CA-21: Rep. Costa in Dead Heat: The Trafalgar Group released the first post-primary survey of California’s new 21st Congressional District and the results reveal a surprising dead heat between Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) and businessman and former FBI agent Michael Maher (R). The poll (9/30/10-3; 515 CA-21 likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds the two candidates tied at 44 percent.
While the Central Valley region is showing signs of voting more conservatively than the rest of the Golden State electorate, the Republicans taking this district would be quite a stretch. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the new 21st, which includes downtown Fresno, as D+16 while the Dave’s Redistricting App crew calculates a 58.2D – 39.7R partisan lean. In the jungle primary, Rep. Costa unexpectedly received just 47.0% of the vote, but the Democratic aggregate total was 57.0%. FL-27: Tight Race Prediction Coming True: In 2020, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) upset then-Rep. Donna Shalala (D) from a South Florida district that votes Republican to a greater degree than the voter registration figures might suggest. The GOP redistricting map drawers made the seat more favorable for Rep. Salazar, but it still rates as a D+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and 52.4D – 46.5R on the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan scale. Therefore, it is not surprising to see a SEA Polling & Strategic Design survey (10/3-5; 400 FL-27 likely general election voters; live interview) finding state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami) and Rep. Salazar in a virtual dead heat (Taddeo, 47-46%). The poll also found Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading former Governor and Congressman Charlie Crist (D), 50-44% within the 27th District, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R) held a 48-47% edge over Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando). Oklahoma: Shock Poll: Largely due to fallout from his Administration’s handling of some of the Covid 19 relief expenditures and attacks over his former business dealings, polling has suggested weakness for Gov. Kevin Stitt’s (R) re-election bid. Now we see a new survey that, for the first time, projects the Governor falling behind his Democratic opponent, Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D).
The Sooner Poll, which surveys the Oklahoma electorate for various media outlets, released their new data (10/3-6; 301 OK likely general election voters) and sees Ms. Hofmeister holding a surprising 47-44% lead. Though the Sooner Poll contains a very small sample and therefore a high error factor, it is becoming clear that this race will now draw further national attention. Arizona: Confirming Data: Two days ago, CBS News/YouGov released a survey of the Arizona Senate race (9/30-10/4; 1,164 AZ registered voters; online) that found GOP challenger Blake Masters pulling to within a 51-48% margin of Sen. Mark Kelly (D). Yesterday, CNN publicized their Arizona survey (conducted by SSRS; 9/26-10/2; 795 AZ likely voters; live interview & text) that largely confirms the aforementioned results. In the CNN/SSRS poll, Sen. Kelly’s holds a 51-45% advantage.
Iowa: Grassley Expands Lead: In a national race that has not drawn much attention from pollsters, the Cygnal polling organization (10/2-4; 600 IA likely voters) did test the Hawkeye State electorate and finds Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), running for an eighth term since originally being elected in 1980, leading retired Admiral Mike Franken (D) by a 54-40% count. Though Sen. Grassley’s favorability rating has dropped to 50:44% favorable to unfavorable, the ballot test suggests he is still in strong position to win re-election in November. Adm. Franken’s favorability index is a similar, but lower at 33:28%. Cygnal reports the Republicans have a +13 on the generic ballot question, which should help the party’s candidates throughout the entire ballot. Nebraska: Sen. Ben Sasse to Resign: Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse (R), who was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020, announced yesterday that, pending approval from the University of Florida Board of Trustees, he will resign his seat before the end of the year to become the University of Florida’s new president. His leaving the Senate will mean that either outgoing Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) or presumed incoming Governor Jim Pillen (R), the University of Nebraska Regent who is heavily favored to win the gubernatorial election, will appoint a replacement. Since the current term for this seat does not expire until the beginning of 2027, the seat will go to special election in 2024 to fill the balance of the term. This particular Class II Senate seat next comes in-cycle in 2026. Arizona: CBS News Projects Masters Closing: A new CBS News/YouGov survey (9/30-10/4; 1,164 AZ registered voters; online) sees GOP challenger Blake Masters pulling to within three percentage points of Sen. Mark Kelly (D), 51-48%. With Masters finally running ads from his own campaign committee, and outside organizations coming into the state to further target Sen. Kelly, we can expect this race to continue its competitive pace all the way through November 8th.
Sen. Kelly, one of the most prolific fundraisers of any Senate candidate, will not likely reach the $100+ million in spending that he needed for the 2020 special election, but approaching the $75 million mark in outlays is highly possible. As we know, Arizona is one of the key races that will determine the next Senate majority. Georgia: Conflicting Data: Just as the negative stories about GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker’s personal and family life began to appear in the media, along with his son coming forward to further the attacks, two conflicting surveys were released. The first, from Insider Advantage, a frequent Georgia pollster (10/4; 550 GA likely voters), finds Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) holding only a 47-44% lead over Mr. Walker. Survey USA (9/30-10/4; 1,076 GA likely voters; online) has a much different take, and actually produces one of the best polls from Sen. Warnock’s perspective since late July. The S-USA ballot test gives the Senator a much larger 50-38% advantage. With the negative publicity surrounding Walker, we can expect the Republican prospects to take a dip here during at least the next few days. Since the Georgia Senate race has trended close for most of the campaign year, and this type of story has been previously publicized about Walker, it would not be surprising to see a GOP bounce-back before election day. MI-8: Junge Take Lead Over Rep. Kildee: A just released internal Cygnal poll for the Paul Junge (pronounced: Young) campaign (9/27-30; 335 MI-8 likely voters) sees the GOP challenger, a former news anchor and 2020 congressional nominee in the former 8th District against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly/Lansing), pulling into a one-point 45-44% lead against five-term Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flushing/Flint). This campaign has not gotten much national play, but the two candidates have been very active, and the party organizations are spending large amounts in eastern Michigan to deliver negative messages.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat a R+1, while the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean sees a 50.8 – 46.0% spread in favor of the Democrats. This is a national under-the-radar race destined to attract more attention. Arizona: A Dead Heat: The aforementioned CBS/YouGov poll (see Arizona Senate above) also tested the Arizona Governor’s race. Here, as other pollsters routinely find, the race between Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and news anchor Kari Lake (R) is extremely close. In the CBS/YouGov survey that posted Sen. Kelly to a three-point edge, the gubernatorial ballot test finds both candidates deadlocked at 49% apiece.
New Mexico: A Tightening Ballot Test: After several weeks of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) developing comfortable polling leads over Republican former television meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, a Cygnal poll conducted for GOP Attorney General candidate Jeremy Gay (9/27-29; 400 NM likely modeled general election voters; interactive voice response system & text) sees the pair of gubernatorial candidates falling within a two-point margin, 46-44%, but still in the Governor’s favor. The sample size for this statewide poll is low, so the error factor is relatively high. Both candidates are very active, so we can expect that the New Mexico gubernatorial contest will draw further national attention before the election cycle concludes. Redistricting: Supreme Court Hears Alabama Case: In one of the first cases on the US Supreme Court’s new term docket, oral arguments were heard for the Alabama racial gerrymandering redistricting case, which could result in a landmark ruling relating to future interpretation of the Voting Rights Act.
The state of Alabama is arguing its reasons for keeping the state’s congressional map that features one strong majority minority district. The US Government is arguing that a second minority seat can be drawn. The presentations consumed more time than usual for Supreme Court oral arguments, and now it is up to the nine Justices to craft a definitive ruling, which will be released sometime before June of next year. In November, the high court will hear oral arguments on the North Carolina redistricting case that will lead to a definitive ruling pertaining to judicial power over the constitutional authority of state legislatures. CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Slight Lead: Despite representing a relatively safely Republican western slope 3rd Congressional District, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) looks to have a competitive race on her hands as we begin the campaign cycle’s final weeks. Colorado-based Keating Research conducted a poll for the Adam Frisch (D) campaign (9/28-10/2; 500 CO-3 likely voters; live interview & text). The ballot test results found Rep. Boebert’s lead shrinking to 47-45%, down from Keating’s 49-42% spread detected in its July survey. Expect to see countering numbers from either the Boebert campaign or the National Republican Congressional Committee to soon be released. NM-2: Gerrymandered District Yields Dem a Slight Edge: The Global Strategy Group, polling for the Gabe Vasquez (D) campaign, tested the NM-2 electorate to determine the state of the race featuring freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) and Mr. Vasquez, a Las Cruces City Councilman. The GSG survey (9/20-26; 500 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) sees Mr. Vasquez pulling ahead of Rep. Herrell, 45-43%. The result is not particularly surprising in that the Democratic legislature and Governor crafted the new 2nd CD to flip. Before redistricting, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated the seat, R+14. Post-redistricting, we see a D+4 categorization. This district will still yield a close finish, and voter turnout will tell the ultimate tale. NJ-7: Rep. Malinowski Internal Poll Shows Dead Heat: The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research organization conducted a congressional poll for two-term Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill), who is again in a tight battle with former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R). In 2020, Mr. Kean held Rep. Malinowski to a 51-49% re-election win in a district that was more Democratic than the new 7th. The GQR survey (9/20-26; 500 NJ-7 likely general election voters) sees both candidates now attracting 48% of the vote. The Democratic pollster, however, also detects a partisan generic party label split of 50-45% favoring the Republicans. NJ-7 is a key Republican conversion opportunity seat. NY-22: Republican Breaks Ahead: The Syracuse anchored 22nd District is open in the 2022 election cycle because Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse), one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump, is not seeking a fifth term. Ironically, the court-drawn map actually makes this district two points more Republican than the seat the Rep. Katko consistently won. Siena College conducted an independent poll for the Spectrum News Service (9/25-28; 453 NY-22 likely general election voters) and sees Republican technology company executive Brandon Williams jumping out to a five point, 45-40%, advantage over former Intelligence Agency analyst Francis Conole (D). With the respondents believing the country is on the wrong track by a 25:63% margin, it is not particularly surprising to also see Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) falling behind Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) in this Upstate District. NY-22 is a must win for the GOP in November. Georgia: Sen. Warnock Continues to Attract Big Bucks: Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D) campaign leadership is reporting that they raised an incredible $26.3 million just in the third quarter. Prior to this impending Federal Election Commission disclosure report due on October 15th, Sen. Warnock had outraised every Senate incumbent and challenger by at least $30 million. His new aggregate total of approximately $111 million raised for the entire campaign will certainly keep him in the financial driver’s seat. The campaign spokesperson said the Warnock committee has over $13 million cash-on-hand available for the final five weeks.
Indiana: Another Close Survey: Back in August, Change Research released a survey that found Sen. Todd Young (R) ahead of Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott (D) by only a slim 45-42% margin. Most believed this survey to be an anomaly. Now, the ARW Strategies polling entity, surveying for the Indy Politics blog (9/25-26; 600 IN likely general election voters), has arrived at a similar conclusion more than a month later. The ARW results find Sen. Young’s advantage to be only 39-37% opposite Mayor McDermott. Libertarian candidate James Sceniak accounts for 6% of the preference total with the remainder saying they are undecided. These again are puzzling numbers since Sen. Young is not exhibiting any signs of political trouble in a state where his party consistently wins elections and is favored across the board in 2022. Chances are good we will see more attention from both sides being paid to this race as we move toward the campaign’s closing weeks. Nevada: Laxalt Ahead in Sixth Consecutive Poll: OH Predictive Insights, a frequent pollster in the southwest, released their new Nevada numbers. The survey (9/20-29; 741 NV likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) leading Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by a 45-43% margin. This is the sixth consecutive poll, from six individual research firms during a long September 8-29 time frame, that forecasts Mr. Laxalt with a small lead; an average of just over two percentage points. The most troubling aspect from the Democratic perspective is that Sen. Cortez Masto only averages 43.3% preference with a highwater mark of just 46% within this group of studies. Her performance is far below the 50% plateau and very low for any incumbent. It now appears that Nevada is the Republicans’ best national US Senate conversion opportunity. PA-17: Dem Leading in Open Seat Race: A just released brilliant corners firm survey (polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; 9/18-20; 400 PA-17 likely general election voters) containing a high disclosed error rate of 4.9%, posts Democratic election law attorney and college professor Chris Deluzio to a six-point, 49-43%, lead over GOP engineer and former local elected official Jeremy Shaffer.
The open 17th District, located in the western Pittsburgh suburbs and encompasses the territory all the way to the Ohio border, is a swing district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates D+1. Detecting a Republican resurgence around the country after September 20th, it will be interesting to see what more recent data might show for this campaign. This region’s voting history suggests the 17th District remains a toss-up race. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|