​North Carolina Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) won his seat in a special election in 2019, a result that surprised some political observers.  As a big favorite for re-election to a full term, little in the way of national attention has been paid to the seat since the previous Democratic candidate and party structure spent approximately $20 million over two campaigns only to come away empty.  A new poll, however, finds little-known Democratic nominee Cynthia Wallace actually pulling to within two points of Rep. Bishop. 
 
Public Policy Polling (10/28-29; 750 voters; interactive voice response system) sees Rep. Bishop carrying only a 45-43% edge in this highly competitive region and state.  This race, too, may be another to watch on election night.

North Carolina, one of the critical states in the 2020 election for both President and Senate, also reports detailed early voting statistics.  Currently, 852,013 absentee votes have been returned from 1,448,960 who requested the mail ballots for a present return rate of 58.8%.  This is in addition to the people who have voted early in-person. 
 
The overall participation percentages from Democrats, Republicans, and Unaffiliated voters have all greatly increased.  A total of 57.0% of registered voters have already returned ballots or voted in person.  The Republican number is 54.4%, and the Unaffiliated segment returns at 46.7%.  In 2016, those percentages were 36.9%, 36.2%, and 29.0%, respectively.  Republicans, for the first time in early voting history, led an in-person vote day, and it has now happened seven times during the 2020 early voting period.  All age groups are reporting an uptick in participation with the exception of the 45-65 segment, which is down 3.1% in comparison to 2016.

​Another pair of polls were released for the tightening and pivotal North Carolina Senate race.  Public Policy Polling (10/26-27; 886 NC voters; interactive response device) still finds Democratic former state Senator Cal Cunningham running slightly ahead of Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47-44%.  The Trafalgar Group (10/20-22; 1,098 NC likely voters; combination live interview, text, & online), on the other hand, gives Sen. Tillis the slight lead, 49-47%.  North Carolina continues to be one of the most important of the 16 competitive seats on the 2020 Senate election board.

​Democratic former state Sen. Cal Cunningham has been leading North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in the polls for months.  An extra-marital affair becoming public may be reining Cunningham in, however.  We still see a large swing between various surveys, but two pollsters are clearly showing a narrowing of his earlier lead; down from the 11, 10, and 10-point margins that Data for Progress, Survey USA, and RMG Research posted earlier in the month. 
 
The Civiqs organization, polling for the Daily Kos Elections site (10/11-14; 1,211 NC likely voters; online) projects Mr. Cunningham to a six-point, 51-45%, advantage.  Emerson College (10/13-14; 711 NC likely voters; interactive voice response system), however, sees a much tighter affair.  Their ballot test result is a bare 45-44%, again in Cunningham’s favor.  

​After we reported on the Monmouth University, Ipsos organization, and Morning Consult’s released data two days ago, we now see a pair of polling organizations interjecting even newer results.  Siena College/New York Times (10/9-13; 627 NC likely voters; live interview) sees Democrat Cal Cunningham holding a four-point lead over Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 41-37%.  Susquehanna Polling & Research was also in the field during a portion of the Siena/NYT sampling period (10/7-11; 500 NC likely voters; live interview) and projects an even tighter contest than all of the aforementioned, 46-44%, again in Mr. Cunningham’s favor. 
 
These polls were conducted after the Cunningham extra-marital affairs became public, and the data is suggesting that while he is surviving the hit, his margin over Sen. Tillis is dissipating.

​Despite stories becoming public that Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham is engaged in more than one extra-marital affair, new polling suggests the issue hasn’t dramatically moved the electorate. 
 
The Morning Consult research firm conducted a series of US Senate polls around the country (10/2-11; 1,993 NC likely voters; online through a pre-selected sampling universe) and tested the North Carolina race.  Their results find Mr. Cunningham still leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47-41%, which tracks with Monmouth University’s registered voter results (10/8-11; 500 NC likely voters; live interview) that project a 48-44% Cunningham edge.  The Ipsos firm (10/7-13; 660 NC likely voters; online) also finds a four-point spread, 46-42 percent.

​A federal court judge in North Carolina ruled on an election procedure challenge lawsuit on Friday.  While not agreeing to lessen the absentee ballot requirements even further, as the plaintiffs were requesting, he did extend the post-election ballot reception period even beyond the November 6th deadline.  Now, ballots can still be received and counted as long as they are received by November 12th, meaning nine full days after the election.

In two polls conducted largely before the Cunningham sexting scandal broke, national online pollster Ipsos and local East Carolina University just released divergent North Carolina US Senate results.  Ipsos (9/29-10/6; 601 NC likely voters; online) finds Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham leading first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R), by five percentage points, 47-42%.  This is consistent with the Public Policy Polling survey released earlier in the week that detected a six-point spread.  Both of these show a tightening of the race, however, from the Hart Research Associates and ALG Research that found 13 and 12 point respective leads in their late September surveys. 
 
East Carolina (10/2-4; 1,232 NC likely voters; interactive voice response system and online), on the other hand, sees a further narrowing to the point of Tillis coming all the way back to take a one-point lead, 47-46%.  It again appears clear, that with one month remaining in the campaign cycle, this critical Senate race is a long way from being decided.  

​Public Policy Polling went into the field almost immediately after it was revealed that Democratic US Senate nominee Cal Cunningham had been “sexting” with a married woman.  The PPP survey (10/4-5; 911 NC voters; interactive voice response system) finds Mr. Cunningham leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 48-42%, which is an improvement for the incumbent from the two last polls that found him trailing by 12 and 13 points, respectively. 
 
As to the question regarding the texting scandal, 58% of the respondents indicated they had heard about this story, which broke on Friday, and 42% said they were unfamiliar.  A total of 3% said they were now more likely to vote for Cunningham as compared to a much larger 37% who said they are less likely to support him.  A total of 58% indicated the texting flap will make no difference in their vote.

With 33 days remaining in the early voting cycle, North Carolina election authorities report that already 300,000+ individuals have cast their ballots in the Tar Heel State elections.  This already breaks a previous high record for mail voting participation.  It is difficult to project overall turnout from this number because there is no way of telling just how many people comprising this group are new voters. 
 
In any event, turnout for the election cycle is expected to be high, and potentially record breaking.   Therefore, this early glimpse into the participation matrix lends credence to the supposition that we could see the highest presidential turnout ever.