The first published post-primary poll was just released, and WT&S Consulting (3/5; 1,234 AL self-identified Republican voters) gives retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville a 49-43% lead over former US Attorney General and ex-Senator Jeff Sessions in the Republican run-off election scheduled for March 31st. In the March 3rd primary, Mr. Tuberville edged ex-Sen. Sessions 33-32%. The winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the general election.
As expected, former US Attorney General and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions qualified for the March 31st run-off election, but only finished second, one point behind retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville. The secondary race winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the general election. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), who posted almost 27% of the vote, finished four points away from run-off position and is eliminated from further competition.
Alabama Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) is running for the Senate, so his Mobile area congressional district is open. The new Congressman will almost assuredly come from the Republican primary.
A Strategy Research poll for local television station WKRG Channel 5 (2/17; 2,000 Democratic, Republican, and non-affiliated voters; un-segmented) found the Republican race gaining definition, but likely headed to a run-off. According to their results, local Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl is leading among the likely Republican primary voters with a 29-21% edge over former state Sen. Bill Hightower (R). State Rep. Chris Pringle (R-Mobile) follows with 13%. Therefore, it is likely that Messrs. Carl and Hightower will advance to the secondary election if this poll is accurate. The Alabama statewide primary is on Super Tuesday, March 3rd. A run-off election would occur on March 31st. Another poll suggests the Alabama Republican primary Senate contest is getting even closer. Former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions continues to come back to the candidate pack after opening with a sizable advantage. Here, his lead over retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville is only 32-30%, according to WT & S Consulting who just released their data (2/9-10; 1,048 AL self-identified Republican voters; online). Following is US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) with 22%. The other two candidates, former Alabama Supreme Court chief judge Roy Moore and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County) don’t surpass the 7% support figure.
The primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, with a run-off election, likely between Messrs. Sessions and Tuberville, to begin immediately thereafter. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies released a new Alabama poll (2/4-6; 625 AL registered voters; 400 likely Republican primary voters) and it finds ex-US Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who is attempting a comeback for his former US Senate seat, in a bit of trouble. The new survey projects him running ahead of retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, 31-29% in the GOP primary, with Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) trailing in third position with 17%.
The results suggest that Sessions will be forced into a run-off, most likely with Mr. Tuberville. Though the run-off ballot test favors Sessions 49-42%, the fact that the former AG and Senator’s name ID is 100% and he scores only 31% on the original ballot test among Republican primary voters portends clear weakness. This March 3rd primary will be one to watch. The OnMessage polling firm just released their latest poll and it finds former US Attorney General and ex-Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions (R) expanding his lead for the upcoming Alabama Senate primary on March 3rd.
According to OnMessage (1/13-15; 700 AL likely Republican primary voters), Mr. Sessions now holds a 43-22-21-8% lead over US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), retired former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, and former Alabama state Supreme Court Chief Judge and 2017 US Senate nominee Roy Moore. The results, even though placing Mr. Sessions in much better position than previous polling, still suggest that he and one other opponent, either Messrs. Byrne or Tuberville, will advance to a run-off election. Eight states will host their 2020 primary elections in March, meaning they will feature a full ballot to compliment the presidential race. Voters will select a full slate of nominees in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas on March 3, 10, or 17th. This means, at the end of March, nominees could be fully chosen for six Senate races and 151 congressional districts. It is possible, should no candidate reach the minimum nomination percentage in various states featuring a qualifying figure, that run-offs could be held in some Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas contests.
All of the aforementioned states have completed their candidate filing deadlines with the exception of Mississippi. There, candidacies become official on January 10th. West Virginia and Kentucky candidates will file on January 25th and 28th, respectively for May 12th and May 19th primary elections. The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s. If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections. Yesterday, we reported that former Attorney General and ex-Alabama US Senator Jeff Sessions (R) just released data from his internal OnMessage survey (12/3-5; 700 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) that placed him ahead of former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville by a 44-21% margin. Now, we see a Cherry Communications survey released (12/1-3; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) that, while also finding Sessions and Tuberville advancing to an April 14th run-off from the March 3rd primary, projects a tight spread between the two contenders. Cherry finds Sessions’ advantage to only be 35-31%.
Both polls place the other candidates, US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former state Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County), to be significantly trailing. Former Attorney General and ex-Alabama US Senator Jeff Sessions (R) just released data from his internal OnMessage survey (12/3-5; 700 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test results find Mr. Sessions placing first with 44% followed by former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville who records 21% support. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) has 14%, with former state Supreme Court Chief Judge and 2017 US Senate nominee Roy Moore attracting only 7%. State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County) gets just 1% in this survey.
If no candidate receives majority support in the March 3rd primary, the top two will advance to an April 14th run-off election. Most all recent polling has found that a Sessions/Tuberville run-off is the most likely primary outcome. |
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