California: Two Ex-Congressmen Running for Legislature: With the California candidate filing deadline closing last Friday, we see the unusual situation of two retired eight-term US Congressmen now running for seats in the California legislature. Former Rep. Jerry McNerney (D), who retired from Congress at the beginning of this year, filed for the open Stockton anchored state Senate seat, and George Radanovich (R), who left the House at the beginning of 2011, is running in an open Fresno area Assembly district.
For Mr. Radanovich, this will be his second try for the legislature. In the 2022 election, he ran for an open state Senate seat but failed to advance into the general election from the all-party jungle primary. Donald Trump: Over 50% in Iowa: The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News poll (Selzer & Company; 12/2-7; 502 IA Republican Caucus likely attenders; live interview) sees former President Trump again breaking the majority vote threshold. Selzer & Company, a survey research firm that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as an A+ pollster and consistently described as Iowa’s most accurate research entity, projects Mr. Trump to be holding a 51-19-16-5-4% advantage over Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, respectively.
According to the analysis, this is the largest historical advantage anyone has held for a competitive Iowa Caucus. CA-20: Leading Contender Won’t Run: With Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) resigning his seat before the end of the year, the California candidate filing deadline has been extended five days in this district because the incumbent is not seeking re-election. A surprise occurred yesterday, as the potential candidate viewed as having the best chance to succeed Mr. McCarthy, state Senator Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield) who already represents 91% of the 20th Congressional District constituency, announced that she will not run for Congress.
Immediately, state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield), who had filed for re-election after announcing he would not run for Congress, now wants to file for the congressional seat. It may be difficult for him to withdraw from the Assembly race, however, since his candidacy for the legislature has been officially approved. Rumors also abound that former Congressman Devin Nunes (R) may also file at the last moment. The filing period ends on Wednesday, so all questions will be answered at that time. IA-1: Poll Shows Rep. Miller-Meeks With Close Lead: The US Term Limits organization polled Iowa’s politically marginal southeastern 1st Congressional District (RMG Research; 11/28-12/2; 448 IA-1 likely voters; online) and finds Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) edging former state Representative and 2022 congressional nominee Christina Bohannon (D) by a 38-35% margin. The term limits push question then places Bohannon ahead after the pollsters indicate that the challenger supports limiting terms while the incumbent does not, but this will not likely be a determinative issue for the 2024 election campaign. TX-18: Rep. Jackson Lee (D) Files for Re-Election: Just two days after losing a landslide runoff election in the Houston Mayor’s campaign, veteran Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) quickly turned around and filed for re-election to the House. Candidate filing closed yesterday in Texas for the 2024 election cycle in preparation for the state’s March 5th primary. Now, we could potentially see a Democratic primary battle develop. Anticipating the seat would be open if Ms. Jackson Lee was elected Mayor, five Democrats filed as congressional candidates including former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards. It remains to be seen how many of these filed contenders decide to continue running now that the incumbent has returned. The 18th District is fully contained within Harris County. The population is 40% Hispanic, 34% black, and 6% Asian. Only 19% is recorded as non-Hispanic white. Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lead calculation is 73.6D – 24.4R. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so winning the Democratic nomination process is tantamount to claiming the seat. Vivek Ramaswamy: A Libertarian Option? Political speculation is percolating regarding reports that the national Libertarian Party may be looking toward GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy as their general election presidential nominee.
At this point, Mr. Ramaswamy says he is not interested in such an option and plans to continue his quest to top the GOP field. Since he is a long shot to overtake former President Trump and the other candidates currently running ahead of him, the idea of Mr. Ramaswamy as the Libertarian Party nominee may soon become a relevant discussion topic. New Jersey: Rep. Van Drew Won’t Run: The situation involving indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has brought a great deal of attention to the 2024 New Jersey Senate race. The Senator has not yet taken himself out of the discussion for next year’s election, but he will at the very least be seriously challenged for renomination. Both New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy and US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) are actively running.
One person who will not enter the Senate race, as was announced Friday, is Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The Congressman announced that he won’t become a Senate candidate but will seek re-election as US Representative for the people of New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District. CA-20: Devin Nunes Rumored to Return: Rumors abound in central California that former Congressman Devin Nunes (R) may file for resigning Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Bakersfield) open seat. Mr. Nunes has not denied he is considering making the move. To suggest the Nunes rumor has legs, both Assemblymen Devon Mathis (R-Visalia) and Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) have declined to run for the congressional seat. State Senator Shannon Graves (R-Bakersfield), who already represents 89% of the overlying congressional district, has yet to say whether she will run.
We won’t have to wait long to see a resolution. Though the 2024 candidate filing deadline was Friday, the period is extended five days when a district incumbent does not file for re-election. This means the CD-20 regular election field will be finalized on Wednesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will then set the calendar for a special election to fill the balance of the current term. OR-5: McLeod-Skinner Opens with Big Dem Lead: RMG Research, polling for the US Term Limits organization, conducted a short, small sample survey for Oregon’s 5th District Democratic primary (11/14-17 but released 12/8; 300 OR-5 likely voters; online). The winner will face freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley). The UST results find 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner leading state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) and Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, 41-9-4%. The pollsters concentrated only on the ballot test and asking the respondents about their support for federal term limits. With a small online sample of just 300 individuals, the error factor here is high (5.7%). Still, the size of Ms. McLeod-Skinner’s lead suggests that she is the favorite for the party nomination and has a major lead in name identification. A competitive general election in this politically marginal congressional district is promised. Houston: Whitmire Wins Mayoral Race: The Houston mayoral runoff was held on Saturday, and state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) easily outpaced US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) by a 64-36% margin. Because this is an odd-numbered year race, Rep. Jackson Lee did not have to risk her US House seat. She is now expected to seek re-election next year. Sen. Whitmire, the second-longest serving state legislator in Texas history and the Senator with the longest tenure, will leave the legislature to serve the four-year term as chief executive for America’s fourth largest city.
California: Schiff Leads in Two Polls: A pair of mid-November polls were released of the California Senate race, and both find Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading the pack of open seat candidates, but by a small margin. If these two polls prove accurate, Reps. Schiff and Katie Porter (D-Irvine) would advance into a double-Democratic general election to be decided in November. Former baseball great Steve Garvey is a close third and still could be in position to claim second place in the March 5th all-party jungle primary if he could unite the Republican vote.
Emerson College (11/11-14; 1,000 CA likely primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Schiff to a 16-13-10-9% advantage over Ms. Porter, Mr. Garvey, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), respectively. The University of California at Berkeley through the Public Policy Institute of California (11/9-16; 1,113 CA likely voters; online) conducted an extensive survey that included a ballot test question about the US Senate race. Their results, similar to those Emerson produced, projects Rep. Schiff leading the field by a larger 21-16-10-8% spread over Porter, Garvey, and Lee. NY-3: Democrats Nominate Ex-Rep. Suozzi: Though the timing took a bit longer than expected, the Nassau County Democratic Party chairman announced yesterday that former US Rep. Tom Suozzi will be the special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). Republicans are expected to name their candidate early next week.
While the prevailing wisdom is that Mr. Suozzi is a lock to convert the seat for the Democrats, an Opinion Diagnostics survey suggests the race may be closer than one might expect. The survey, conducted for financial executive Kellen Curry’s (R) campaign (11/30; 900 NY-3 registered voters; text & online) found Mr. Suozzi scoring only between 43.3 and 44.9% against three potential Republican special election nominees. The three Republicans record percentages between 38.0 and 39.9%, thus signaling a potentially competitive special election campaign. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) called the election for February 13th. NC-6: Rep. Manning Won’t Seek Re-Election: Two-term North Carolina US Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) announced yesterday that she will not file for re-election. Saying, “I would love nothing more than to continue representing our community in Congress. Unfortunately, the egregiously gerrymandered maps do not make this race competitive, and I cannot in good conscience ask people to invest their time, resources and efforts in a campaign that is rigged against us. However, if the impending lawsuits are successful and the General Assembly is forced to draw fair congressional districts, I will seek to continue my service to our community.” The new 6th District would have voted for Donald Trump in a 57-41% count. Under the Democratic court map, the 6th supported President Biden with a 56-43% margin. North Carolina redistricting had gone back and forth for a decade between the Republican legislature and the Democratic state Supreme Court. With the Republicans winning the court races in 2022, the court and legislature now approach redistricting legislation from largely the same viewpoint. Rep. Manning’s retirement means 36 seats are now open for the next election. A total of 22 of the open seats are currently Democratic held, 13 come from the Republican column, and one new seat is created under the new Alabama court-drawn redistricting plan. North Carolina: Lt. Gov. Robinson Still in Front: The open North Carolina Governor’s post will feature one of the most competitive such campaigns in the nation. The likely party nominees are Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D). Early polling has given Mr. Robinson a slight lead, and the new East Carolina University survey (11/29-12/1; 915 NC registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) draws a similar conclusion. The new numbers find Mr. Robinson posting a 44-40% general election lead over AG Stein.
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Mr. Robinson is completing his first term as Lt. Governor, while Mr. Stein will be serving his eighth year as Attorney General. The latter man’s most recent victory was a razor thin 50.1 – 49.9% in 2020 and further suggests that he begins this gubernatorial race in an underdog position. |
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