Greg Pence (R), older brother of Vice President Mike Pence, just saw his bid to win the seat his sibling previously represented grow stronger.  State Sen. Mike Crider (R-Jackson Township) has withdrawn from the congressional contest meaning that no elected official is currently challenging Mr. Pence in the Republican primary.  Candidate filing closes February 9th for the May 8th state primary.  At this point, it appears Mr. Pence is becoming the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie).  The Congressman is running for the Senate and has endorsed the Vice President’s brother in the open congressional race that he leaves behind.

--Jim Ellis

Five-term US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/ Portland) had been publicly toying with the idea of entering the open Maine Governor’s race next year, and promised a decision before the end of this year.  In keeping to her word, Rep. Pingree announced yesterday that she will focus on her career in Congress and will seek a sixth term from her 1st Congressional District. 
 
The Democratic field already numbers 11 candidates, including Attorney General Janet Mills, state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook), former state House Speaker Mark Eves, two former state legislators, and a combination of business people, educators, and political activists.  Five Republicans, including state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Liberty), Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon), and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport), are in the GOP primary.  Gov. Paul LePage (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

As expected, Attorney General Doug Chin (D) officially became a congressional candidate in the open 1st District earlier this week.  Mr. Chin made national headlines when he sued the Trump Administration over the travel ban Executive Order that the President issued early in his tenure.  Mr. Chin has never run for elective office, however, as the AG is an appointed position in Hawaii.  He also served as Honolulu’s City Manager, and as a prosecuting attorney.  Currently in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D-Moanalua), state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Kihei), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin.  Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is leaving the seat to challenge Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary.

--Jim Ellis

Despite Sen. Al Franken (D) not yet identifying a specific date for his pending resignation to become effective, other potential office seekers are already beginning to make definitive moves.  State Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Mary’s Point/Washington County) announced yesterday that she will enter the special election contest to serve the balance of the current Senate term.  Sen. Housley’s husband is Phil Housley, the head coach of the Buffalo Sabres NHL hockey club.  As a player whose career spanned 20 seasons, Mr. Housley was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame as the second highest scorer of all-time among American players.   Sen. Housley was first elected to the legislature in 2012, won a second term last year, is a realtor, and hosts her own radio program.
 
On the other end of the spectrum, state Sen. Michelle Benson (R-Ham Lake/Anoka County), the body’s Deputy Majority Leader, indicated that she will not become a Senate candidate.  Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) continues to be mentioned as a potential contender, but other than him not completely closing the door on running the Minnesota ex-chief executive hasn’t given any tangible indication that he is preparing a return to elective politics.
 
The Senate special will run concurrently with the regular election cycle.  The eventual Republican nominee will likely run against appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D), who will take office once Franken officially departs.   

--Jim Ellis

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted a survey of the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary where new Governor Henry McMaster (R) is gearing up for a challenge from three fellow Republicans.  The first public poll looks good for the Governor, who ascended to his position from the Lt. Governor’s post when the state’s former chief executive, Nikki Haley (R), resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump Administration. 
 
According to the M-D data (12/6-10; 625 SC registered voters; 400 Republican regular primary voters), Gov. McMaster would lead former state cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton, 51-21%, while Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant garners only 8% support, and former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill secures just 1% backing.  The South Carolina primary is June 12th, with a June 26th run-off if no candidate secures a majority vote.

--Jim Ellis

State. Rep. Tim Miller (R-Prinsburg), who had been forecast as a legitimate challenger to veteran Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes), withdrew from the congressional challenge yesterday citing early fundraising difficulties.  He will instead seek re-election to the state House.  The move leaves 2016 challenger David Hughes and businessman Matt Prosch as announced Republican candidates.  Mr. Hughes held Rep. Peterson to a 52-47% victory, but spent just under $20,000 in doing so.  Though the 7th performed as the strongest Republican district in Minnesota for the 2016 presidential contest, Mr. Peterson has still been re-elected here 13 consecutive times after initially winning in 1990.
 
--Jim Ellis

Pennsylvania Democratic state Sen. Daylin Leach (D-King of Prussia) now finds himself hit with sexual harassment allegations from several women, and this is affecting his congressional campaign.  As a result of the controversy, Sen. Leach announced he is “taking a step back” from his congressional challenge to four-term Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford).  Mr. Leach was viewed as the Democrats’ strongest congressional challenger, but the chances of him now moving forward with his federal campaign are slim.  In fact, even his days in the legislature may be numbered.  Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has already publicly called upon him to immediately resign from the state Senate.  Four Democrats remain in the race against Rep. Meehan, but none appears particularly strong at this point in time.

--Jim Ellis

A month after songwriter Lee Thomas Miller (R) announced for Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-Brentwood) open Nashville suburban congressional seat, he ended his fledgling campaign.  Saying he “would have to compromise too much of what he believed in” to run a successful campaign, Mr. Miller instead ended his quest.  This leaves state Senator and physician Mark Green (R-Clarksville) as the leading contender.  Sen. Green was President Trump’s choice for US Army Secretary, but was forced to withdraw when it appeared his nomination had confirmation trouble.  When Rep. Blackburn decided to run for the Senate, Dr. Green then hopped into the open House race and appears quickly to becoming the early prohibitive favorite.

--Jim Ellis

New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morristown), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, figures to be a Democratic conversion target next year and now his general election opponent may be identified.  Last week, Passaic County Freeholder John Bartlett (D), despite already raising more than $230,000 for his budding congressional campaign, withdrew from the federal race and instead will seek re-election to his local position.  Though Mr. Bartlett was doing relatively well, his effort paled when compared to attorney and Navy veteran Mikie Sherrill (D) who has already raised more than $740,000 and has just under $500,000 in the bank.  Four other Democratic challengers remain, but Ms. Sherrill appears to be positioning herself as the prohibitive favorite to win the party nomination in June.  This will be a race to watch in November.

--Jim Ellis

Democratic attorney Andrea Ramsey announced that she will end her quest to challenge Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) after a former male associate accused her of sexually harassing him over 12 years ago.  This is the first instance of a female being accused and thwarting a political goal.  Five Democratic challengers remain, including 2016 party nominee Jay Sidie who held Mr. Yoder to a 51-41% re-election victory.

--Jim Ellis