Survey USA (5/16-19; 530 WA likely voters) tested the August 4th jungle primary in the state of Washington and found Gov. Jay Inslee (D) easily ahead of all potential opponents in his quest for a third term. None of his potential opponents have developed much in the way of statewide name identification, thus leading to Gov. Inslee developing leads of between 22 and 29 points against each of four general election possibilities.
The Democratic establishment is pushing businesswoman Theresa Greenfield as their candidate against Sen. Joni Ernst (R), but businessman Eddie Mauro, who has already spent over $4 million of his own money to promote his campaign, launched yet another stinging negative television attack against her this week.
To counter, the Greenfield campaign is bringing out the big names to help neutralize her primary opponent. Ms. Greenfield’s new campaign ad features former presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg, while also highlighting Iowa US Reps. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) and David Loebsack’s (D-Iowa City) support. Ms. Greenfield is still favored to win the party nomination, but Mr. Mauro is making things interesting. The American Future Fund organization sponsored a poll of Iowa’s 4th District Republican primary and found challenger Randy Feenstra now eclipsing Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron) in their GOP nomination battle that will be settled on June 2nd.
Mr. Feenstra, a state Senator and former chairman of the Senate Ways & Means Committee, has been steadily moving upward in polling for the past several weeks. Now, the AFF’s Public Opinion Strategies survey (5/16-18; 500 IA-4 likely Republican primary voters) sees Feenstra topping the incumbent, 41-39%. Additionally, Sen. Feenstra had a huge 16:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Rep. King at the close of the 2nd quarter financial reporting period. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) just received two impressive Democratic insider endorsements in his re-match with progressive left Democratic nominee Kara Eastman. Bob Krist, the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, and former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director Barry Rubin both publicly endorsed Rep. Bacon yesterday. The 2018 contest saw Mr. Bacon defeating Ms. Eastman, 51-49%, and the 2020 version is also expected to be competitive.
Everyday, we see more legislative and judicial action surrounding voting procedures, mostly in response to the COVID-19 virus. In Missouri, a state court’s ruling against expanding absentee mail voting for the upcoming primary election will now be heard by the state Supreme Court.
While the Coronavirus precautions are the reason the lawsuits began, the proponents are invariably trying to take the changes further, wanting them to apply to this year’s general election and likely beyond. The Missouri primary is not until August 4th, but we can still expect a quick ruling coming from the high court since election officials obviously need lead time to send the absentee ballot application forms prior to the actual primary election date. Former Vice President Joe Biden registered a rather uninspiring performance in the Oregon presidential primary last night, scoring a 68% win but against an entire field of candidates who long ago exited the race. All other Democratic incumbents running in the same type of low competition elections all recorded over 81% of the primary vote. Whether Mr. Biden’s performance suggests that he still has not convinced a large share of the Sanders-Warren coalition to support his candidacy remains to be seen.
In the open 2nd District with Rep. Greg Walden (R-Hood River) retiring from the lone Republican CD in the state, which encompasses the entire eastern sector, is open for the first time since 1998. Defeating 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Knute Buehler is former state Senator Cliff Bentz, who ran well to the former man’s right. The primary was a crowded affair with 11 candidates on the ballot. Mr. Bentz is now the prohibitive favorite to win here in November. The only other even slightly competitive primary occurred in the Salem anchored 5th District where veteran incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) was re-nominated over local Mayor Mark Gamba with 70% of the vote. Rep. Schrader will now have an easy general election run. One of the bigger upset victories coming in 2018 election was Democrat Joe Cunningham (D-Charleston) converting the open Palmetto State 1st District after then-Representative and former Governor Mark Sanford lost re-nomination in the Republican primary. Now, the eastern South Carolina district becomes a top tier challenge race for the GOP.
It appears the party has two capable challenger candidates, one of who will be competing in the general election against Rep. Cunningham after the June 9th primary. Both test at parity with the Congressman according to a survey from First Tuesday Strategies (5/15-18; 500 SC-1 likely general election voters). If Mt. Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing were the Republican nominee, she would lead Rep. Cunningham, 45-43%. Should state Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Daniel Island) win the party nomination, she would edge the Congressman by an almost identical 45-44% split. It appears not much has changed since soon after the March 3rd Alabama statewide primary. Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville finished ahead of former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions in the Republican primary, and immediate post-election polling reported that Mr. Tuberville was opening a large lead. Despite the time lag, such still appears to be the case.
The Cygnal polling firm conducted their survey of 607 likely Republican runoff voters over the May 7-10 period and found Mr. Tuberville expanding his lead all the way to 55-32%. At this point, the longer runoff election period – originally the secondary vote was scheduled for March 31 but was moved all the way to July 14th – has not helped the former incumbent. The runoff winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November. The aforementioned OH Predictive Insights Arizona survey (see Arizona in the Presidential section above) finds appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) dropping behind retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) by a double-digit margin for the first time. The ballot test yields a 51-38% Kelly advantage. As what plagued her in the 2018 Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema (D), population dominant Maricopa County is performing well above the norm for a Democratic candidate.
Regular Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting some distance between he and President Trump, 50-43%, in what is a must-win state for the Republican incumbent. The poll itself is not yet in the public domain, therefore making it difficult to analyze the nuances.
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