Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham’s campaign released their third quarter financial figures, which show fundraising receipts of an incredible $28.3 million, far beyond any number so far reported for this period. It is clear that Mr. Cunningham is in position to potentially overwhelm Sen. Thom Tillis (R) with resources in the closing days.
We now see a second brilliant corners Research & Strategies survey projecting a close race between four-term Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Concord) and former state Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D). The new survey, conducted for the Timmons-Goodson campaign (9/28; 614 NC-8 likely voters; internal flash poll), again gives Mr. Hudson a two-point lead, 44-42%. In late July, the campaign first released their internal data that found a very similar 43-41% split. Like all other districts in North Carolina, the state Supreme Court redrew the 8th District for this 2020 election.
Two more polls were released in the Tar Heel State Senate race from sampling groups conducted within the same relative time period, and this time the swing is nine percentage points between the YouGov and Meredith College polling entities. According to YouGov (9/22-25; 1,213 NC registered voters; online; weighted) former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) leads Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 48-38%, while Meredith (9/18-22; 705 NC registered voters; online) finds the margin between the two candidates only at one point, 43-42%.
The Carolina Senate race has swung wildly in the above described manner for months, but Mr. Cunningham has enjoyed the edge in almost all polls. A total of 20 research studies have been conducted of this North Carolina contest during the month of September alone. CNN (conducted through the SSRS statistical firm; 9/9-13; 787 NC likely voters; live interview through landline and mobile phones) just completed a new Tar Heel State survey and finds Joe Biden topping President Trump, 49-46%, which is statistically within the polling margin of error. The data tracks with other published polls and actually places both candidates in position to win the state. North Carolina, however, is a must-win domain for President Trump.
The aforementioned CNN survey (see North Carolina President above) also tested the combative US Senate campaign between first-term incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D). While Mr. Cunningham has established leads throughout the summer and into September, CNN finds the race again closing to a virtual tie. According to their result, Mr. Cunningham’s lead has dropped to a single percentage point, 47-46%.
Again, the aforementioned CNN survey (see North Carolina President above) also examined the state’s gubernatorial campaign between first-term incumbent Roy Cooper (D) and Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R). The CNN data confirms all other polling that gives Governor Cooper, who also won four statewide elections as state Attorney General, a substantial advantage. On the ballot test, Gov. Cooper is staked to a 53-44% margin over Mr. Forest.
Pollsters are active across the country in testing political campaigns and seem to be routinely delivering starkly different results for the same contests over a similar time frame. We have four such examples in Senate races.
Three different pollsters tested the Arizona Senate race between appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D). While the three polling firms active during the first week of September all find Mr. Kelly leading, the point spread ranges from six all the way to 17 points. The high pollster for Kelly is Fox News (8/29-9/1; 772 AZ likely voters) and the six-point low is Democratic pollster Change Research (9/4-6; 470 AZ likely voters). Four pollsters were testing Michigan in early September, and the spread here ranges from a one-point deficit for Republican businessman John James opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D) to a dozen percentage points. Here, the most favorable James pollster is the Republican Tarrance Group (9/1-3; 569 MI registered voters) and the strongest Sen. Peters’ survey comes from the London, England based Redfield & Wilton Strategies (8/30-9/3; 967 MI likely voters). The Minnesota race between Sen. Tina Smith (D) and former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R) is attracting more attention. Three survey research firms were conducting polls in early September and found Sen. Smith’s advantage extending between two and eleven points. The high Smith poll came from Survey USA (9/4-7; 553 MN likely voters) and the best for Mr. Lewis is from Republican Harper Polling (8/30-9/1; 501 MN likely voters). North Carolinians are regularly polled, and the beginning of September is no exception. Again, brandishing wide ranges, seven surveys and/or iterations within such were conducted during the same time frame, and the margin stretches between an even race for Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Senator Cal Cunningham (D) to a ten-point spread. The even poll came from Monmouth University’s (8/29-9/1; 401 NC likely voters) low turnout model (but the high turnout model suggested only a two-point difference), while the high spike came for Mr. Cunningham from Redfield & Wilton Strategies (8/30-9/3; 951 NC likely voters). As is seemingly typical in North Carolina campaign years, polling in the Tar Heel State appears inconsistent. Again, we see two pollsters simultaneously in the field arriving at much different results. Fox News released their latest NC survey (8/29-9/1; 722 NC likely voters) that projects Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham leading Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, 48-42%. Conversely, East Carolina University, in the field during the same period (8/29-30; 1,101 NC likely voters), forecasts a 44-44% tie in the Senate race.
Presidential numbers are also diverse. Fox finds Joe Biden leading President Trump, 50-46%, while ECU sees a 49-47% Trump edge. The result diversity is another indication that the North Carolina presidential race is a toss-up, and that Mr. Cunningham likely enjoys a slight lead in the Senate campaign. Both races, however, should be considered within the polling margin of error. Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places. Since the middle of June, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator, has been leading the North Carolina Senate race polling. This, in a state that has defeated more incumbent Senators than any other in the modern political era. The new Morning Consult Tar Heel State survey (8/14-23; 1,541 NC likely voters; online through a pre-determined sampling universe) finds Mr. Cunningham leading Sen. Tillis, 47-39%.
The Morning Consult survey is the 24th poll taken of the NC race since mid-June, the last time that Sen. Tillis led in a poll. Among these 24, Mr. Cunningham led in 21 surveys from between three and 16 points. Three of the surveys found the two candidates tied. By contrast, in the last seven North Carolina polls, President Trump has led in four with one tie. Mr. Trump did trail, however, 46-49%, in this same Morning Consult survey. |
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