So far, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has enjoyed strong leads in his general election campaign with Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R). In twelve polls from nine different pollsters conducted a month after the March 3rd primary until the present, Mr. Cooper has averaged 51.8% preference as opposed to Mr. Forest’s 36.2 percent.
Now, however, Gravis Marketing released the results of their one-day flash poll (6/17; 631 NC registered voters), which forecasts the two candidates languishing in a 46-46% tie. We will soon see if this poll is an outlier or is the first to detect a new developing trend in this gubernatorial campaign. Recently data from across the country and in key battleground states have forecast a strong advantage for Democratic nominee-designate Joe Biden over President Trump. A new Change Research polling series of seven polls, six stemming from their national polling sample (6/12-14; 1,250 US likely general election voters with subsets in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI) finds the President gaining in his must-win states.
The national ballot test continues to give Biden a wide 51-41% national margin, but, as is the case with such polling, the Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the big states skews the overall popular vote count. Additionally, as we saw in 2016, the national count is irrelevant in electing a US President. In the key states, however, Change Research, which is a Democratic pollster, finds Trump to be within 1-4 points in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and down by seven points in Florida. It is these battlegrounds that will truly decide the November election. The House Freedom Action organization is running an ad attacking NC-11 Republican runoff candidate Madison Cawthorn, but their research may be lacking. They accuse Mr. Cawthorn of being a “party boy,” yet he has been in a wheelchair for several years after a horrific vehicular accident that almost claimed his life. The ad then says that being in Congress would be Cawthorn’s first job. Yet, he owns a real estate investment company. Finally, they describe the candidate they are supporting, Republican Lynda Bennett, as being a political outsider, yet she is a former Haywood County Republican Party chair, which is a long way from being a so-called “political outsider.”
We may be hearing more about this ad and the North Carolina runoff to replace now White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows before the June 23rd election date. Three different pollsters report new presidential data coming from the critical state of North Carolina. Each project different margins, yet the cumulative conclusion is, not surprisingly, that the race languishes in toss-up mode.
Public Policy Polling (6/2-3; 949 NC registered voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-45%; Change Research (5/29-31; 806 NC likely general election voters) finds Mr. Biden’s edge to be only 46-45%; finally, Harper Polling (5/25-28; 500 NC likely general election voters) sees the President posting a 47-44% advantage. Regardless of which candidate is leading, all three pollsters find the two men within in the margin of polling error. In 2016, while trailing for most of the race, President Trump carried the state, 50-46 percent. Coming off four consecutive April-May polls that found Sen. Thom Tillis (R) trailing Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham, East Carolina University just released their latest data (5/7-9; 1,111 NC registered voters) that sees the Senator rebounding to take a slight 41-40% advantage. The previous May poll from the Civiqs organization for the Daily Kos Elections website (5/2-4; 1,362 NC registered voters) projected Mr. Cunningham to a large 50-41% lead.
Interestingly, though the detected margin between the candidates in the two polls was much different, each found Sen. Tillis pulling 41% support. The aforementioned East Carolina University poll (see North Carolina Senate above) also tested the 2020 Governor’s campaign. Since the March 3rd primary, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has been substantially leading Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) in polling, and the ECU model is no exception. According to the university data, Gov. Cooper enjoys a 51-36% lead, consistent with the other seven post-primary published surveys.
With the FBI wanting to search Sen. Richard Burr’s (R) financial records regarding stock transactions executed after receiving COVID-19 briefings, speculation is buzzing about what would happen to the Senate seat if this eventually leads to a Burr resignation. The Senator next comes before the voters in 2022, but he said even before being re-elected in 2018 that he would not seek further re-election.
North Carolina is one of three states that has a law requiring a Governor to appoint a member of the departing incumbent’s political party should a US Senate vacancy occur. Therefore, in the event of a North Carolina vacancy, for example, the state Republican Party would present Democratic Roy Cooper a list of three replacement potentials of which he must choose one. CNN conducted a nationwide political poll (5/7-10; 1,112 US adults; 1,001 registered voters; 302 over sample in 15 battleground states) and compared the national results to those found in 15 battleground states. The latter group included the typical swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but also added Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia, places where former Vice President Joe Biden has developed significant leads.
On the national count, as found in most other polls, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 51-46%, but the numbers are virtually reversed, 52-45%, in Mr. Trump’s favor within the all-important battleground states. North Carolina, one of President Trump’s key core states that he must win, is often in the swing category. In the new Civiqs statewide poll (5/2-4; 1,362 NC registered voters; online from a research pool of respondents that Civiqs invited to participate), Civiqs finds former Vice President Joe Biden holding a slight 49-46% edge over President Trump. North Carolina will be a focal point state again in this election cycle. We can also expect the continuous polling to seesaw all the way to election day. This would be a similar pattern to what occurred in the 2016 presidential race and in several recent US Senate contests.
Already, the North Carolina Senate race, expected to be one of the nation’s top statewide contests, has drawn its share of political polling. All the results show a close race, which is predicted in the state that has defeated more incumbent Senators than any other. Yesterday’s Survey USA poll falls in line with the other polling firms that project a tight contest.
According to the S-USA data (4/23-26; 580 NC likely general election voters), former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) has a slight 41-39% edge over first-term Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. We can expect a plethora of polling here in the coming months for this race and the presidential contest that figures to be equally close. |
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