A new wave of ads from an independent expenditure PAC entitled the Keep Kansas Great PAC, which is aligned with Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), identifies the Democrats as the funding source of PAC ads that are promoting former Secretary of State Kris Kobach.
The retaliatory pro-Marshall ads take aim at the Democratic leadership by claiming they are “afraid to run against the real conservative, Roger Marshall.” With charges and countercharges coming from both sides about individual candidates and others promoting contenders who they are not really for, brings to mind the old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard.” The Kansas Republican primary is August 4th, and the result will be interesting no matter how it turns out. The full Democratic commitment to helping former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach win the Republican nomination is now becoming known. Federal financial disclosure reports reveal that over $4.2 million has been spent from the Democratic PACs with the goal of pulling Mr. Kobach, who reported only $136,000 cash on hand through July 15th, across the GOP primary finish line. It is obvious that they believe him to be the weakest Republican their consensus candidate, state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills), could face in November.
Mr. Kobach’s prime opponent, Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), had more than $1 million remaining to spend. Plumbing company Bob Hamilton, who is self-funding his campaign to the degree of $3.7 million, still had just under $1 million in his political account on the pre-primary financial disclosure filing. As we get closer to the August 4th primary that will feature nominees being chosen in the important Kansas and Tennessee Senate GOP nomination contests, incumbent Senators are getting involved.
In Kansas, retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), who has been in Congress since the beginning of 1981, endorsed Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) to succeed him. This primary is contentious because Republican institutional money is coming into the state in an attempt to deny losing 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach the party nomination, while Democratic money is trying to pull him over the GOP finish line with ads saying he is “too conservative for Kansas.” Obviously, the latter ploy has the clear goal of driving the most conservative voters toward Kobach. It is clear that national leaders from both parties believe the Democrats have the opportunity of taking the Kansas race in the general election if Mr. Kobach becomes the GOP nominee. Turning to Tennessee, incumbent Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) announced her endorsement of former US Ambassador Bill Hagerty, who President Trump is also supporting, against surging candidate Manny Sethi, a Nashville orthopedic surgeon. On the other hand, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) highlights an independent expenditure PAC ad promoting Dr. Sethi. The two are battling to succeed retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R). Freshman Rep. Steve Watkins’ (R-Topeka) indictment for voter fraud and the bad publicity surrounding it has already taken a toll on him and is making this seat, which has elected only one Democrat since the 1994 election, competitive in the general election. A new Battleground Connect poll (7/16-17; 1,250 KS-2 likely voters via live telephone interview) finds Mr. Watkins badly trailing Topeka Democratic Mayor Michelle De La Isla 37-50%, while State Treasurer Jake LaTurner (R) leads her 42-41%. During this time, Rep. Watkins’ favorability index has dropped to 25:50% favorable to unfavorable, and a very concerning 17:61% among Independents.
Freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka), who is now under indictment under voter fraud changes in a previous election, is seeing supporters turn away. Now relinquishing his committee assignments under pressure, Mr. Watkins is also witnessing the Kansas for Life organization, which originally endorsed both the Congressman and state Treasurer Jake LaTurner in the GOP 2nd District primary, solely endorsing the latter man. Additionally, saying he feared Mr. Watkins legal trouble could turn the congressional seat over to a “Nancy Pelosi liberal,” US Rep. Ron Estes (R-Wichita) announced his endorsement of Mr. LaTurner.
Recently, an establishment Republican Super PAC sprung up to invest a reported $3 million in ads to help derail former Secretary of State and 2018 failed gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach. The PAC backers believe that Kobach would again put a Republican seat at risk in a statewide race, this time potentially losing to consensus Democratic candidate Barbara Bollier, a state Senator from Mission Hills.
To underscore that the former statewide elected official is the weakest candidate, the new Sunflower State PAC, with money coming from Democratic funders, is financing a major media buy to actually help Kobach. They use what is now becoming a familiar tactic of criticizing a GOP candidate for being too conservative, knowing that will help secure the base vote. The ad also attacks principal challenger Roger Marshall, the western Kansas Congressman, for being “soft on Trump” and “weak on China.” The Kansas primary is August 4th. In a developing story, Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) has been indicted on three counts of felony vote fraud from the 2018 election. Mr. Watkins is charged with registering to vote at a UPS postal center instead of a residence since he moved into the state to run for Congress. He then voted with that registration, which caused an additional violation. Rep. Watkins is already in a competitive Republican primary with state Treasurer Jake LaTurner among others, so the August 4th nomination election certainly includes a new twist.
It looks like the Republican establishment is serious about denying former Secretary of State and losing 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach the US Senate nomination.
A newly formed organization called Plains PAC just launched what appears to be a $3 million negative media buy against Kobach with a hard-hitting ad in a build-up to the August 4th primary election. Democrats believe they have a chance to steal what should be a safely Republican seat if Kobach becomes the nominee, and polling suggests they are correct. Western Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) is the candidate with the best chance to deny Kobach the party nomination. To date, the talk surrounding the Kansas Senate race had been whether US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) can stop former Secretary of State and 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach from winning the Republican nomination.
We now see a change in Dr. Marshall’s latest ad strategy, however. Kansas City plumbing company owner Bob Hamilton, who has advertised in the state’s largest market for years and has invested $2 million of his own money into his Senate campaign, is the focus of the Congressman’s most recent attack and not Mr. Kobach. Clearly, the Marshall campaign believes Mr. Hamilton is becoming a significant competitor. The ad script attacks Hamilton for supporting Hillary Clinton, opposing President Trump, and never financially supporting any Republican candidate other than himself. For months, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner has been challenging freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-Topeka) in the Republican primary. Just as the candidate filing deadline was expiring a surprise candidate joined the race.
Former Kansas Department of Administration director and previous congressional candidate (1982) Dennis Taylor is now the third candidate in the race. Rep. Watkins is vulnerable in this primary, and the addition of Mr. Taylor could actually help him win re-nomination with just a plurality. This is an August 4th primary to watch. The general election looks to be competitive as well. Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla is unopposed in the Democratic primary. |
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