As Georgia election law mandates, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is forced to schedule a special election to replace the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Atlanta), even though the final part of the term could be as short as one month. Now, the special election itself is becoming rather useless since chosen Democratic general election nominee Nikema Williams, the Georgia Democratic Party chair and a state Senator, decided not to enter the September 29th special jungle primary.
Seven others did file to run, so moving to a December 1st runoff election now becomes very likely without Ms. Williams in the field. This means the special election winner will serve less than a month in Congress before Ms. Williams takes the seat in January after winning what will be, for her, a cinch general election in the heavily Democratic district. Republican candidate John Cowan, a north Georgia surgeon, just released a new internal poll as reported in the NJ Hotline (7/23-26; 400 GA-14 likely runoff voters) in anticipation of the August 11th runoff election. The results find Dr. Cowan and his opponent, first place primary finisher Margorie Taylor Greene, tied at 38% apiece. This is a consistent result with two earlier polls that showed each candidate establishing a three-point lead. In the primary, Ms. Greene outpolled Dr. Cowan, 40-21%, which was well short of the 50% she needed to capture the nomination outright.
Monmouth University completed a Georgia survey (7/23-27; 402 GA likely voters) that found, for the first time, appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) leading the special election field for the November 3rd jungle primary election to fill the remainder of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson’s final term. Mr. Isakson departed the Senate at the end of 2019 for health reasons.
According to Monmouth, Sen. Loeffler leads Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), 26-20% with Democratic businessman Matt Lieberman, the son of former Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D/I), trailing in third place with 14%. Following is Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed candidate Raphael Warnock at only 9% preference, ahead of only former US Attorney Ed Tarver’s 5% preference figure. This is the first time a poll has reported Sen. Loeffler with a lead, so confirming data will have to be released before the Monmouth poll is treated as anything but an outlier. This is not the first time, however, that a survey has projected both Republicans advancing to the January 5th runoff election. If no candidate attains the 50% plateau on election night, the top two finishers will advance into the secondary election. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced that the special election to fill the remainder of the late Rep. John Lewis’ (D-Atlanta) term will be filled with a jungle primary scheduled for September 29th. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will runoff on December 1st. It is likely that state Senator and Georgia Democratic Party state chair Nikema Williams will win the special election outright. She is the official replacement for Mr. Lewis on the November ballot for the regular term, so seeing her lose the special election would be highly unlikely.
The Georgia Democratic Party executive committee, as expected, chose its state chair and Atlanta state Senator Nikema Williams to replace the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Atlanta) on the November general election ballot. Under Georgia election law, the political parties have only one business day to replace an incumbent nominee if the individual declines to run for whatever reason. Ms. Williams will now face Republican Angela Stanton-King in the regular general election and becomes the overwhelming favorite to win.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) must now schedule a special election for the seat to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, and it is expected the special general will run concurrently with the regular general election on November 3rd. The special election cycle could feature a primary between now and the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November because the special and regular elections could produce separate winners. Under Georgia law, the Governor has ten days to announce the replacement schedule after an elected position becomes officially vacant. Veteran Georgia Representative and Civil Rights Leader John Lewis (D-Atlanta) passed away on Friday, and Democrats only have one day to replace him on the ballot for November under Georgia election law. A special seven-person committee was immediately assembled to send three to five candidates to the Georgia Democratic Party state executive committee members. At a point later today, the full committee will choose a replacement nominee from this group for the November election.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R) must call a special election to fill the balance of Mr. Lewis’ final term, and it is likely he will make the contest concurrent with the regular November election. The special election would be different than the regular process, in that we will likely see a partisan special primary prior to the regular general election. US Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) released his internal Battleground Connect poll (7/6-8; 600 GA likely general election voters) yesterday, and the results place him ahead of the entire special election US Senate jungle primary field with 26% support. Interestingly, Gravis Marketing in their July 2nd survey of 513 likely Georgia primary voters also found Rep. Collins leading the pack, and with an identical 26% figure.
The Gravis poll, however, projects a tighter field. They see Mr. Collins leading appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), 26-24% with Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s endorsed candidate, in third position with 18% ahead of Atlanta businessman Matt Lieberman (11%) and former US Attorney Ed Tarver (9%). In the Collins’ Battleground Connect poll, the Congressman’s lead over Sen. Loeffler is 26-17%, with Mr. Lieberman in third position with 15%, and Rev. Warnock and Mr. Tarver following with 10 and 5%, respectively. While many pollsters are returning to sampling registered voters without overlaying likely voter projections in choosing a polling universe for their June research studies, Public Policy Polling is now referring to their latest samples as simply, “voters.” Without defining their term in the released analysis, this could mean self-identified voters or simply adults. The classification suggests the error factor will be greater among “voters” rather than definitive registered voters and certainly so when compared to a likely voter screen.
That being said, the PPP new Georgia poll is out (6/25-26; 734 GA “voters”), and the results give former Vice President Joe Biden a 49-45% edge in this most critical of battleground states. The Democratic nominee, however, being up at this point in the election cycle is not particularly unusual. Looking back at the 2016 race, the Real Clear Politics polling archives reveals that while Mr. Trump led in almost every Georgia poll four years ago, two in early August, from the Atlanta Journal Constitution and JMC Analytics, found Hillary Clinton topping her opponent by four and seven points, respectively. The previously mentioned Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the Georgia special Senate election among those described as “voters.” Though closing, PPP finds Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) still leading the jungle primary field but with a reduced margin of 23-21-20% over appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D).
In run-off pairings pitting each Republican against Rev. Warnock, Rep. Collins would hold a 43-41% advantage, while Sen. Loeffler would trail him, 40-43%. In 2018, Georgia’s 7th District was decided by just 419 votes. Now, in an open seat campaign, we see a poll suggesting that another close finish is likely to occur. According to a post-primary Public Policy Polling survey (6/19-20; 589 GA-7 registered voters), 2018 Democratic nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) leads retired Navy officer and physician Rich McCormick (R), 42-39%, well within the polling margin of error.
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