In what will be a Top Five Republican target race nationally, state Sen. Dan Hemmert (R-Orem) yesterday announced his congressional candidacy. If successful in the GOP primary, he will face freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City), the former Mayor of Salt Lake County.
Also in the race is former radio talk show host and software gaming developer Jay Mcfarland and former Utah Republican Party Communications Director Kathleen Anderson. Former Rep. Mia Love (R), who has not ruled out running again, previously said she would not seek a re-match with Rep. McAdams if Sen. Hemmert would seek the position. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced last night on The Rachel Maddow Show that he is withdrawing from the presidential race, saying that he understands he will not become the Democratic nominee. Mr. Inslee is the third candidate to leave the presidential race. Washington political sources say that Mr. Inslee will electronically announce that he will seek a third term as Governor later today.
International online pollster YouGov, again surveying for The Economist magazine, is back in the field testing the Democratic presidential contest. As in other polls, the YouGov study (8/17-20; 559 US likely Democratic primary voters), finds the top three finishers to be former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). These results, however, find Sanders slipping past Warren into second while most of the other surveys see the order reversed.
The totals project Mr. Biden with 22%, followed closely by Sanders’ 19%, and Warren’s 17%. California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are substantially behind with 8 and 7%, respectively. Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights conducted their semi-regular survey of the Arizona electorate (8/13-14; 600 AZ likely general election voters) and again finds a close contest between appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) but, this time, the lead has changed. The OH data finds Mr. Kelly leading Sen. McSally for the first time, 46-41%, in what promises to be one of the most competitive Senate elections in the 2020 cycle.
The aforementioned Emerson College poll (8/16-19; 1,000 likely CO registered voters) sees former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) strongly leading incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) if the ex-state chief executive and now former presidential candidate were to enter the 2020 statewide race. According to the Emerson findings, Mr. Hickenlooper would lead Sen. Gardner, 53-40%, obviously well beyond the margin of any polling error.
The same sample also returns poor numbers for President Trump. All five top Democrats would exceed majority support against the President, with former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg each leading Mr. Trump, 55-45%. A new Emerson College poll (8/16-19; 403 likely CO Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) topping the Democratic presidential field in the Centennial State. While Sen. Sanders leads, it is by the smallest of margins, just one point over former Vice President Joe Biden. The ballot test finds a 26-25-20-13% split among Sanders, Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), respectively. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg trails substantially, polling only at 5% just one point over New York City businessman Andrew Yang.
Gravis Marketing just surveyed the important Nevada Caucus prospective electorate (8/14-16; 382 likely NV Democratic caucus participants from a survey universe of 926 registered voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden developing a comfortable lead but with a low support level. The results find Mr. Biden commanding 25% preference followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 15%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posting 10%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) close behind him with 9 percent.
For the also-rans, billionaire Tom Steyer posted 6% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg 5%, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), businessman Andrew Yang, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio recorded either 3 or 2%. All others finished at 1% or below. The Nevada Caucus is third on the election calendar and will likely prove to be a more important nominating event than it has in previous elections. The upcoming September 12-13 Democratic presidential debate from Houston now has ten qualifiers. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro is the latest to earn a podium. The others are former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Cory Booker, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sens. Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke, in addition to Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren along with businessman Andrew Yang. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Gov. Jay Inslee, and billionaire Tom Steyer each have secured the necessary 130,000 donors, but still need to score 2% on at least one more designated poll in order to be included. The qualification deadline is August 28th.
Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Arvada), who announced his candidacy for Governor in 2017 only to withdraw shortly afterward and seek re-election to his House seat, announced yesterday that he will not run for Senate in 2020. Like so many others in the Democratic establishment, he then pledged his support for former Gov. John Hickenlooper and encouraged him to run for the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is seeking re-election. Currently, twelve active Democrats are vying for the party nomination.
Miami-Dade Firefighters local union president Omar Blanco has filed a 2020 congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, the prelude to him announcing his candidacy. Should he win the 26th District Republican nomination, he will face freshman Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Miami) in a seat the Democrats converted away from Republican hands in 2018. The presence of a Hispanic Republican union president as the GOP nominee will make this race one to watch.
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