NJ-8: Mayor May Primary Rep. Menendez: While Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is publicly defending himself over a new indictment brought against he, his wife, and three other associates, freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the Senator’s son who has defended his father, may be looking at a serious primary challenge.
New Jersey’s 8th Congressional District is solidly Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+47. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-8 as the 167th safest seat of the 212-member House Democratic Conference. Therefore, Rep. Menendez’s more significant re-election obstacle is renomination. Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) confirmed yesterday that he is considering launching such a primary challenge. Hoboken, with a population just over 53,000 residents, represents about 7% of the 8th District’s population but is a considerably larger share of a Democratic primary vote. Montana: Libertarians Change Bylaws: The Montana Libertarian Party has made a significant change to their party bylaws. Beginning immediately, the MLP may now officially endorse a member of another party even if a Libertarian is in the same race. This is significant because the single-digit Libertarian vote has been a thorn in the Republicans’ side since their candidates tend to draw from GOP candidates. This causes certain close races, such as in Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) past campaigns, to allow a Democrat to win with a plurality or small majority support.
Should the Montana Libertarian Party decide to endorse the Republican candidate in the upcoming Senate race and not file their own contender, such would be a plus for the eventual GOP nominee. ABC/Washington Post Poll: Again Finds Trump with Big Lead: For the second consecutive time, the ABC/Washington Post (9/15-20; 890 US registered voters; live interview) sees former President Donald Trump building a large lead over President Biden. The latest numbers give Mr. Trump a 51-42% national advantage, and a larger 52-39% lead within the Independent segment. In May, the ABC/Washington Post survey found Mr. Trump leading by a similar 49-42% margin.
Once again, the ABC/WaPo poll gives Trump a bigger lead than other polls conducted during a similar time frame. Since September 14th, six national surveys have been conducted from six different pollsters, and these firms see Mr. Trump holding leads of four and one point, with four ties. New Jersey: Sen. Menendez Indicted: Garden State Senator Bob Menendez (D), who is in-cycle next year, was indicted on Friday along with his wife and three others. All five defendants were charged on two counts: bribery, and honest services fraud, as it relates to an Egyptian foreign affairs funding issue. Senator and Mrs. Menendez were also indicted on a conspiracy to commit extortion charge. How this affects the 2024 Senate election remains to be determined.
Sen. Menendez beat a different set of federal charges in 2015. In response to this latest indictment, he said, “For years, forces behind the scenes have repeatedly attempted to silence my voice and dig my political grave. To my supporters, friends and the community at large, I ask that you recall the other times the prosecutors got it wrong and that you reserve judgement." New Jersey is a strong Democratic state, so the June 2024 primary election may be the Senator’s toughest obstacle. Credible candidates currently in the race are municipal planning director Kevin Cupples and real estate financing company executive Kyle Jasey. Former Governor Chris Christie, still a presidential candidate, confirmed after the Menendez indictment announcement that he will not run for the Senate. Some Democratic leaders, however, are calling upon Sen. Menendez to resign. Among them are Gov. Phil Murphy, Attorney General Matt Platkin, and Reps. Donald Norcross (D-Camden City), Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson), and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair). At this point, the lone House member making a public statement in Mr. Menendez’s favor is Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the Senator’s son. FL-9: A Plethora of Candidates: In a seat that should be solid for Democrats, former Kissimmee City Commissioner and ex-congressional candidate Wanda Rentas surprisingly became the sixth Republican to enter the 2024 GOP primary. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district D+16 and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks FL-9 as the 85th safest Democratic seat in the House, the local Republicans think the district can be won. In 2022, Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) won a fourth term with a lower than expected 54-46% victory margin.
Among the six GOP candidates we find former state Representative and ex-Osceola County Commissioner John Quinones. It is likely that the race will winnow down to a contest between Mr. Quinones and Ms. Rentas, but both would still begin the general election as a clear underdog to Rep. Soto. OH-13: Challenger Candidate Withdraws: Attorney Greg Wheeler (R), who had declared his candidacy for Congress months ago, on Friday announced that he would suspend his campaign. This leaves Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg as the lone Republican candidate hoping to challenge freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Mr. Banweg then announced that Sen. J.D. Vance (R) is endorsing his candidacy, which may be a precursor to the party establishment soon following suit. For a time, it was believed that former Ohio Republican Party chair and 2022 US Senate candidate Jane Timken might enter the race, but she has since removed her name from consideration. Rep. Sykes defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) in last November’s election by a 53-47% margin. Originally, Ms. Gilbert, too, was planning to run in 2024, but last month withdrew to accept a spokesperson’s position with the Republican National Committee. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-13 as D+2. The Daily Kos Elections site rank the district as the 13th most vulnerable seat within the Democratic conference. Michigan: Another Candidate to Announce: According to the Politico publication, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) will announce his US Senate candidacy at the beginning of October. Mr. Craig had filed to run for Governor in 2022 but failed to return the proper number of valid petition signatures, thus disqualifying him.
Assuming this report is true, Mr. Craig will enter an August 6th Republican primary against the favorite for the nomination, former Congressman Mike Rogers, and Michigan Board of Education member Nikki Snyder who was the first candidate to announce. The winner will then likely challenge Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is favored to win the Democratic nomination. IL-17: Former Local Judge to Run for Congress: Former Circuit Judge Joseph McGraw (R), who resigned from the bench in July igniting speculation that he would run for Congress, has filed an organizational committee with the Federal Election Commission. He would join a field that includes businessman Ray Estrada and farmer Scot Crowl. The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) in a heavily gerrymandered district that begins in the city of Rockford, meanders west to capture the Illinois side of the Quad Cities, then back east to the cities of Galesburg, Peoria, and Bloomington.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.1D – 44.0R. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. Republican Esther Joy King twice ran here, losing a competitive 2022 battle to Mr. Sorensen by a 52-48% count. IN-4: Rep. Baird Reportedly Won’t Run for Re-Election: The local Indiana blog Howey Politics is reporting that US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) is planning to retire in 2024 but may time his announcement to block other Republicans from challenging his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R). The 4th District, located north and west of Indianapolis, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+33. The Daily Kos House overview ranks IN-4 as the 59th safest seat in the Republican conference. Now that local media reports are already covering this story, the element of surprise has been lost. Therefore, potential candidates wanting to run will now be ready to file in case that Rep. Baird does not. ME-2: Republican Primary Developing: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which has delivered an electoral vote to Donald Trump both in 2016 and 2020, is rated as the second most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+10 yet, and largely thanks to Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won three consecutive elections here. With former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) out of the 2024 picture, Republican leaders were pleased to see state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) come forward last week to declare his congressional candidacy. Now, Mr. Theriault has company. Fellow state Rep. Michael Soboleski (R-Phillips) yesterday declared his candidacy, thus creating a Republican nomination battle in the June 18, 2024, state primary. Regardless of who wins the party nomination, ME-2 will be a major GOP target race next year. Pennsylvania: Republicans Get Their Man: David McCormick, the former CEO of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund who lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes in the 2022 Pennsylvania US Senate race, will announce later today that he is returning next year to challenge Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D). Though an uphill battle, Mr. McCormick’s presence gives the Republicans a credible candidate with whom to challenge the three-term incumbent.
Though Pennsylvania decidedly leans Democratic, it is one of the top targeted states in the presidential election. While that will mean more focus on former President Donald Trump throughout the general election campaign, it also means that Mr. McCormick will be the beneficiary of more party resources being spent on organization and voter turnout operations. At this point, Sen. Casey must be rated a clear favorite for re-election, but this contest is now a race to watch. CO-4: Rep. Buck Face Potential GOP Challenge; May Resign: Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who has been critical of the House Republican leadership for moving to an impeachment hearing against President Biden, may resign his seat. Apparently, he is talking to both MSNBC and CNN about developing a contractual relationship.
Additionally, as a direct result of his latest Republican-on-Republican attacks, Rep. Buck may have drawn a potential GOP primary challenger. State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R-Akron) filed a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances against Rep. Buck in the expansive eastern Colorado district. The 4th District is safely Republican (R+26 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) and encompasses most of the Colorado territory north and east of the Denver metropolitan area. Utah: Ex-Rep Chaffetz Unlikely to Run: Former Congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz (R) yesterday ruled out challenging Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican primary and also said, while not closing the door on running for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) open seat, that the Senate race is “not something I’m actively pursuing.” The political move that he finds most attractive at present is entering the open 2028 gubernatorial campaign when Gov. Cox will be ineligible to seek re-election.
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