It has long been suggested that either Gov. Bill Walker (I) or former Sen. Mark Begich (D) drop out of the Governor’s race to coalesce their support against Republican former state Senator Mike Dunleavy. All polls were showing Mr. Dunleavy with a substantial lead in the three-way contest.
In an unexpected move over the weekend, one candidate did drop out. In a surprising announcement, Gov. Walker stated he is ending his campaign three weeks before the election and quickly yielded to Mr. Begich. This development makes the contest more competitive and will drastically change the closing days. Whether or not projected outcome of a Dunleavy victory becomes distorted remains to be seen, but certainly former Sen. Begich is now in an unimpeded position to score a come-from-behind victory. Lt. Gov. Byron Mallot (I), who was Gov. Bill Walker’s (I) original choice for Lt. Governor and served throughout the Administration, has resigned his position. He admits to making inappropriate, but unspecified comments. Mr. Mallot was immediately replaced in office and on the ballot. Gov. Walker chose Indian healthcare policy advisor Valerie Nurr’arsoluk Davidson both as Lt. Governor and as his running mate for re-election.
The appointment may be short-lived, however. Polling indicates Gov. Walker is trailing badly and is on the precipice of losing his office on November 6th. Polling continues to suggest that the nation’s lone Independent Governor, Alaska’s Bill Walker, likely will not win a second term. A new Alaska Survey Research firm poll (10/1-6; 500 AK registered voters) projects Republican former state Senator Mike Dunleavy to be holding a commanding 47-27-23% lead over Gov. Walker and former US Senator Mark Begich, the Democratic nominee. It was believed at the time he entered the race that ex-Sen. Begich’s presence in the contest would likely tip the balance toward the eventual Republican nominee. Such appears to be happening.
Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon), the Dean of the US House, was first elected in a 1973 special election and has won 21 additional statewide elections. In recent campaigns, however, his margins have grown smaller. Now, pollster Ivan Moore of the Alaska Survey Research firm released a new study conducted the first week of this month (500 AK likely voters) finding Rep. Young leading his Democratic challenger Alyse Galvin, an education reform activist, by just a 50-46% clip.
Seeing polls like this from Alaska are not particularly surprising, and Young’s victory percentages in the last two elections have declined to 50.3 and 51.0%. But, since many independent and minor party candidates run in the Last Frontier, the highest percentage registered against him in those electoral contests is 41. The nation’s lone Independent Governor might lose if a new Alaska Survey Research poll is accurate. The study (9/21-25; 500 AK certain and very likely voters) finds Republican former state Senator Mike Dunleavy leading ex-US Senator Mark Begich (D) and Gov. Bill Walker (I), 44-29-23%, respectively, in the three-way contest.
Originally, most believed that the three-way format would be the main reason that Walker would fail to win a second term, but this poll suggests differently. While Mr. Dunleavy holds a 40:23% favorability rating, former Sen. Begich drops into unfavorable territory at 35:39%, but Gov. Walker falls even deeper to 31:49%. Dispelling the idea that Walker fares better in a two-way, this poll finds that he would lose to both Dunleavy and Begich in one-on-one races. Against Dunleavy alone, Walker would lose, 54-41%. If Mr. Begich were his only opponent, the Governor would trail 46-40%. The three-way race among Gov. Bill Walker, the nation’s lone Independent state chief executive, former US Senator Mark Begich (D), and ex-state Senator Mike Dunleavy (R) became official early this week. Though Walker supporters, including the state AFL-CIO, have been urging Mr. Begich to drop out of the race seeing that polls are uniformly finding Mr. Dunleavy would win a three-way race, he refused to do so.
The adverse split is occurring because Democrats and left-of-center voters are split between Gov. Walker and Mr. Begich, thus allowing the Republican base to push Mr. Dunleavy toward plurality support. In 2014, Mr. Walker and then-Democratic nominee Byron Mallot unified their ticket (Mallot agreed to run as Lt. Governor), which led to unseating then-Gov. Sean Parnell (R). The state deadline allowing candidates to withdraw post-primary has now elapsed, and all three remain as candidates. It is still possible for a contender to leave the race, but now his name would remain on the ballot. Therefore, the Alaska Governor’s race continues as one of the most interesting statewide campaigns in the country. Yesterday, we reported that the Alaska AFL-CIO leadership decided to support Independent Gov. Bill Walker for re-election over former US Senator Mark Begich (D), who they had backed in previous elections.
Now, the union released the results of its Harstad Strategic Research poll (8/13-16; 602 AK likely voters) that sees Republican nominee Mike Dunleavy leading Gov. Walker and Mr. Begich, 36-26-24%, respectively. The union leadership then used the polling results to call upon Mr. Begich, a former US Senator and Anchorage Mayor, to drop out of the gubernatorial race to give incumbent Walker a better chance of beating Mr. Dunleavy. Eschewing former US Senator Mark Begich (D), who they had previously backed, the Alaska AFL-CIO leadership announced yesterday that the organization is endorsing Gov. Bill Walker (I) for re-election. The union spokesman admitted that the Governor’s chances would be better of defeating Republican nominee Mike Dunleavy, a former state Senator, if the race were only a two-way affair.
For Dunleavy, the Republican Governor’s Association, through their affiliated group Families for Alaska’s Future, will spend over $1.1 million in backing their new nominee, clearly believing the incumbent can be defeated in the three-way format. Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso defeated self-funding Republican primary challenger Dave Dodson in a landslide 67-28% result last night, and becomes the prohibitive favorite to win a third term in November.
In the close Governor’s primary, state Treasurer Mark Gordon defeated billionaire mutual fund founder and national Republican donor Foster Friess, and attorney Harriet Hageman, 32-26-21%, to capture the open GOP nomination. Mr. Gordon will now oppose former state Rep. Mary Throne (D-Cheyenne), who was an easy winner in the Democratic primary. Republican Gov. Matt Mead is ineligible to seek a third term. At-large freshman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson Hole) also had little trouble winning her primary, and has clear sailing to clinch a second term in November. In Alaska, former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy easily defeated former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He now enters into a three-way general election that features Independent Gov. Bill Walker and former US Senator Mark Begich, who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Early polling suggests that Gov. Walker is in danger of losing the general election, as he trails both major party nominees. The Dean of the House, Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) serving his 23rd term, was re-nominated in a landslide result last night with 71% of the vote. Democratic education reform activist Alyse Galvin will oppose him in the general election. The three-way Alaska Governor’s race featuring incumbent Independent Gov. Bill Walker has attracted a great deal of attention since former Sen. Mark Begich (D) surprisingly entered the race. Two previous polls found former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) leading both Gov. Walker and ex-Sen. Begich, and that remains constant in the new Harstad Strategic Research poll conducted for the Alaska AFL-CIO. But, once more, we see alternating positions for Messrs. Walker and Begich.
According to the Harstad results (6/21-26; 602 AK likely general election voters), Mr. Dunleavy holds a 32-28-28% lead over his two opponents. The other polls, from the Alaska Research Service and Patinkin Research Strategies, found separate instances of both Gov. Walker and Mr. Begich falling to third position. The polling also finds that both Walker and Begich would top Dunleavy in a one-on-one race, but there is no sign that either the Governor or ex-Senator will soon depart the campaign. So, unless something changes before the August 21st primary, the Alaska Governor’s race will feature three major candidates. |
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