Last week we reported that former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin (D), who was Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz’s running mate until the latter individual’s untimely death, had decided to replace him in the Democratic primary race. Under Maryland election law, the named Lt. Governor running mate in such a situation can ascend to the Governor’s position, officially withdraw the ticket, or name another individual to replace the deceased candidate.
This week, state authorities informed Ms. Ervin that while she can now run for Governor in Mr. Kamenetz’s place, her name will not appear on the ballot because it is too late to reverse the printing. Therefore, Ms. Ervin will have to convince her voters to continue to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz in order for the tallies to count for her. Obviously, this procedure lessens her nomination chances. She faces Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP president Ben Jealous, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County) in the June 26th party primary. The winner opposes Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the fall. --Jim Ellis Last week it was widely reported that Maryland gubernatorial candidate Kevin Kamenetz, the Baltimore County Executive, suddenly passed away. Before his untimely death, Mr. Kamenetz had formed a ticket with former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin who was his choice for Lt. Governor. Under Maryland election law, Ms. Ervin is empowered to make a decision regarding continuing the campaign. She could automatically assume the top position on the ticket, withdraw the ticket from the race, or appoint a new candidate to replace the late Mr. Kamenetz.
Yesterday, Ms. Ervin announced she would continue the Kamenetz campaign and run for Governor. She then named former Baltimore School Board member Marisol Johnson as her own running mate. The Maryland primary is June 26th. Ms. Ervin is now campaigning against Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP President Ben Jealous, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County), among others. The winner then challenges Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the general election. --Jim Ellis Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, who was one of the leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates, suffered a heart attack early yesterday morning and suddenly passed away at the age of 60. His passing leaves not only a void in statewide Democratic politics but also in Baltimore local government. Since Mr. Kamenetz chose an official running mate, former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin (D), she has until next Thursday to make a decision about her ticket’s status. Under state law, Ms. Ervin can elevate herself to the gubernatorial position, invite another person to take Mr. Kamenetz’s place, or withdraw the ticket from the ballot. The latest available campaign finance report showed the Kamenetz campaign had raised over $1 million, a war chest that Ms. Ervin will inherit if she decides to become the gubernatorial candidate.
--Jim Ellis The just-released Goucher Poll (4/14-19; 617 MD adults) finds Gov. Larry Hogan (R) remaining in strong shape as he prepares for his re-election campaign. According to the survey, a whopping 69% of the respondents approve of the job he is doing as Governor versus just 21% who disapprove. Fifty-three percent believe Maryland is headed in the right direction, while 28% say the state has gone “off on the wrong track.”
Gov. Hogan fares well against his potential Democratic opponent as the state primary approaches on June 26th. Against Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker (D), the Governor’s margin is 44-31%. If Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz were to win the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Mr. Hogan’s advantage would be 45-28%. Former NAACP president Ben Jealous falls in similar territory. He would also trail the Governor 44-31% if he were the Democratic nominee. --Jim Ellis A new Burton Research & Strategies survey (3/4-8; 10-11; 600 MD registered voters) finds Gov. Larry Hogan (R) expanding his previously published polling leads over Democrats Rushern Baker and Kevin Kamenetz. When paired with Mr. Baker, the Prince Georges County Executive, Gov. Hogan scores a 50-29% major advantage. If Mr. Kamenetz, the Baltimore County Executive, were his opponent the Governor’s margin grows to an even larger 57-26%.
Though Mr. Hogan’s approval numbers are among the strongest of all Governors, Maryland’s Democratic voting legacy will eventually make the general election a close affair. While seven other Democrats are in the gubernatorial race, including former NAACP President Ben Jealous, the Burton group only released numbers associated with Messrs. Baker and Kamenetz. --Jim Ellis Mason-Dixon Polling & Research also took a look at the developing Maryland gubernatorial campaign. Here, despite representing one of the most loyal of Democratic states, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan maintains excellent job approval ratings. According to this latest poll (2/20-22; 625 MD registered voters), the Governor’s favorability index is 63:26% positive to negative.
The approval rating also translates into substantial leads for him in the ballot test. Against Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, who leads in Democratic primary polling, Gov. Hogan would score a 51-36% margin. If Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz were the Democratic nominee, the Governor’s margin would be a similar 49-34%. Should NAACP president Ben Jealous advance to the general election, Gov. Hogan’s preference rating is 50-33%. --Jim Ellis A new Goucher Poll (2/12-17; 800 MD adults; 658 MD registered voters) finds Sen. Ben Cardin (D) crushing convicted US spy Chelsea Manning in the upcoming June 26th Democratic primary. According to the Goucher data, Sen. Cardin begins the race with a 61-17% advantage, which is likely an insurmountable margin for the flawed challenger to overcome. Sen. Cardin is seen as a sure bet to be re-nominated and win a third term in the general election.
--Jim Ellis The same Goucher Poll cited above in the Maryland Senate section also tested the upcoming Governor’s race. Incumbent Republican Larry Hogan, despite representing one of America’s most Democratic states, still enjoys a strong 61% positive favorability rating. In the race for the Democratic nomination, three candidates are bunched near the top, but no one with clear strong support.
Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker is first with 19%, followed by Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz who registers 12% backing. Trailing both is former NAACP president Ben Jealous at 10 percent. No other candidate even reaches the 4% plateau. Clearly, this Democratic primary contest is wide open. --Jim Ellis On Friday, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Republicans’ appeal of the Texas’ three-judge panel’s ruling declaring Districts 27 (Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Corpus Christi) and 35 (Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin) unconstitutional for racial gerrymandering reasons. The high court stayed the lower court ruling, and also is considering the Republicans’ motion to stay on the recent North Carolina federal court ruling that the state’s congressional map is a political gerrymander. Whether the court will stay the North Carolina decision could possibly be decided later this week.
The Supreme Court has already heard the Democrats’ claim that the Wisconsin congressional lines are a political gerrymander, and a decision on that case could soon be forthcoming. The Republicans’ political gerrymandering claim against the Maryland map, specifically the state’s 6th District (Rep. John Delaney, D-Potomac), will also be on the high court’s agenda. It is unclear if any of the eventual rulings will cause the affected states to re-draw their congressional and/or state legislative maps before the 2018 election. --Jim Ellis Gonzales Research & Media Services, a Maryland-based survey research firm, yesterday released the results of their year-end Democratic gubernatorial primary poll (12/27-1/5; 501 MD likely Democratic primary voters) and found Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker jumping out to an early advantage. According to the Gonzales results, Mr. Baker would capture 24% support, followed by Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and ex-NAACP national president Ben Jealous with 14% apiece, while state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County) tallies five percent. Four more minor candidates all recorded support factors of less than two percent.
The Maryland candidate filing deadline will close on February 27th, but the Democratic field appears set. The party primaries are scheduled for June 26th. The eventual Democratic nominee will face incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the fall election. --Jim Ellis |
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