Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel defied most polling and the political prognosticators last night in the northern Atlanta suburbs, defeating Democratic filmmaker and former congressional aide Jon Ossoff, 52-48%, in a race that saw almost 260,000 people cast their ballots. The total turnout exceeded the last regular mid-term participation rate here by a whopping 24%. The big story was of course the Ossoff campaign’s spending, which will likely total in the neighborhood of $33 million when the final accounting is published, an all-time record for a congressional campaign. The aggregate spending for all committees participating in this contest will likely exceed $50 million. In the end, voters in a Republican district selected the Republican candidate, and sent the Democrats to a crushing defeat in a race where they raised expectations to an unrealistic level. Money poured in from across the country, but particularly from the Democratic donor base in New York, California, and Massachusetts.
Having so much money may have ironically done Ossoff some damage. It allowed Handel and the Republican apparatus to link the 30-year old first-time candidate to the national political left, referencing all the money coming in from liberal locales especially when relatively little came from Georgia, and sending his campaign into an “overkill” mode. Spending so much on so few – his spending was at least ten times the level normally seen for a race of this type – can have the effect of driving some swing voters away, and that may well have happened here. But, with money coming into the Ossoff campaign like it was shot from a fire hose, the Democrat’s managers would have a difficult time explaining to donors why they didn’t use all of their resources if they chose to bank some of the money or sending some to other candidates or entities, such as Archie Parnell who was simultaneously running in a special election in neighboring South Carolina. Much will be written about this race, but the end result could not have turned out worse for national Democrats. Going “all-in” on this particular special election, the Democratic national leadership now sustains a major black eye and will be subject to great internal criticism for their targeting decisions, especially when Mr. Parnell, in a race the party brain trust conceded from the onset, actually performed better than the anointed Ossoff. Former Congressman Brad Ashford (D-NE), who defeated Rep. Lee Terry (R-Omaha) in 2014 but lost to current Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) last November, is returning next year for a re-match. Months ago, Mr. Ashford and his wife, Ann Ferlic Ashford, publicly stated that one of them would likely become a 2018 congressional candidate. Yesterday, the ex-Representative officially declared his candidacy. The 2nd District seat, which comprises the Omaha metropolitan area, is politically marginal so Bacon-Ashford II will be a race to watch.
Voters in north Georgia and central South Carolina vote today to fill two more vacant US House seats. In Georgia, the most expensive congressional campaign in history will be decided after a long special election cycle. Vying to replace former Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell), now US Health & Human Services Secretary, are Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel. The two remain in a nip and tuck battle. The latest polls all find the race as a virtual dead heat. Turnout is expected to be very high, with already more than 140,000 votes cast through the early voting process.
In South Carolina, voters are deciding between former state Rep. Ralph Norman (R) and ex-Wall Street executive Archie Parnell (D) in a race to replace Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill), who left the House to become Director of the Office of Management & Budget. Since SC-5 is a reliable Republican seat, Mr. Norman is expected to score a mid-50s victory. In addition to the Republican special election convention being organized to advance one officially endorsed candidate into the primary election – former state Rep. Chris Herrod won last Saturday’s vote – Democrats held a companion nominating convention and actually chose their general election candidate. Physician Kathryn Allen (D), who was already challenging resigning Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy), won the convention vote.
Since no Democrats qualified for the ballot via the signature petition process, Ms. Allen becomes the Democratic nominee and qualifies for the November 7th general election. Because she had already raised more than $500,000 for her purported race against Mr. Chaffetz, the new nominee will now be able to use the funds for the special general election. While having the funds to wage a credible campaign, Ms. Allen will still be the decided underdog against whoever wins the Republican primary on August 15th, however. The three GOP contenders are Mr. Herrod, Provo Mayor John Curtis, and businessman Tanner Ainge. The latter two qualified for the primary ballot through the onerous petition process. Sophomore New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-Toms River), who Democrats are targeting because he was instrumental in constructing an agreement to advance the GOP healthcare legislation, has drawn a general election opponent. Former Obama National Security Council member Andrew Kim (D) announced his candidacy yesterday. The 3rd District is one Democrats often look at because the voters here tend to vote for their nominee in some statewide races. The party candidates have managed to convert it only one time at the congressional level since the late 1970s, however, albeit in different configuration. Still, this is the type of district Democrats will have to actively challenge if they are to have any chance of competing for the majority in 2018.
Former state Senator and 2006 failed gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett (R) announced his statewide candidacy for Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) open seat. Eleven years ago, Mr. Barnett lost to then-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) by a landslide 58-40% result.
The 2018 Kansas Republican primary is expected to draw major contenders. Already in the contest are Secretary of State Kris Kobach, energy businessman and former congressional candidate Wink Hartman, and former state Rep. Ed O’Malley. Expected to join is Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer and possibly Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Mr. Barnett is trying to separate himself from the field by hitting Gov. Brownback for his state budget policies, thus trying to capture moderate Republicans and win a split vote among multiple candidates. Kansas does not use a run-off nomination system, so obtaining a primary plurality is sufficient for victory. Gov. Brownback is ineligible to seek a third term. Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) had been on the list as a potential 2018 opponent for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), but was never viewed as a likely prospect to actually enter the race. Yesterday, Ms. Kleefisch confirmed that she will not be a Senate candidate, planning instead to re-join Gov. Scott Walker (R) as his statewide running mate as the two seek a third term in office. While several Republicans are considering the Senate race, none have yet to officially announce their candidacy.
Special election convention delegates gathered on Saturday to advance one of eleven candidates to the special August 15th primary to replace resigning Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy). Former state Rep. Chris Herrod, who managed Ted Cruz’s Utah presidential campaign – a state that proved to be the Texas’ Senator’s strongest – won the delegate vote on the fifth round with 55% support. Mr. Herrod advances to the special primary where he faces Provo Mayor John Curtis and businessman Tanner Ainge, who both qualified via the petition signature process. Since this seat is one of the most conservative in the nation, it is a virtual certainty that the Republican primary winner will replace Mr. Chaffetz as the 3rd District Representative in the November 7th special general election.
Mr. Herrod won a special election and appointment process for the state House in 2007, ironically over Mr. Curtis, when an incumbent vacated mid-term to accept a state appointment. He would then challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch in the 2012 nominating convention, losing badly. He attempted a comeback against a Republican state Senator in 2016, but lost that campaign, as well. Mr. Ainge is the son of Boston Celtics general manager and former Brigham Young University basketball star Danny Ainge. Both he and Mr. Curtis were successful in obtaining 7,000 valid 3rd District registered Republican signatures to qualify for the special primary ballot, thus by-passing the party endorsement event. Harper Polling released the first Virginia 2017 post-primary general election gubernatorial survey, and the results are surprising considering how last week’s voting ended. According to HP (6/14-16; 500 VA likely general election voters), Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie are tied at 46% support preference apiece. This, coming from a primary vote that saw Northam exceed expectations while Gillespie under-performed most pre-election predictions. The Harper Polling executives also said that the 8% Undecided respondents were breaking Gillespie’s way on secondary questions, 19-7%.
Additionally, the tied ballot test was surprising because Northam not only had the better primary performance, but the same respondents rated him higher than Gillespie. In terms of their respective personal favorability index scores, Northam recorded a 52:31% positive ratio, while Gillespie’s tallied 45:38%. Voters in north Georgia and central South Carolina will choose new Representatives tomorrow, as the long-involved special election season draws to a close. In Georgia, where the special election has set an all-time spending record for a congressional campaign – the participants and outside group expenditures will top $40 million – Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel remain in a nip and tuck battle to the end. The latest poll, from Opinion Savvy (6/16; 537 GA-6 likely voters, or those voting early) finds Ossoff and Handel virtually tied at 49+% apiece. Only two more polling respondents chose Ossoff over Handel. Early voting has already recorded well over 100,000 ballots, meaning there is a good chance total turnout exceeds the 194,000 people who participated in the jungle primary election.
In South Carolina, former state Rep. Ralph Norman (R) and ex-Wall Street executive Archie Parnell (D) do battle for what is an open GOP congressional district. Mr. Norman is a heavy favorite to replace former Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill), who left the House to become Director of the Office of Management & Budget. |
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