A pair of Rep. Eliot Engel’s (D-Bronx) Democratic primary opponents have joined forces. Middle School principal Jamaal Bowman appears to be the 16-term incumbent’s top opponent, and now educator Andom Ghebreghiorgis has ended his campaign and endorsed Mr. Bowman. The 16th District is heavily Democratic (Clinton ’16: 75-22%) so the victor in the June 23rd primary wins the general election. Republicans did not even file a candidate.
Rep. Engel, now chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is favored to win re-nomination but his vote percentage will likely be down. Despite his withdrawal, Mr. Ghebreghiorgis’ name remains on the ballot. Last week the New York State Board of Elections canceled the Democratic presidential vote even though the state primary for all other offices is occurring the same day. Lawsuits then were filed – former presidential candidate Andrew Yang is one of the plaintiffs – to reinstate the vote saying that people still deserve the right to cast their ballots even though the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
A federal judge sitting in New York City reinstated the primary saying that other candidates could still win delegates that might influence the party platform at the Democratic National Convention. Therefore, pending appeal, the New York presidential primary is back on the schedule. The New York qualified candidates list was released yesterday for the state’s June 23rd primary election. From the 27 congressional districts, 23 incumbents are seeking re-election. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) is the only unopposed incumbent and effectively re-elected. Among the other 22 incumbents seeking another term, 13 have primary opposition.
Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn) and Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) face re-matches with competitive 2018 primary challengers. Reps. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City), Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez (D-Bronx), and Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) also face credible opponents. Three seats are open, all with crowded nomination candidate fields, while the 27th District will host a special election to fill the balance of the current term along with the regular primary vote. An active primary day in the Empire State is expected, and the separate candidate fields in the 27th District special election and regular Republican primary puts GOP nominee Chris Jacobs, a Buffalo area state Senator, in the unique position of having to simultaneously campaign in a primary and a general election on the same election day but against different opponents. Citing the lack of needing the New York presidential primary to nominate former Vice President Joe Biden, the New York State Board of Elections has canceled the presidential primary from the June 23rd New York state primary ballot. Presumably, all of the Empire State’s delegates will be awarded to Mr. Biden. This is a fairly common practice in both parties when a nomination is unofficially secured, or an incumbent is seeking re-election.
At least one person isn’t happy with the decision, however. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang says he plans to file a lawsuit to overturn the Board’s decision stating that New York Democratic voters should have the right to participate in the nomination process. Yesterday, former CNBC news anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (D) announced that she had raised over $1 million in just 47 days since her official challenge to noted New York freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez (D-Bronx) began. Ms. Caruso-Cabrera says she will report approximately $800,000 cash-on-hand.
Rep. Ocascio-Cortez, however, even at the end of 2019, had almost $3 million at her disposal. The Chamber of Commerce also announced an endorsement of Ms. Caruso-Cabrera. Though we will see substantial spending between now and the June 23rd primary, it is unclear just how vulnerable Rep. Ocascio-Cortez may be within her own party. On successive days, stories have floated in regional and national publications that former Vice President Joe Biden’s lock on the Democratic presidential nomination may not be such a foregone conclusion. The articles’ premise that drafting a candidate such as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is even a remote possibility at this point is not substantiated through any vote count.
For a brokered convention to now occur means convincing enough Democrats in the remaining 25 states and territories to support a candidate other than Biden in order to deny him a majority on the first ballot. Such would force a second ballot at which time delegates could begin peeling away from Biden and toward Cuomo or another candidate. Keep in mind that Mr. Biden only needs to commit 46% of the remaining 1,688 bound first ballot delegates in the remaining states and territories to clinch the nomination. In the post-Super Tuesday primaries that have been held after becoming clear that the former Vice President is now the prohibitive front runner, Mr. Biden has averaged 53.9% of the aggregate vote. The Sunrise Movement, described by some as a left-wing extremist environmental group, announced it is targeting two major Democratic US House committee chairmen in their respective party primaries. Both Reps. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Eliot Engel (D-NY) have announced primary opposition. So far, Sunrise supported Democratic primary challengers have won one race, Marie Newman over Rep. Dan Lipinski in Illinois, but failed against Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and Bobby Rush (D-IL).
The Sunrise Movement organization is now backing Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse against Mr. Neal who is chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee. The Massachusetts primary won’t be held until September 1st, so this race has some time to develop. Mr. Morse is Rep. Neal’s only announced Democratic opponent but the candidate filing deadline does not expire until May 5th. Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Engel’s top opponent is local Bronx middle school principal Jamaal Bowman who, in addition to Sunrise Movement’s support, also has the Working Families Party endorsement. The WFP backing is significant because this could give Mr. Bowman the option of advancing into the general election even if he loses the Democratic primary. At this time, four other Democrats are also in the primary race, which is scheduled for June 23rd, and little time still remains for others to file since the New York candidate filing deadline is fast approaching on April 2nd. So far, there is no indication that the New York election calendar will change. Governors and election officials in several more states are making changes in their election calendars due to COVID-19 virus precautions.
The Alaska presidential primary will now be an all-mail operation. Therefore, the deadline for sending in ballots has been moved from April 4th to April 10th. The state primary remains scheduled for August 18th. Hawaii officials have cancelled the in-person option for the April 4th presidential primary. Instead, the election will be conducted solely through the mail. The state primary remains on August 8th. The New York Attorney General has recommended to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) that the state’s presidential primary remain on April 28th but be conducted through the mail. No action has yet occurred regarding changing the June 23rd state primary election date. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who postponed the March 17th presidential and state primary and potentially moved it to June 2nd, is considering changing to an all-mail system. This is largely because thousands have votes were already cast through the mail in anticipation of the originally scheduled primary. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has reached an agreement with Republican legislative leaders to move the April 28th presidential and state primary to June 2nd. An announcement of such is imminent. The Puerto Rico presidential primary has been transferred from March 29th to April 26th. Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) also signed an executive order moving the state’s presidential primary from April 28th to June 2nd. The state primary will remain set for September 1st. New York City Councilman Fernando Cabrera announced yesterday that he is ending his Democratic primary congressional bid against noted freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez (D-Bronx) and will instead run for Bronx Borough president. Upon his exit, however, Mr. Cabrera endorsed another Democratic opponent to the Congresswoman, former CNBC News anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera who is attacking Ms. Ocascio-Cortez from her right. Narrowing the field will help a strong challenger, but it is highly likely that the freshman House member will be nominated for a second term.
Much has been made about freshman New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasico-Cortez’s (D-Bronx) rise to national political prominence and eight Republicans have announced their candidacies against her in a district where a GOP candidate has little chance. Yesterday, however, former CNBC reporter and author Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, who promotes free enterprise over socialism, announced that she will challenge Ocascio-Cortez for re-nomination in the Democratic primary. Though this is the only type of race that could potentially cause the freshman incumbent political trouble, it is still likely that she will easily win the primary election. The June 23rd contest, however, may become more interesting and voters will have a clear choice in which path to follow.
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