Virginia: Spanberger Opponent Drops Bid: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) announced yesterday that he is ending his 2025 bid for Governor and instead will enter what is expected to be an open contest for Lt. Governor. The move, at least for the short term, leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Cove) as unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Mr. Stoney, however, is entering a contested primary for the secondary position. St. Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach), a former NFL and UFL football player, also announced his bid for Lt. Governor yesterday. Sen. Rouse, also a former Virginia Beach City Councilman, was elected to the Senate in a special election in early 2023. AL-1: First Announcement for 2026: It appears we have our first announcement of candidacy for the 2026 election cycle. Alabama US Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile), who was defeated for renomination in March when he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) were paired in a new 1st District in response to a court-ordered redistricting directive to draw another majority minority congressional seat, has filed a campaign committee for the 2026 election cycle.
Therefore, it appears we will see a rematch of the contest where Rep. Moore, who saw only 41% of his previous territory be included in the new 1st District, defeated Rep. Carl by a 51.7 – 48.3% result even though the latter man outspent the winner by a 2:1 margin. Should this rematch actually transpire in two years, it will again be competitive. CA-16: Early Recount Produces Leader: The recount of the CA-16 primary that resulted in a tied result between San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for the second general election qualifying position is underway. In Santa Clara County, the larger of the two municipalities that comprise the Silicon Valley 16th Congressional District, a reported 77 of the district’s 199 precincts have been machine recounted, and Mr. Simitian has so far captured a three-vote lead. A political action committee with ties to first place finisher Sam Liccardo (D), the former San Jose Mayor, is reportedly financing the recount, which is likely to cost approximately $300,000. In almost every situation, a recount changes the election result at least by a few votes. This means we will likely see either Mr. Simitian or Mr. Low likely be declared the official second-place finisher once this process concludes. The votes were originally cast on March 5th. If the two remain tied, both will advance to the general election to create a three-way race with Mr. Liccardo. If the latter man is behind the financing of the recount that neither Simitian nor Low requested, then it is clear that Liccardo believes a two-way race is to his benefit. MI-13: Rep. Thanedar (D) Draws Another Primary Challenger: Another budding primary challenge faces Michigan freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit). In 2022, he won an open Democratic primary with just 28% of the vote, and the second place finisher, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier, who secured 21% in a field of nine Democratic candidates long ago announced his return for a rematch. Now, former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins (D), who resigned from office before felony charges were levied against her, has announced her own congressional candidacy. Also in the Democratic primary race is Detroit City Councilwoman and former state Representative Mary Waters. This will again be a competitive contest, but the more crowded the field, the better for Rep. Thanedar who has the financial wherewithal to outspend his opponents. Candidate filing ends today for the August 6th primary election, so we will soon see the official field form. The 13th District, one of two anchored in Detroit, is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+46, so Rep. Thanedar’s race for re-election lies in the Democratic primary. North Carolina: Stein Posts Definitive Lead: A new North Carolina statewide poll that pits Donald Trump to a two point lead in the presidential contest also sees Attorney General Josh Stein pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the open Governor’s contest.
Meredith College (4/11-17; 801 NC registered voters; 711 NC likely voters; online) went into the field to test the NC electorate, known for returning close statewide general election results, and found AG Stein leading the Lt. Governor by a 45-36% count. Though Mr. Stein has been leading in five of the seven polls released since the beginning of March, this result depicts his strongest lead. The end result is expected to be close. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. KS-2: More Individuals in the Candidate Mix: Potential Kansas congressional candidates continue to contemplate their political moves in response to last week’s surprise retirement announcement from two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka).
Republicans already expressing interest in announcing their candidacies are state House Majority Leader Chris Croft, Leavenworth County Attorney Todd Thompson, and state Senator Caryn Tyson (R-Parker). Former state Attorney General and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt acknowledges that his name is in the mix for the 2nd District but has not yet made a statement regarding intent. State Insurance Commissioner Vicky Schmidt is a possible candidate. Topeka Mayor Michelle de la Isla is mentioned as a potential Democratic contender. The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1st. The real action is in the Republican primary as the seat will almost assuredly remain in the GOP column. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21, and Donald Trump carried the district 57-41% in the 2020 presidential campaign. WI-8: Rep. Gallagher (R) Resigns: After staying to vote on the foreign aid bills, Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) officially resigned his seat. His action reduces the total House count to 430, and the Republican majority to 217-213. Mr. Gallagher joins former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH), and Ken Buck (R-CO) who also left the House prior to finishing the current term. Special elections to fill the balance of the terms will be held in all but Wisconsin. The New York district will be filled April 30th, CA-20 on May 21st, the OH-6 seat on June 11th, and Rep. Buck’s Colorado CD on June 25th. Each party is expected to hold the seats of their departing members. If so, when the special election cycles conclude, the Republicans will have 220 seats and the Democrats’ 214. Pennsylvania: Primary Tomorrow: The nation’s only April primary is scheduled for tomorrow, and electorates in several key House races will choose nominees. Presidential turnout, as a gauge for voting enthusiasm, will be monitored, while both major party US Senate candidates, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R), are unopposed in their respective nomination campaigns.
We have several major primaries occurring, one that will seal a seat for the Democratic nominee in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District, and two more in swing districts that will lead to highly competitive general election races. Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pittsburgh) defends against local official Bhavini Patel in District 12. Republicans feature a competitive primary to challenge vulnerable Reps. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), as do Democrats opposite six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg). Republicans also look to mount strong challenges against Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall). Tomorrow, however, their candidates, businessman Rob Bresnahan and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland), face no intraparty opposition. Fox News Polls: Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling: Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign, meaning executing polls in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To win the Presidency, Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes States at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough to defeat President Biden so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him.
All of the polls were conducted from April 11-16, and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the aforementioned states. In these polls, Mr. Trump would lead President Biden 51-45% in Georgia, and 49-46% in Michigan, while fighting to a draw at 48-48% in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire, the ballot tests change. While Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan under this new configuration, he takes a 44-42-8% lead in Pennsylvania. The President, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9%. Florida: Sen. Scott’s Stronger Lead: Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (4/15-17; 815 FL likely general election voters; text & interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mursell-Powell. According to the FAU numbers, Sen. Scott scores a 53-36% advantage.
Earlier in April, Ipsos Research, for USA Today (4/5-7; 1,014 FL adults; online) found the Senator’s lead at 36-26%, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. Emerson College (4/3-7; 608 FL likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported a 45-38% ballot test, also in Sen. Scott’s favor. KS-2: Open Seat #50: Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) yesterday surprisingly announced that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.
The Congressman, at 36 years of age, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, Mr. LaTurner had served as Kansas’ State Treasurer, and was twice elected to the state Senate. The LaTurner decision means there are 50 seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil: Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year. After his congressional defeat, Mr. Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another ten years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue. The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Mr. Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31st, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account. Michigan: Unusual Three-Way Polling Result: It has been a consistent pattern in recent weeks that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the minor party candidates have been routinely taking more support from President Biden than they do from Donald Trump. The latest Michigan poll reveals the opposite trend.
The Marketing Resource Group, a regular Wolverine State pollster, was in the field testing the presidential race. Their survey (4/8-11; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Trump leading President Biden 42-36% on a head-to-head ballot test question. When Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates are added, the Trump margin shrinks to 37-34%, with Mr. Kennedy attracting 13%, and the remaining candidates taking an aggregate three more percentage points. When taking into account those who say they will vote for someone else, are undecided, or refused to answer the question, we see an additional 13% at this point falling away from the two major party candidates. Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates will be an important factor in the 2024 election. How they break come election day may well decide some, if not all, of the key swing states that will determine the ultimate final outcome. |
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