Soon after the May 8th Republican primary, WPA Intelligence released data that posted Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) to a 46-44% slight lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D), as we previously reported in the BIPAC Rundown. Yesterday, Sen. Manchin released his own poll that provides a much different perspective of the impending general election. According to the Senator’s internal Global Strategy Group survey (5/13-16; 600 WV likely voters), he leads Mr. Morrisey, 50-42%. But, the totals are a bit surprising when seeing Sen. Manchin receive support from only 70% of Democrats, but then picking up 29% of Republicans. While the Democratic support number appears low, the Republican defection figure seems high.
--Jim Ellis Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D), who appears to be the prohibitive favorite to replace Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) in the US House (she is running for the Senate), announced that he will resign his current position on May 29th. Under Arizona election law, a sitting public official running for another office must resign the current position in order to appear on the ballot for the subsequent office. The move means Phoenix will soon see a councilmember ascend to the Mayor’s position on an interim basis followed by a special election. The winner will then serve the balance of the term.
--Jim Ellis An early May Merriman River Group survey was just released (5/3-5; 707 HI likely Democratic primary voters), and while this data still finds US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) leading incumbent Gov. David Ige (D) for the August 11th Democratic primary election, the margin is much closer. According to Merriman, Rep. Hanabusa’s lead is 37-31%. In March, a Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategies survey found her substantially outpacing the Governor, 47-27%. Back in 2014, then-state Sen. Ige blasted Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) out of office with a 66-31% Democratic primary win. Rep. Hanabusa hopes to continue the Democratic voter streak of denying re-nomination to their incumbent Governors.
--Jim Ellis A breaking JMC Analytics & Polling survey of the Texas Senate race (5/19-21; 575 TX likely voters) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 47-40%, as the two continue their general election campaign. The results, while still close, are a slight improvement for Sen. Cruz from the April Quinnipiac University poll that found him leading Mr. O’Rourke only 47-44%. Both Sen. Cruz and Rep. O’Rourke won their respective Republican and Democratic primaries back on March 6th.
--Jim Ellis Last week we reported that former Montgomery County Councilwoman Valerie Ervin (D), who was Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz’s running mate until the latter individual’s untimely death, had decided to replace him in the Democratic primary race. Under Maryland election law, the named Lt. Governor running mate in such a situation can ascend to the Governor’s position, officially withdraw the ticket, or name another individual to replace the deceased candidate.
This week, state authorities informed Ms. Ervin that while she can now run for Governor in Mr. Kamenetz’s place, her name will not appear on the ballot because it is too late to reverse the printing. Therefore, Ms. Ervin will have to convince her voters to continue to vote for the late Mr. Kamenetz in order for the tallies to count for her. Obviously, this procedure lessens her nomination chances. She faces Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker, former NAACP president Ben Jealous, and state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County) in the June 26th party primary. The winner opposes Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the fall. --Jim Ellis After his defeat in the West Virginia US Senate Republican primary on May 8th, former energy company CEO and convicted felon Don Blankenship is still attempting to thwart Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey’s run against Sen. Joe Manchin (D). Informed he cannot enter the general election as an Independent because he participated in one of the party primaries, Mr. Blankenship now says he will file a lawsuit challenging the Mountain State “sore loser law.” Many states have such a law, and many times they have been challenged…to no avail. The chances of Mr. Blankenship getting the West Virginia law overturned are slim.
--Jim Ellis Voters will finalize the Texas nomination process today, as the congressional candidates advancing to the general election in a dozen significant run-off situations will be determined. The simultaneous Democratic and Republican run-offs are occurring in the open 6th District (Rep. Joe Barton; R-Ennis), the 21st District (Rep. Lamar Smith; R-San Antonio) and open 27th (Resigned Rep. Blake Farenthold; R-Corpus Christi). Republicans are voting in open TX-2 (Rep. Ted Poe; R-Atascocita) and open TX-5 (Rep. Jeb Hensarling; R-Dallas). Democrats will select a nominee against Reps. John Culberson (R-Houston), Will Hurd (R-San Antonio), John Carter (R-Round Rock), and Pete Sessions (R-Dallas).
--Jim Ellis A new Selzer & Company survey for the Des Moines Register newspaper and Mediacom cable television provider (5/13-15; 501 IA likely voters) again tested the Iowa Democratic gubernatorial primary as the June 5th nomination vote quickly approaches.
Fred Hubbell, a retired businessman who has been spending heavily on media advertising, leads the Democratic pack of candidates with 31% followed by state Sen. Nate Boulton (D-Des Moines) with 20%, and nurses’ union leader Cathy Glasson posting 13 percent. Three other candidates record support numbers only in single digits. If no candidate exceeds 35% support in the June 5th vote, a state convention will be called to choose a nominee. The eventual winner faces Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) who stands for her first election. She ascended to the Governorship when incumbent Terry Branstad (R) became US Ambassador to China. --Jim Ellis Businessman Ned Lamont, the founder of Campus Televideo, a company that provides video and data services to colleges and universities, easily won the official Democratic primary endorsement at the state party convention this weekend. Mr. Lamont’s victory was so complete that his top challenger, Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim did not even secure enough support to qualify for the primary ballot. He pledges to force an August 14th primary through petition, however. Mr. Ganim was originally elected Mayor in 1991 and served until 2003 when he resigned after being convicted of 16 federal crimes including bribery and extortion. He would serve seven years in federal prison, but returned to Bridgeport only to be re-elected Mayor in 2015. It appears that Mr. Ganim will stand little chance against Mr. Lamont in a Democratic primary, if the race gets that far.
This is Mr. Lamont’s second run for Governor. He lost the Democratic nomination to current Gov. Dan Malloy in 2010. Four years earlier, he denied re-nomination to Sen. Joe Lieberman, but lost the general election when the Senator obtained a ballot position as an Independent. The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial general election looks to be competitive. --Jim Ellis |
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