Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller yesterday announced that he will seek re-election next year and not challenge Gov. Greg Abbott in the Republican primary. In the nomination race against Gov. Abbott, however, are former state Senator Don Huffines and potentially former Texas Republican Party chairman and ex-Florida Congressman Allen West.
Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (D), running for a fifth four-year term, appears to have gone down to defeat in yesterday’s Democratic primary, as he trails self-described socialist India Walton by seven percentage points with still 50 precincts outstanding. In Rochester, incumbent Lovely Warren lost the Democratic nomination to at-large City Councilman Malik Evans by a landslide 2:1 margin.
Yesterday was election day in New York City, but the mayoral primary is a long way from being officially decided. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, the favorite going into the Democratic primary, is the ten-point leader coming from the first partial count, but now must endure rounds of Ranked-Choice Vote counting and absentee ballots still being received in order to determine the primary winner. Absentee ballots can still arrive all the way through June 29th. Under the New York counting system, it is likely a winner won’t be officially determined until approximately July 15th.
If Mr. Adams survives the ranked-choice counts and reaches majority support, he will face Republican Curtis Sliwa in the general election. Mr. Sliwa, the founder of the 1970s organization, the Guardian Angels, easily won the Republican primary. He will have little chance, however, in the general election. The legislation to nationalize America’s voting system, known as the “For the People Act,” cannot advance to a Senate floor vote at least in the short term. On a party-line 50-50 vote, with all Democrats voting to invoke cloture and all Republicans voting against, the bill was not allowed to proceed effectively killing it for the present time. We could see variations of it come up again in future legislative days, but it will take a major change to obtain 60 votes necessary to invoke cloture in order to proceed to a final floor vote.
Over the past few weeks, Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) was making news in deciding whether she would run statewide either for Senate or Governor, and now it appears she may have a fight on her hands to keep the position she currently holds.
Yesterday, three GOP US Representatives, Neil Dunn (R-Panama City), Brian Mast (R-Palm City), and Greg Steube (R-Sarasota), jointly endorsed Army Bronze Star recipient Cory Mills (R) who recently announced his challenge to Rep. Murphy. The move suggests that legislators will target the 7th District in the redistricting process for a return to the Republican column. With neighboring Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) running for Governor and a new seat likely headed for the Orlando area, the GOP map drawers would have the opportunity of making Rep. Murphy’s 7th District more Republican. Yesterday, it was learned that President Biden is going to appoint former US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-NM) to a position in the US Department of Agriculture. Ms. Torres Small accepting the post will likely take her away from attempting to reclaim the congressional seat she lost in November to freshman Rep. Yvette Harrell (R-Alamogordo) after serving one term.
New Mexico’s 2nd District is the state’s southern seat where the oil and gas industry is a key employer. Right of center outside organizations and Ms. Harrell effectively used the energy issue to oust Rep. Torres Small, 54-46%, and was one of the seats that fell to the GOP after then-candidate Joe Biden confirmed in the second presidential debate that his long-term goal was to eliminate the fossil fuel industry. State Auditor Jim Zeigler (R), who had announced a 2018 Republican primary challenge to Gov. Kay Ivey but backed away before the candidate filing deadline, announced yesterday that he is forming a 2022 gubernatorial exploratory committee. Mr. Zeigler said that if he can determine adequate financial backing exists for an intra-party challenge to the Governor, he will run, but chances are he will again find it difficult to mount enthusiasm among Republican donors and primary voters to unseat their current incumbent.
A New Jersey gubernatorial poll was released yesterday testing the new Governor’s race between incumbent Phil Murphy (D) and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R). Their respective partisan electorates nominated both in the June 8th primary election.
According to the Fairleigh Dickinson University survey conducted soon after the primary (6/9-16; 803 NJ likely general election voters; live interview), Gov. Murphy enjoys a 48-33% ballot test advantage. The Governor’s job approval rating stands at 50%, which is an eight-point improvement from his score the last time FDU asked the favorability question in relation to the Garden State Governor, which occurred in their February 2020 study. Gov. Kate Brown (D) is ineligible to seek a third term next year, but the Democratic side has been surprisingly quiet in terms of who might emerge to succeed her. Over the weekend, the first official Democratic contender entered the gubernatorial race, but others are soon expected to follow. Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla became the first Democratic candidate to formally announce. Oregon is a solidly blue political state meaning that the eventual Democratic nominee will be deemed at least the early favorite to keep the Governor’s office under party control.
Former President Donald Trump over the weekend made public his endorsement of Republican Kelly Tshibaka, the former Alaska Administration Commissioner. Ms. Tshibaka already leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in the two most recent 2022 primary surveys with significant percentage margins. Mr. Trump has been sparring with Sen. Murkowski since he left office and again noted that she voted to impeach him over the January 6th Capitol insurrection. His statement says Sen. Murkowski is “bad for Alaska.”
This race has a long time to develop since the Alaska primary isn’t until August of 2022. With the state’s new top four jungle primary procedure, there is little doubt that both Ms. Tshibaka and Sen. Murkowski will advance into the general election. Therefore, we can expect the Alaska race to be on the front burner of political discussion all the way through the November 2nd general election. |
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