California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman In: Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5th all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.
Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “…because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country." Ms. Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.” New Jersey: Constituents Favor Resignation: A new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (8/6-14; 813 NJ adults; live interview & text) finds that 70% of the respondents, including 71% of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court. So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the Senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others. MN-2: Republicans Have New Candidate: The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Yesterday, former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy. In the last two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges: Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open Governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.
The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1% of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the Governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Marist College: First Three-Way Poll: Marist College, polling for National Public Radio (10/11; 1,218 US registered voters), is the first survey research entity to release a Biden-Trump-Kennedy poll since Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced he would run in the general election as an Independent.
While the Biden-Trump ballot test found President Biden leading 49-46%, which is slightly better for the incumbent than most other current national polls, the addition of Mr. Kennedy sees the electorate break away from Mr. Trump to the greater degree. The three-way result is 44-37-16% in favor of Mr. Biden. The big difference comes in the Independent sector. In a two-way, Independents break toward Mr. Trump, 49-43%. When Mr. Kennedy is added, the Trump-Biden-Kennedy split evolves to 34-33-29%, respectively. Montana: Good News & Bad News for Sen. Tester: Emerson College surveyed the Montana electorate (10/1-4; 447 MT registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) as part of a series of polls conducted in several states. Here, we see Sen. Jon Tester (D) leading aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) by a close 39-35% split. The good news for Sen. Tester in this poll is his maintaining a lead in a state the Republicans must win if they are to claim the Senate majority. The bad news is he fails to even reach the 40% plateau.
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who most believe will enter the race, was not tested because he is not yet an announced candidate. Former Secretary of State Brad Johnson (R) just declared his own candidacy, so he, too, was not included. AZ-8: Two New Candidate Possibilities: Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko’s (R-Peoria) retirement announcement has potentially attracted two well known names from the 2022 election cycle. Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh, who lost the statewide race by just 280 votes of over 2.5 million votes cast, and US Senate nominee Blake Masters are among the Republicans being mentioned as potentially having interest in the newly open congressional seat.
North Carolina: New Redistricting Maps Released: Tar Heel State legislative leaders yesterday released two proposed congressional maps for legislators to consider. Both would improve Republican prospects and likely break the current 7D-7R map into a plan that would largely benefit the GOP. Each map would endanger three Democratic incumbents: Reps. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro), Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). The first map would likely return a 10R-4D split, while the second plan could conceivably bring the Republicans a 11R-3D division. The legislators will now have the opportunity to debate the map proposals, consolidate the draws into one map, and amend the bills. Once the legislature passes a final plan, expect the Democrats to sue. The state Supreme Court will likely have to make a final ruling, but this is a much different judicial panel from the one that continued to reject the legislature’s intent during the past decade. In 2022, Republicans captured a majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, reversing the Democrats’ 4-3 edge. The new court features five Republicans and two Democrats. Getting to the US Supreme Court is a much more difficult exercise because SCOTUS has generally made the state Supreme Courts the redistricting final arbiter. VA-10: Del. Filler-Corn Switches to House Race: Former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Springfield), who was ousted as Minority Leader after the Democrats lost the state House majority in the 2021 election, has altered her future political path. Originally saying she was not running for re-election to the state House of Delegates in order to prepare a run for Governor in 2025, Ms. Filler-Corn announced yesterday that she now won’t run statewide but will instead enter the 2024 open 10th Congressional District race. Incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) is retiring due to health considerations. The 10th District will remain in Democratic hands, but next year’s nomination process promises to feature a competitive party primary. Democratic Poll: Harris vs. Newsom: Rumors have been rampant that the Democrats may somehow soon replace President Biden as the party nominee. The Premise survey research company (10/11-16; 1,417 US registered voters; 847 US Democratic registered voters; online) just tested the highly unlikely supposition.
The pollsters paired Vice President Kamala Harris against California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Many believe that Newsom would be Biden’s hypothetical replacement, but this first poll doesn’t concur. Premise reports a Harris lead over Newsom of 23-15% with a huge undecided factor. Expect President Biden to again become the Democratic nominee. AZ-8: Rep. Debbie Lesko (R) to Retire: Three-plus term Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election to her state’s 8th Congressional District next year.
The Congresswoman indicated that time away from her family, including her 94-year old mother, while expressing frustration saying, “it is hard to get anything done [in Congress],” led to the decision to bring her political career to a close. Ms. Lesko first won election to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2008, before capturing a state Senate seat in 2014. After US Rep. Trent Franks (R) resigned from Congress, Ms. Lesko won the 2018 special election to become his successor. She was re-elected to a full term in the 2018 regular election and easily won two additional terms. AZ-8 is reliably Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+22. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 57.3R – 40.8D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 8th as the 77th most vulnerable district in the current 221-member GOP Conference. Former President Donald Trump scored a 56.1 – 42.5% victory over President Biden here in 2020. MI-13: Ex-Sen. Hollier to Challenge Rep. Thanedar: Former Michigan state Senator Adam Hollier, as expected announced a re-match Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) yesterday. Mr. Hollier lost to Rep. Thanedar in a crowded 2022 primary by a 28-24% margin within a crowded field of nine candidates. It is also likely that another of the 2022 candidates, John Conyers, III, son of the late Rep. John Conyers who held the Detroit anchored seat for 52 years, will also soon join the race. This will be a hotly contested August 2024 Democratic primary, but it could end the way of the last campaign. If more candidates enter the race again creating a crowded field, the more likely the incumbent will prevail. NJ-3: All In: In New Jersey, the state legislature is divided into 40 legislative districts. Voters in each domain elect one state Senator and two Assemblymen. With 3rd Congressional District incumbent Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) now challenging Sen. Bob Menendez in next year’s Democratic primary, the congressional seat will be open. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat since part of the capital city of Trenton was added to the district in the 2021 redistricting plan. From the 7th legislative district, it appears that all three Democratic members, state Senate Majority Whip Troy Singleton (D-Moorestown), and Assemblymembers Herb Conaway (D-Delran) and Majority Whip Carol Murphy (D-Cinnaminson) are all potential congressional candidates. It will be the first time the three ran against each other as opposed to being part of the Democratic legislative slate. Ms. Murphy is an announced congressional candidate. Sen. Singleton and Assemblyman Conaway confirm they are considering the federal race. AZ-2: Former Navajo Nation President Declares for House Seat: Jonathan Nez (D), the former Navajo Nation President who lost his re-election bid in 2022, is now looking to challenge for a congressional seat. He is organizing to oppose freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the eight Republican members who voted to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In 2022, Mr. Crane unseated Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) in a northern Arizona district that now significantly favors the Republicans. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+15. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 53.4R – 44.4D.
MI-10: Dem Challenger Field Grows Larger: Surgeon and former congressional candidate Anil Kumar (D) declared his candidacy in the Detroit suburban 10th Congressional District hoping to oppose freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Mr. Kumar is now the seventh Democrat to enter the race. The field includes former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga who held Mr. James to a tight 48.8 – 48.3% victory in the 2022 general election from a district rated as a pure toss-up. We can expect another tough campaign here next year. MN-5: Rep. Omar Opponent to Return: Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a tight 50-48% Democratic primary victory in 2022, announced he will return for a re-match next year. Expect this to again become a serious primary challenge. Already in the race are attorney Sarah Gad and businessman Tim Peterson, but Mr. Samuels is the key challenger. This seat will be decided in the Democratic primary scheduled for August 13th. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-5 as D+57. NC-1: Rep. Davis Draws New Opponent Before New Maps are Unveiled: Retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R), who now runs a successful consulting business and has the ability to self-fund her campaign, surprisingly announced her congressional candidacy just before the new North Carolina redistricting maps are set to be released. Freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District could be one of the seats that dramatically changes under the new plan. Three other Republicans had previously announced. The redistricting map will go a long way toward determining the degree of competitiveness of this and several other seats in the Tar Heel State delegation. NC-6: Rep. Manning to Possibly Face High Point Mayor: Another potential congressional candidate announced his political attention just before the new North Carolina congressional map will soon be made public. High Point Mayor Jay Wagner (R), looking to take advantage of what is very likely to be a more Republican 6th District is the early favorite to become Rep. Kathy Manning’s (D-Greensboro) general election challenger. Also in the race is 2022 GOP challenger Christian Castelli who lost to Rep. Manning 54-45% in a result that was a bit closer than most observers expected. MN-3: Rep. Phillips Draws Significant Dem Primary Challenge: Responding to Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) repeatedly calling for individuals to step forward and challenge President Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination, Democratic National Committee member Ron Harris announced his own intra-party challenge to the Congressman. While Rep. Phillips is still not completely ruling out entering the presidential contest, he will now have to concentrate on a Minnesota party convention fight and potentially an August 2024 primary challenge.
Rep. Phillips was first elected in 2018, defeating then-Congressman Erik Paulsen (R). He has averaged 56.9% of the vote in his three elections. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-3 as D+14. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 63rd most vulnerable district in the 212-member Democratic Conference. UT-2: New Poll Released for 11/21 Special Election: Lighthouse Research conducted a poll of the state’s 2nd District special election for the Utah Debate Commission that would decide which candidates would qualify for the October 26th local PBS forum. The UDC (9/26-10/6; 528 UT-2 registered voters) required that candidates receive at least 5.74% support in the poll. Libertarian Brad Green only posted 5.68%, meaning he failed to qualify under the Commission rules by the slimmest of margins. Republican Celeste Maloy, resigned Rep. Chris Stewart’s (R) former legal counsel, placed first in the survey with 42.8% of the vote. State Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights), was second with 34.3%. Ms. Maloy’s showing should be considered an underperformance for the Republican nominee in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank as the 81st most vulnerable district within the 221-member Republican Conference. The special election is scheduled for November 21st. |
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