Local St. Petersburg attorney Amanda Makki announced yesterday that she will return for a re-match in the Republican congressional primary, but this time the competition will be over an open seat. Incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg), who they opposed in 2020, is running for Governor. Last year, Ms. Makki lost the nomination to military veteran Ana Paulina Luna, 36-28%. The latter woman would then hold Rep. Crist to a 53-47% re-election victory in the general election, the closest margin of any winning Florida incumbent.
Without Rep. Crist in the race and the Republican legislature likely making the 13th District more favorable to a Republican candidate, this Tampa Bay area race will become a key national congressional campaign. Former Trump White House aide Karoline Leavitt (R) announced her congressional candidacy yesterday in New Hampshire’s 1st District, the seat that has defeated more incumbents nationwide than any other since 2004. With Republicans in control of the redistricting apparatus and a sense they will make the 1st District much more Republican, thus conceding District 2 to Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Concord), a spurt of candidate activity has already erupted. In addition to Ms. Leavitt, state Rep. Tim Baxter (R-Seabrook), Iraq War veteran Julian Acciard, and 2020 congressional candidate Gilead Towne have all announced their candidacies.
For his part, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) says he wants to seek re-election, though if the district becomes too Republican, he is exploring entering what could be an open Governor’s race. Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is a potential US Senate candidate. Five-term Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) said yesterday that he is confident “any Republican” would defeat Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) next year. This is a strong statement considering Illinois has been Democratic heavy throughout the past decade and one-half. Concluding his remarks, Rep. Davis said, in reference to running for Governor, “if I choose to make a race, I don’t get in it to lose.”
With Illinois losing a congressional seat, there is a good chance that Rep. Davis' 13th CD would be broken up or paired with another Republican member such as freshman Rep. Mary Miller (R-Oakland). It was believed the members attending the Oklahoma Republican Party convention over the weekend were going to censure their own GOP Senators, Jim Inhofe and James Lankford, because they voted in favor of recognizing President Biden’s electoral victory. When the vote was actually conducted, however, the move to officially censure the pair of Sooner State GOP Senators failed on a 93-122 count (43% favor; 57% oppose).
Sen. Lankford, on the ballot in 2022, has already drawn a GOP primary opponent in the person of pastor and Trump campaign supporter Jackson Lahmayer. Already announcing an endorsement for Mr. Lahmayer is former Oklahoma Republican Party chairman John Bennett. National Democratic leaders attempting to find a successor for retiring Land of Lincoln Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Moline) in a politically marginal congressional district were dealt a setback yesterday. Their top prospect, Rockford Mayor Tom McNamara (D), announced that he will not run for Congress next year. Redistricting will drastically change IL-17, a seat already having more boundary twists and turns than any Illinois rural CD. It is very difficult to predict the outcome of this open seat until we see how western Illinois is eventually configured.
The California Secretary of State is reporting that only 41 of the more than 120 individuals who petitioned to gain a ballot slot for the September 14th recall election actually qualified. Requirements include either paying a $4,000 filing fee or gathering 7,000 valid petition signatures from registered voters and submitting personal tax returns. The official candidate list will be verified and published tomorrow. In the 2003 recall election that elected Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) Governor, 135 individuals were on the ballot.
Massachusetts Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has been coy about whether or not he will run for a third term next year, but we now have a strong clue that he is taking concrete action to construct a campaign. Though he has done little to raise much money for another political bid, the Baker campaign has now scheduled a major fundraising event for August 20th, thus suggesting that he will again be on the ballot next year.
For the Democrats, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Boston), former state Senator Ben Downing, and Harvard University professor Danielle Allen are announced gubernatorial candidates. Ex-state Representative and 2018 Republican US Senate nominee Geoff Diehl has announced for the GOP nomination. Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) has scheduled an announcement for tomorrow, at which he will almost certainly declare his US Senate candidacy. In the Democratic primary, he will face state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, state Senator Chris Larson (D-Milwaukee), Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, and Milwaukee Bucks basketball club senior executive and former Obama White House aide Alex Lasry to this point in the Democratic primary. It remains unclear if Sen. Ron Johnson (R) will seek re-election. Regardless of the incumbent’s eventual political decision, the Wisconsin Senate race will feature a competitive primary and general election cycle.
Angel Lara (D), a former staff aide to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), joined the congressional primary to face incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno). In the jungle primary race are former state Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D), former Fresno City Councilman and ex-New Mexico political candidate Chris Mathys (R), and Delano Mayor Bryan Osorio (D). According to the second quarter campaign financial disclosure lists, none of the challengers are showing raising much money. All are well under Mr. Mathys’ self-funding total of $200,000.
Former Rep. T.J. Cox (D) maintains he will make a final decision about running in 2022 once the new district lines are adopted. In the meantime, however, Mr. Cox has converted his campaign apparatus into a political action committee, suggesting he will not become a candidate. The Texas double-Republican special election runoff between Susan Wright, widow of the late Rep. Ron Wright (R-Arlington), and state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie) will be held on July 27th, and the former is viewed as the favorite. Rep. Ellzey, however, is the superior fundraiser.
According to the campaign filings, Mr. Ellzey has raised $1.74 million for the federal campaign with over $484,000 in the bank through the pre-special election disclosure period ending July 7th. Ms. Wright has raised a considerably smaller $740,000 sum with just over $164,000 in her campaign account in early July. Ms. Wright is benefiting from an $835,000 expenditure from the Club for Growth. The Elect Principled Veterans Fund has spent $155,000 to aid Mr. Ellzey. Mr. Ellzey was the late Rep. Wright’s original challenger, losing to him by a 52-48% count in the 2018 Republican runoff. He was then elected to the state House in 2020. Though Ms. Wright led the original primary election, an Ellzey upset is a realistic possibility. |
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