State Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita) ended her US Senate campaign yesterday. State Republican Party chairman Mike Kuckelman last week had asked all candidates but Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) to leave the race in order not to split the vote. A crowded field situation theoretically would make it easier for former Secretary of State and failed 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach to therefore win the Senate nomination with plurality support.
The Kansas Senate race is an interesting one in that Democrats believe they can be competitive in what is normally a solid Republican domain if the GOP nominates Mr. Kobach. They successfully defeated Kobach in the 2018 gubernatorial election and polling suggests they would have a chance to repeat that performance in this year’s Senate race. The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a new Kansas poll (5/17-19; 506 KS likely general election voters) pairing both Rep. Marshall and Mr. Kobach individually against consensus Democratic candidate Barbara Bollier, a party-switching state Senator who represents the Mission Hills area. The data finds Rep. Marshall leading Sen. Bollier, 46-35%, which is a typical range for a Kansas Senate race at this point in the election cycle. With Kris Kobach as the hypothetical nominee, the contest changes. He would hold only a slight 44-43% edge over Sen. Bollier, thus putting the seat in play during the general election. Manhattan Mayor Usha Reddi, who appeared to be state Sen. Barbara Bollier’s (D-Mission Hills) strongest Democratic primary opponent has dropped out of the race. She stated yesterday that she will not file as a candidate on the June 1st deadline. The move assuredly wraps up the nomination for Sen. Bollier, and she will await the Republican primary winner on August 4th.
Public Opinion Strategies released a new Kansas Republican primary survey for the Roger Marshall for Senate campaign (5/10-12; 600 KS likely Republican primary voters) that projects the western district Congressman has taken the lead over former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach.
The ballot test shows Rep. Marshall leading Mr. Kobach and state Senate President Susan Wagle, 33-26-7%, with two minor candidates finishing even further behind in single digits. This is a significant change from their March poll that found Mr. Kobach holding a 34-28% advantage over Rep. Marshall. Polling suggests that the normally safe Kansas seat would be vulnerable to consensus Democratic candidate Barbara Bollier, a physician and Mission Hills state Senator, if Mr. Kobach were to win the GOP nomination. Confirming Democratic political spin that their nominee has a shot to win the open Kansas Senate race if former Secretary of State and defeated 2019 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach wins the 2020 Republican nomination, a just released Public Policy Polling survey (4/13-14; 1,271 KS registered voters via automated response device) finds state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills) taking a small two point lead over Mr. Kobach, 44-42%. PPP, however, did not test either of the other Senate GOP candidates against Ms. Bollier, US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) or state Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita).
The economic conservative organization Club for Growth has reportedly reserved $2.1 million in media time for the Kansas Senate race though they have yet to endorse a candidate. They are, however, opposing one. The Club will run an electronic messaging operation against Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) who is running for the open Senate seat from which veteran incumbent Pat Roberts (R) is retiring. The group will attack Rep. Marshall over his spending and certain tax votes, which they say will enlarge the federal deficit even beyond its current status.
The Kansas primary is scheduled for August 4th. Rep. Marshall’s principal GOP opponents are former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach and state Senate President Susan Wagle (R-Wichita). Kansas City businessman Bob Hamilton, who has advertised on local television for decades, also may join the race. Democrats have coalesced around party-switching state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills). Two general election polls were recently released into the public domain and they reveal distinct general election conclusions. DFM Research for the SMART Transportation union (1/30-2/6 with no calling on Super Bowl Sunday, 2/2; 600 KS residents) found former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) and state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills) tied with 43% apiece.
The Kobach campaign then responded with their own McLaughlin & Associates survey (2/12-13; 300 KS likely general election voters), which posted their candidate to a 47-38% advantage over Sen. Bollier, who appears to be a consensus Democratic candidate. Both polls have methodology issues. The DFM poll queries “residents” as opposed to registered voters, while the McLaughlin poll sites only 300 likely general election voters, which is a small sample. Additionally, neither the DFM nor McLaughlin poll reported a ballot test featuring Sen. Bollier and US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), which may have produced a distinctly different result. The Keep Kansas Great PAC released the results of a co/Efficient polling company survey (1/19-20; 1,246 KS likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response) that finds west Kansas US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) moving slightly ahead of former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the 2020 open Senate Republican primary.
The co/Efficient data finds Rep. Marshall only clinging to a 29-28% edge, but this is the first time that Mr. Kobach has trailed in a published Republican primary survey. Additionally, Mr. Marshall’s statewide name identification is far below that of Mr. Kobach’s who lost the Governor’s race in 2018 to Democratic candidate Laura Kelly, suggesting the Congressman has much more room to grow. Democrats believe they can win the open Senate seat if Kobach becomes the GOP nominee. Public general election polling has so far supported the Democrats’ optimism. Reports surfaced over the weekend that President Trump is asking Mr. Kobach not to become a candidate. The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1st for the August 4th primary, so much time remains before decisions must be made. Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is retiring. Despite US Secretary of State and former Kansas Congressman Mike Pompeo telling Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that he will not run for the open Kansas Senate seat this year, outgoing Sen. Pat Roberts (R) said in an interview that his subsequent conversation with Mr. Pompeo suggested the Secretary was slightly less definitive about his ultimate decision. The Kansas candidate filing deadline is not until June 1st for the August 4th primary, so this political melodrama still has time to run.
Democrats believe they have a chance to score an upset here if former Kansas Secretary of State and defeated 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach becomes the Republican Senate nominee. The Republican leadership believes that Secretary Pompeo entering the race would lock down the seat for the GOP. Democrats believe they have a chance to steal the open Kansas Senate race particularly since they were successful in electing Gov. Laura Kelly in 2018. Their odds improve if Kansas former Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who lost the previous Governor’s race, becomes the Republican nominee.
The recent Trafalgar Group survey for the Free Forever PAC (12/3-11; 563 KS likely GOP primary voters) finds that even if US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo returns to Kansas and enters the Senate race the party nomination is apparently up for grabs. The poll results find both Messrs. Pompeo and Kobach receiving approximately 26% with Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) trailing at 13%. Without Secretary Pompeo in the race, Mr. Kobach would open with a large 33-18% advantage over Rep. Marshall. Scandal rumors have been swirling around freshman Kansas Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) almost since the time he assumed office, and now one looks to be coming to fruition. Accusations of voter fraud are now being directed at Mr. Watkins because it has been discovered that his original 2018 congressional filing lists a UPS Store as his voting address instead of a residence, the latter of which is required under Kansas election law.
Regardless of how the voter registration issue is resolved, Rep. Watkins can expect a fight for re-nomination. State Treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) is already an announced candidate, running here with the encouragement of former Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) and other key party leaders. |
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