Emerson College took its turn at surveying the Granite State Democratic electorate in anticipation of the February 11th first-in-the-nation primary. The Emerson poll (1/13-16; 657 NH likely Democratic primary voters) projects Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to have taken a 23-18-14-14-10% lead over former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Following are Andrew Yang (8%), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and billionaire Tom Steyer (4%).
The results are an obvious bump for Sen. Sanders and a downturn for Mr. Biden. Additionally, this is the first time any New Hampshire poll has found Sen. Klobuchar climbing into double digits. Patinkin Research Strategies conducted their New Hampshire poll in anticipation of the February 11th primary vote (1/5-7; 600 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and they and RKM Research and Communications (1/8-12; 474 NH likely Democratic primary voters) both see three candidates on track to qualify for delegate apportionment, but as to which three is open to contention.
Patinkin finds former Vice President Joe Biden pulling ahead with 21% of the vote, just slightly ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) 19 percent. In third, but with a qualifying percentage of 17, is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. According to Patinkin, Sen. Warren is falling back to just 10% support. RKM, however, also finds Mr. Biden closely ahead of Sen. Sanders, 25-22%, with Sen. Warren returning to her more typical support level of 18 percent. They see Mayor Buttigieg as the candidate who is falling back, only recording 7% preference in this particular poll. We can expect to see further fluidity among the candidates as we approach primary election day. Monmouth University released its latest New Hampshire polling numbers, now just one month before actual voting begins in the February 11th primary. According to the survey (1/3-7; 404 NH likely Democratic primary voters), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) would be in a virtual tie with a 20-19-18% respective division. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closely trails with 18%. New Hampshire has only 24 delegates but, as the first-in-the-nation primary, the Granite State is a national trend setter.
The New Hampshire-based American Research Group conducted a new statewide survey (12/12-16; 539 NH registered voters) and tested former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski (R) against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). The ballot test unsurprisingly gives the Senator a commanding 58-35% lead but the more likely candidate to face her, retired Army General Don Bolduc (R), was not tested. Though Mr. Lewandowski has not specifically ruled out challenging Sen. Shaheen, there is no tangible indication that he is planning to run. Gen. Bolduc, however, is building a campaign.
For the first time, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has been projected in first place in New Hampshire. The MassInc survey for Boston public radio WBUR (12/3-8; 442 NH likely Democratic primary voters) finds Mayor Buttigieg taking a very slight 18-17-15-12% lead over former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. In effect, we see a four-way race building in the Granite State, with a large undecided factor. The New Hampshire primary is in two months, scheduled for February 11th.
New Hampshire’s eastern district electorate has defeated more incumbents since 2006 than other CD in the country. Former state Republican Party Vice-Chairman, ex-Dover City Councilman, and Air Force veteran Matt Mayberry (R) says he will soon launch a congressional challenge to freshman Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester).
Though New Hampshire hosts the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, its state nomination calendar is one of the latest in the 2020 election cycle. The primary election is scheduled for September 8th, with a candidate filing deadline on June 12th. Therefore, much time remains before the potential contenders must declare their intentions. The Suffolk University pollsters also detect sound movement for Mayor Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire. According to SU (11/21-24; 500 NH likely Democratic primary voters), Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the tightly packed group with 16% support, followed closely by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14%, and Mayor Buttigieg close behind with 13%. Former Vice President Joe Biden drops back to 12%, while Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), businessman Andrew Yang, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) follow with preference factors of 6, 4, and 3%, respectively.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has been making headlines lately because he has proven his competitiveness within the the Democratic presidential field in Iowa and appears to be gaining steam in New Hampshire. In the rest of the country, Buttigieg-mania has not yet taken hold. According to two new national surveys, Mayor Buttigieg remains in high single digits nationally.
HarrisX (11/16-17; 449 US likely Democratic primary voters) finds Mr. Buttigieg the first choice of only 7% of their small national sample, similar to where he has been throughout most of the campaign. By contrast, former Vice President Joe Biden, the leader in the HarrisX survey, commands 30% preference. The Morning Consult organization (11/11-17; 17,050 likely Democratic primary voters; online) draws a similar conclusion. In their data, Mayor Buttigieg posts 8% while poll leader Biden captures 32%. These polls are significant in the fact that one is a small sample survey (HarrisX) and the other is large (Morning Consult). This tells us that Mr. Buttigieg has not yet become a national candidate. International pollster YouGov conducted simultaneous surveys in the first four voting states and finds former Vice President Joe Biden having trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire but doing well in Nevada and South Carolina. All of the surveys were conducted between Nov 6-13, with sampling sizes ranging from 570 to 877 likely Democratic voters.
In Iowa, Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tied with just 22% apiece. Following in a virtual three-way tie is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 21%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closely trails with 19%. Mr. Biden is significantly behind Sen. Warren in New Hampshire (31-22%), while Sen. Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg record 20 and 16%, respectively. Conversely, Mr. Biden opens up a lead in Nevada, 33-23-21-9%, over Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, where, in South Carolina, the former Vice President is staked to a wide 45-17-15-8% advantage over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. The question that can’t yet be answered is whether Mr. Biden could withstand losing the first two nominating events without weakening his vote base in Nevada and South Carolina. Quinnipiac University is reporting the results of their latest New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary survey (11/6-10; 1,134 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and it appears a legitimate four-way race is evolving in the Granite State. The numerical totals show the four top candidates all within six percentage points, as former Vice President Joe Biden leads Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 20-16-15-14%, respectively. The results also might qualify US Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) for the December debate since she notched a 6% finish in a First Four state from a designated pollster.
Though New Hampshire has only 24 first ballot delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention, a victory, or upset finish, goes a long way to igniting national momentum. |
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