The Alaska Survey Research firm, headed by long time local pollster Ivan Moore, released their new special election US House study featuring 48 candidates. The survey (5/6-9; 605 AK-AL likely special election voters; online) finds former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential Republican nominee Sarah Palin leading the huge field with 19%, followed closely by officially endorsed Republican Party candidate Nick Begich, III at 16%, with Independent and former 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee Al Gross and North Pole City Councilman Santa Claus (the former Thomas O’Connor) capturing the third and fourth qualifying positions with 13 and 6%, respectively.
Under the new Alaska election law, the top four finishers from the jungle primary, in this case scheduled for June 11th, will advance to the August 16th special general election. If no one receives majority support among the finishing four in the succeeding vote, the Ranked Choice Voting System takes effect. It is here where Ms. Palin may find trouble. Under this configuration, ASR projects that Mr. Claus would be first eliminated, then Ms Palin in the next round. A Begich-Gross final round would favor Mr. Begich at 53-47%. Nick Begich, III is the grandson of former US Rep. Nick Begich (D), who died in a plane crash before the 1972 election. His uncle is former US Sen. Mark Begich (D). Nick Begich, III, however, is a Republican. ASR tested four different iterations with four separate fourth place contenders, and in each scenario Mr. Begich ultimately wins the seat. Democratic pollster Change Research, polling for the left of center 314 Action group (5/6-10; 564 NE-2 general election voters of whom 94% say are definite or probable voters; online) finds Omaha Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas leading US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), 42-39%, in a survey conducted just before the Nebraska primary.
The poll skews slightly left meaning that the race is likely no worse that tied from Rep. Bacon’s perspective. Approximately 25,000 more people voted in the NE-2 Republican primary than Democratic suggesting the enthusiasm level favors the GOP. The seat became three points more Republican in redistricting. Despite this particular poll result, Rep. Bacon is still favored for re-election. A Florida state judge whom Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed disqualified the new Florida congressional map ruling that the elimination of Rep. Al Lawson’s (D-Tallahassee) majority minority District 5 violates Florida’s Fair Districts Act. The state will clearly appeal, but the map’s fate, the Republicans’ best in the country, now is suspended in political limbo.
A Cygnal group poll for the Alabama Daily News and Gray Television (5/6-7; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) two days ago covered the Alabama Senate race confirming that Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) is gaining on his two GOP opponents. Yesterday, Cygnal released its data on the state’s gubernatorial campaign. While Gov. Kay Ivey (R) still holds a comfortable lead, she has dropped to 40% support according to this survey.
Real Estate developer Tim James, son of former Governor Fob James, is second with 18%, and former US Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard is a close third with 15%. Three more candidates divide 14% of the vote, while the remainder is recorded as undecided/won’t say. There is little doubt that Gov. Ivey will finish first, but the question remains whether she can attain the 50% threshold to avoid being forced into a secondary runoff election. The Alabama primary is May 24th. If a runoff becomes necessary, that election would occur on June 21st. The media is leading with the point that former President Donald Trump’s Nebraska gubernatorial candidate, rancher and company CEO Chuck Herbster, lost his primary battle last night to rancher and University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen. The fact that eight women, including a state Senator, accused Mr. Herbster of sexual harassment long after the Trump endorsement was announced likely was the more critical factor in how the race ended.
For his part, Mr. Pillen had the support of term-limited Gov. Pete Ricketts, former US Congressman and ex-University of Nebraska championship head football coach Tom Osborne, former Gov. Kay Orr, the Nebraska Farm Bureau, and Americans for Prosperity, thus demonstrating a wide range of conservative and institutional backers. Mr. Pillen defeated Mr. Herbster and Omaha state Sen. Brett Lindstrom in a close 33-30-26% result to claim the Republican nomination. He will be a heavy favorite in November against the new Democratic nominee, Bellevue state Sen. Carol Blood. Republican turnout was up approximately 53% when compared with the 2018 midterm election. Democrats also increased their participation rate but only in the 6% range. In the first of potentially six incumbent paired contests of the 2022 post-redistricting election cycle, US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) scored a double-digit win over fellow Congressman David McKinley (R-Wheeling) last night. West Virginia lost one of its three seats in reapportionment, hence the reason for the two Republicans facing each other.
All of Rep. McKinley’s current district was contained in the new 2nd, but only half of Mr. Mooney’s territory. Former President Donald Trump backed Rep. Mooney after McKinley backed the Biden infrastructure package, which appeared to even the advantages. With polling correctly projecting a Mooney win, the four-term West Virginia Congressman who previously served in the Maryland state Senate recorded a convincing 54-36% victory. Another released survey confirms that Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) is moving back into contention and very much alive to capture one of the two runoff slots that the May 24th primary will yield. A Cygnal group poll for the Alabama Daily News and Gray Television (5/6-7; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) agrees that former Business Council of Alabama president and CEO Katie Britt leads the race while Rep. Brooks and former “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant are in a tight battle for the second runoff position. In this study, Ms. Britt holds a 32-23-21% lead over Rep. Brooks and Mr. Durant.
Two new surveys find the Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary turning into a three-way race within the last week prior to the May 17th primary election. Pennsylvania has no runoff system, so whoever has the most votes next Tuesday, regardless of percentage attained, will become the party nominee.
The Trafalgar Group (5/6-8; 1,080 PA likely Republican primary voters; culled from a large sample through live interview; interactive voice response system, email and text) finds television Dr. Mehmet Oz leading the candidate field with newcomer Kathy Barnette, an Army veteran and 2020 congressional nominee, placing second ahead of former hedge fund CEO David McCormick. The respondents split 24.5 - 23.2 - 21.6%. Insider Advantage, polling for Fox29 (released 5/10; 750 PA likely GOP primary voters) produced similar numbers: Oz 22.5%; Barnette 20.9%; and McCormick 18.5%. These polls suggest that any of the top three contenders can still win the nomination. The Republican standard bearer will likely face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), who has a large polling lead over US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) in all published surveys. Both party endorsed candidates easily won their respective congressional nominations in the vacant 1st District. Norfolk state Sen. Mike Flood captured the Republican nomination with 73%, and Lincoln state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks became her party’s nominee with an 87% score. The two will square off in a June 28th special election to fill the unexpired portion of the current term. Former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln) resigned his seat at the end of March after being convicted for campaign finance violations in a California court. Regardless of how the special ends, both Sens. Flood and Pansing Brooks will face each other in the regular general election.
US Reps. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) and Adrian Smith (R-Gering) were easily re-nominated last night in their respective primary elections. Both posted over 75% of the vote. Mr. Bacon, in a competitive 2nd District will now face Omaha state Senator Tony Vargas, while Rep. Smith drew farmer David Else as his general election opponent in the expansive 3rd CD. The NE-3 seat stretches the width of Nebraska from the Wyoming border on the west all the way to the Iowa state line in the east.
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