corker (R).
Interestingly, Mr. Hilleary is the second former Congressman returning in a staff role for the next session. Earlier, incoming Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) announced that she has hired former Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ) to run her district office program. The Siena College/New York Times polling series returned numbers for the open Tennessee race. Their data (10/8-11; 593 TN likely voters from 28,670 attempted calls) finds Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) opening up a double-digit lead over former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), a whopping 54-40% spread.
The Siena/NYT survey is the strongest public poll recorded for Ms. Blackburn, though others are also showing her with leads beyond the margin of error. YouGov (10/2-5; 871 TN likely voters) found her advantage at 50-42%. Fox News (9/29-10/2; 666 TN likely voters) projected a 48-43% Blackburn edge. Fox News, polling through the Anderson Robbins survey research firm (D) and Shaw & Company (R), released new data for six US Senate campaigns. The only two with clear advantages for one candidate came from North Dakota where Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has a 53-41% lead over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). The other finds Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) leading former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 48-43%.
The remainder are all clearly within the polling margin of error: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) leading Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) in the Arizona race, 47-45%; Sen. Bill Nelson (D) edging Gov. Rick Scott (R), 47-46%, in Florida; Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) posting a two-point lead over businessman Mike Braun (R), 43-41%; and, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) tied at 43%, apiece. The open Tennessee Senate race continues to move back and forth between former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) and US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood). The latest Vox Populi survey sums it up, well. According to their latest poll (9/16-18; 567 TN “active” voters), the two candidates are tied at 42% apiece on the first ballot test question. When pushed for an answer, an additional nine percent lean toward Bredesen as opposed to seven percent more preferring Blackburn.
Earlier in the month, CNN released their Tennessee poll (9/11-15; 723 TN likely voters) that placed Mr. Bredesen up 50-45%. But, during the same time period, Triton Research & Polling (9/10-12; 1,038 TN registered voters) found Blackburn riding in front, 48-45%. Out of state groups are coming in hard for Bredesen, but Blackburn has raised more campaign money. October promises to be an interesting month in the Volunteer State. Like in Arizona, the Fox Poll also asked the open Governor’s race question in their Tennessee Senate poll. While showing Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) leading former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 47-44%, Republican businessman Bill Lee has opened up a commanding 55-35% advantage over former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (D) in the Governor’s campaign. The Fox Poll interviewed 809 Tennessee registered voters, 686 of whom self-identified as likely voters.
The open Tennessee Senate race between former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) and US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) has been close for weeks, and a new NBC News/Marist College poll (8/25-28; 940 TN adults; 730 TN registered voters; 538 TN likely voters) again finds the candidates rivaling each other in toss-up range.
According to the NBC/Marist likely voters data, Mr. Bredesen clings to a 48-46% edge over Ms. Blackburn despite this particular polling sample giving President Trump 47:43% positive job approval rating and Republicans an eight point 50-42% advantage when testing the generic congressional ballot. Though the poll did not report the crosstabs, it is clear that Ms. Blackburn is lagging behind her benchmarks with Republicans since the Trump and generic data is pro-GOP. |
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