Speculation has been swirling that defeated Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) might decide to challenge Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) next year. It appears Mr. Donnelly has now put such talk to bed. The ex-Senator and Representative told a Howey Political Report representative that he is fortunate to be teaching at Notre Dame University and is concentrating on “getting my snow blower going these days.”
South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee yesterday, quite a jump from being a small city mayor all the way to running for President. At this point, Mr. Buttigieg must be viewed as a minor candidate, but with millennial and LGBTQ constituencies serving as a potential political base, the South Bend Mayor could have access to both a financial and vote base.
It is unlikely that his campaign would forge to the front of a pack of candidates loaded with more experienced politicians, but Buttigieg’s exploratory efforts are worthy of some attention. South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) announced that he will not seek re-election to a third term and is expected to join the presidential campaign sometime early next year. Mr. Buttigieg, who is openly gay, will bank on strong support from the LGBT community and its allies as he builds a base within the Democratic Party. Though officially mum about running for President, he is already heading to Iowa for speaking appearances this coming weekend.
Mr. Buttigieg was first elected in 2011 at the age of 29. He is a Rhodes Scholar, Afghan War veteran, and a Naval Reserve officer. Though he has yet to publicly respond, many Indiana Democratic Party leaders are already encouraging defeated Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) to challenge first term Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) in 2020. Mr. Holcomb, who had been appointed Lt. Governor less than a year before the previous general election, won a 51-45% victory over former state House Minority Leader John Gregg (D) in 2016. For his part, Mr. Gregg, who was also the party nominee in 2012 when then-US Rep. Mike Pence (R) slipped past him, 49-47%, confirms that he is considering making another run for the state’s highest office.
We now are seeing a spate of Indiana Senate polls in a race that once had only a dearth of information. It does appear the GOP challenger Mike Braun is establishing a clear lead over Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). A new Cygnal polling firm survey (10/26-27; 505 IN likely voters) finds Mr. Braun holding a 49-46% advantage, which is a similar result to several other late-breaking surveys. Though trailing, Sen. Donnelly’s support factor is growing, however. He now consistently posts numbers in the mid-40s as opposes to the low 40s. Though an improvement, it appears the overall trend is moving away from him.
While the Indiana Senate race, commonly viewed as a toss-up, has seen little in the way of released public polling until just recently now finds another released survey in the public domain. The new Survey USA poll (10/12-16; 1,400 IN adults, 1,048 registered voters; 816 likely voters) finds Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) clinging only to a 41-40% slight edge over former state Representative and international businessman Mike Braun (R).
The other recent polls have projected the Senator to be in better standing, but clearly this contest is far from over with two weeks remaining. While the Midwest appears headed toward the Democrats, Indiana has consistently performed as a Republican stronghold. Therefore, this race remains too close to call. The Indiana Senate race seen very few publicly released polls, and now we have a pair in two days. Yesterday, we reported upon a Gravis Marketing survey (9/29-10-2; 695 IN likely voters) that posted Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) to a 44-40% edge over former state Representative and international businessman Mike Braun (R). Late in the week, Vox Populi produced their Indiana poll (10/13-15; 783 IN “active” voters), which projects a greater advantage for Sen. Donnelly. According to their results, the Democratic incumbent leads Mr. Braun, 44-36%.
Though the Indiana Senate race has been rated a toss-up since the election cycle began, the contest has been seldom polled. This may be due to Indiana’s stringent telemarketing law. In any event, Gravis Marketing released their new survey (9/29-10-2; 695 IN likely voters) and found Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) leading former state Representative and international businessman Mike Braun (R), 44-40%. Indiana is a strongly Republican state, but the Midwest, especially in the Great Lakes region, appears to be trending Democratic for this election. Therefore, Sen. Donnelly’s survival chances have clearly improved in the waning days of this campaign.
Fox News, polling through the Anderson Robbins survey research firm (D) and Shaw & Company (R), released new data for six US Senate campaigns. The only two with clear advantages for one candidate came from North Dakota where Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has a 53-41% lead over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). The other finds Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) leading former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 48-43%.
The remainder are all clearly within the polling margin of error: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) leading Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) in the Arizona race, 47-45%; Sen. Bill Nelson (D) edging Gov. Rick Scott (R), 47-46%, in Florida; Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) posting a two-point lead over businessman Mike Braun (R), 43-41%; and, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) tied at 43%, apiece. NBC/Marist College released their new Indiana survey (8/26-29; 955 IN adults; 816 IN registered voters; 576 IN likely voters) and found a race that is much tighter than the last published poll. According to NBC/Marist, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) holds a 43-41% lead in the registered voter segment, which increases to 44-41% when the small likely voters cell is isolated.
Sen. Donnelly boasts a good job approval rating, however, 46:31% positive to negative. The numbers also tell us that the outside attacks against Republican nominee Mike Braun have taken their toll. His approval rating is a lower 38:31%. President Trump’s job approval in Vice President Pence’s home state is 46:47%. |
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