Yesterday we reported that Siena College/New York Times tested the 2nd District of Maine, the state’s northern seat, (9/11-16; 440 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) and sees the Biden advantage to be 47-45%, while the Global Strategy Group surveyed NE -2 (9/14-16; 400 NE-2 likely voters; live interview) found a 51-45% Biden advantage in that district. Now Suffolk University released their own Maine poll. The 2nd District portion (9/17-20; 233 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) also forecasts a 47-45% split, thus providing confirmation for the Siena College/NYT conclusion.
A Siena College/New York Times survey (9/14-16; 625 MT likely voters) finds Democratic former state Representative and 2018 congressional nominee Kathleen Williams taking a small lead over Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. The ballot test gives Ms. Williams a 44-41% edge, confirming that this race is turning into a toss-up campaign.
In 2018, Ms. Williams lost to Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman), now the GOP nominee for Governor, by a 51-46% count. In late October of that year, two polls found the contest leaning to Ms. Williams or falling into a tie, while the final research study conducted just before Election Day, from Change Research, almost exactly pegged the actual result. Republican pollster American Viewpoint returned a survey in California’s 21st District, a seat that encompasses parts of the cities of Fresno and Bakersfield (9/8-10; 400 CA-21 likely voters; live interview), and sees former US Rep. David Valadao (R) leading freshman Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) by a 49-38% margin. In 2018, Rep. Cox unseated Mr. Valadao by an 862-vote margin. The Republican appears to be in strong shape for the general election even though President Trump will lose this district.
Before the 2014 election, Alaska enacted a procedure to allow candidates to run with multiple party designations. Earlier this month, the State Division of Elections director reversed the practice and ruled that only major party designations would appear next to a candidate’s name on the ballot.
At-large congressional candidate Alyse Galvin, who wants to run as a NP (Non-Partisan)/ Democrat was denied that full ballot designation, meaning she would appear only as the Democratic nominee. She sued in court to overturn the administrative ruling. Ms. Galvin won at the lower court level and since the state Supreme Court refused to hear the case yesterday, the lower ruling stands, so the original designation now returns for Ms. Galvin. Senate candidate Al Gross is also affected in similar manner. The lower court ruling said it would be an undue burden on the state to be forced to re-print all of the ballots at this point in time with the altered party identifications, hence the basis for their decision. In March, Democratic challenger Marie Newman denied Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) re-nomination in what would be the first of eight incumbent defeats in primary elections. It was presumed Ms. Newman would cruise in the general election in what is typically a safe Democratic congressional district, but a new poll suggests otherwise.
The Ogden & Fry research firm conducted a flash poll on September 7th (759 IL-3 likely voters based upon a 2020 projection model) and found a surprising result. The respondents favored Ms. Newman with only a 46-44% margin over Republican Mike Fricilone, a Will County Board member. Even if this poll is accurate, the race won’t turn into a competitive contest. Mr. Fricilone had only raised $49,000 through the last published financial disclosure report (June 30th), and is unlikely to have the resources to compete down the stretch. Maine and Nebraska are the two states that split their electoral votes, and the two districts that have a tendency to vote opposite their state and award an electoral vote to the losing statewide candidate. ME-2 and NE-2, show leads for former Vice President Joe Biden even though they are must win races for President Trump.
Siena College/New York Times tested the 2nd District of Maine, the state’s northern seat, (9/11-16; 440 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) and sees the Biden advantage to be 47-45%. The Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group surveyed NE -2 (9/14-16; 400 NE-2 likely voters; live interview) and posts an even larger 51-45% Biden advantage in that district. These are places to watch as the general election unfolds. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) is one of three Republican Senators who says she won’t vote for a Supreme Court nominee to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election. This decision may prove costly as conservatives may abandon her re-election campaign for not supporting President Trump’s promised move to name a replacement. As a benchmark before the announcement, Siena College/New York Times released their Maine survey (9/11-16; 663 ME likely voters; live interview) that posted state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) to a 44-40% lead over Sen. Collins.
The OnMessage polling firm, conducting their survey for the Sean Parnell campaign (9/2-3; 400 PA-17 likely voters), finds a close race developing in the Pittsburgh suburbs. The OnMessage results find Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) clinging to only a one-point lead, 45-44%, over Mr. Parnell, an author and Afghan War veteran. This race has not gotten a great deal of attention since President Trump called upon Mr. Parnell to enter the race at an early campaign rally well before the COVID shut down. This is one of the 30 districts President Trump carried in 2016 that a Democrat currently represents.
The Global Strategy Group again tested Virginia’s 5th District, one of the eight seats where partisan voters upended an incumbent, in this case freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R), during the nomination procedure. GSG’s latest survey, conducted for the 314 Action organization (9/10-14; 400 VA-5 likely voters; live interview) finds Republican Bob Good leading Democratic physician Cameron Webb by a slight 47-46% margin. Though the seat should be comfortably Republican, this appears another Virginia seat that is headed into the highly competitive realm.
Both party organizations are laying down media money in the markets that cover the 21st and 23rd Congressional Districts of Texas. The 21st features freshman Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) defending his seat against former gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (D) in the Austin/San Antonio/Hill Country area, while the 23rd stretches from the northwestern San Antonio suburbs all the way to El Paso, about a 550- mile journey.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has purchased $2.6 million in ad time for the TX-21/23 market as compared to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s $1.04 million. The NRCC also added another $3.5 million in the Dallas market to cover the 24th and 32nd CDs. The 24th is an open seat that features Republican former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R) opposite former Carrollton School Board Member Candace Valenzuela (D). In the Dallas County 32nd, Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) seeks a second term against Republican businesswoman Genevieve Collins. |
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