Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels is waging a strong Democratic primary challenge against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) in an election that will be decided tomorrow. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune announced its editorial board endorsement of Mr. Samuels and so did the city’s Mayor, Jacob Frey (D). In the last week, a Super PAC entitled “Make A Difference” sponsored a $350,000 television buy to support Mr. Samuels. This will be a race to watch tomorrow night.
Emerson College tested the upcoming Democratic paired incumbent primary between Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) and Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan). The survey (8/1-2; 1,000 NY-12 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview, text & interactive voice response system) finds Rep. Nadler, largely with the overwhelming support of men, leading Rep. Maloney 40-31%, with the third candidate, businessman and former congressional candidate Suraj Patel attracting 11% support. The New York congressional primary is scheduled for August 23rd.
The Volunteer State voters engaged in the country’s only Thursday primary, and the open 5th District (Rep. Jim Cooper-D retiring) was the evening’s key race. The crowded Republican primary winner was Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles. He defeated former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and retired National Guard General Kurt Winstead along with six others.
Redistricting transformed this seat into a Republican domain, so Mr. Ogles becomes a heavy favorite to defeat state Sen. Heidi Campbell (D-Nashville) in the general election. The three incumbents who faced competition, Reps. Charles Fleishmann (R-Chattanooga), David Kustoff (R-Germantown), and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) were all easily renominated. The Democratic Governor’s nomination is still undecided. With 98% of the vote counted, physician Jason Martin leads Memphis City Councilman J.B. Smiley, Jr. by only 1,468 votes. Gov. Bill Lee was unopposed in the Republican primary. He will be the prohibitive general election favorite over either Messrs. Martin or Smiley. Democratic polling firm Keating Research released a survey of Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, termed the “Western Slope Seat,” that features freshman Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) and former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D). The poll (released 8/2; 550 CO-3 likely general election voters) gives Rep. Boebert a 49-42% advantage over Mr. Frisch. The 3rd District was largely kept intact in redistricting, and rates as R+15 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization.
The death of Indiana five-term Republican Congresswoman Jackie Walorski (R-Elkhart) is leading to a confusion succession situation. Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) must call a special election to fill the unexpired portion of the late Representative’s term, and is expected to schedule that election concurrently with the regular general election on November 8th.
The nomination process, however, is another matter. Under Indiana vacancy succession procedure, the District chairman, in this case the 2nd Congressional District chairman, would name the party nominee. That individual, however, is Zach Potts, an aide to Rep. Walorski who was the reported driver of the vehicle in which all perished. Therefore, the local party members will first have to elect a new district chairman who will have the power to name the congressional candidate and likely next member of the House in a district that rates R+26 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Democratic chairman is likely to name environmental consultant Paul Steury, the party’s regular election nominee, as their party’s special election candidate. Last week the Carl Padalino campaign released a WPA Intelligence survey that suggested the former New York Republican gubernatorial nominee owns a wide 30-point lead over NY Republican Party chairman Nick Langworthy in the primary election battle to replace resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning). Now, the Langworthy campaign is citing a Zeplowski Research survey (8/1-2; 400 NY-23 likely special election voters) that finds the ballot test at only 39-37% in Mr. Padalino’s favor.
The race is getting testy between the two candidates as the contest for the safe western New York Republican district is drawing to a close. The New York congressional primary is scheduled for August 23rd. The eventual GOP winner advances to the general election against unopposed Democratic candidate Max Della Pia, a retired US Air Force officer and attorney. Venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican Senate primary on Tuesday night, and a new OnMessage survey already shows him within striking distance of Sen. Mark Kelly (D). The poll (8/1-2; 600 AZ likely general election voters) finds the Senator leading Mr. Masters, 49-44%.
We can expect the Arizona race to be one of the most heavily polled general election campaigns during the remaining time before the November 8th election. Arizona is a tight political state, and this race will go a long way toward determining which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) represents the most Democratic district in the nation that elects a Republican to the US House, and redistricting made the seat tilt even further away from the Congressman. The jungle primary saw him qualify for the general election, but with only 26% of the vote as he finished in second place.
A newly released David Binder Research poll (7/13-15; 600 CA-22 likely general election voters) finds state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) leading Rep. Valadao 43-35% as the general election campaign in California’s Central Valley is now fully underway. We can expect this race to close tight, but it is one of the best Democratic opportunities in the nation to convert a Republican seat. Indiana five-term Republican Congresswoman Jackie Walorski (R-Elkart) and three other people yesterday were all tragically killed in a car accident. The Congresswoman and her two aides were returning from an event in the district, and died when another vehicle crossed the median line and struck them head-on.
Ms. Walorski is the sixth House member to pass away in this session of Congress. Indiana state law will govern the succession procedure to replace the late Representative. Tuesday’s defeats of Michigan Reps. Peter Meijer (R-Grand Rapids) and Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township) in their respective Republican and Democratic primaries are the ninth and tenth House incumbents to already lose their seats in this election cycle. Five come from both parties. Five of the incumbent losses are redistricting related, two because of ethics or personal behavior problems, one for ideological reasons, and a pair on the Republican side, such as Rep. Meijer, for voting to impeach then-President Trump.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|