Rep. David Loebsack’s (D-Iowa City) surprising retirement announcement has changed the southeastern Iowa political equation. Thus, no one has immediately come forward to run for the House. Yesterday, however, state Sen. Kevin Kinney (D-Oxford) confirmed that he is considering entering what is now an open seat race. Same for Iowa City local business owner Veronica Tessler (D) who has already filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission.
The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored here, but we can expect crowded and competitive primaries in both parties. Former state Senator Eric Mansfield (D-Cape Fear), a physician, announced that he is forming a US Senate exploratory committee as a prelude to entering the 2020 campaign. Dr. Mansfield served one term in the NC Senate, risking his seat in 2012 to run for Lt. Governor. He failed to secure the statewide Democratic nomination.
Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Erica Smith (D-Gaston) and Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller. The winner will challenge first-term incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R). So far, North Carolina candidate recruitment has disappointed Democratic Party leaders since no statewide figure has come forward to enter the race. The May 21st Democratic gubernatorial primary is fast approaching, and former state Auditor Adam Edelen just released his campaign’s Anzalone Liszt Grove Research survey (released 4/18; 500 KY likely Democratic primary voters). It’s rather surprising that a candidate would release a poll showing him badly trailing the leader and only barely ahead of the third place contender, but that’s what Mr. Edelen has done. The move is designed to show momentum, but it is actually state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Rock) who has gained the most since the last public poll was released in mid-February.
According to the ALG poll, Attorney General Andy Beshear, son of former Governor Steve Beshear, leads the field with 43% of the vote. Mr. Edelen is second with 23%, and Mr. Adkins follows closely with 22%. It is clear that AG Beshear is the man to beat and even his opponent’s data suggests that his primary lead may be too much for any of his challengers to overcome. The winner will do battle with Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in what will be a competitive 2019 general election. While the Democratic field to challenge Sen. Cory Gardner (R) appears weak after former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) decided to run for President instead of Senate, two potentially stronger individuals declared their candidacies yesterday.
Former Obama Administration diplomat Dan Baer, who in 2018 began running for what appeared to be an open 7th District congressional office when incumbent Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) declared for Governor but then withdrew when the Congressman decided to seek re-election, is one of the new candidates. Immediately after the Baer announcement, former US Attorney John Walsh also joined the fray. Until these two men entered the race, the leading candidates appeared to be former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who has lost races for both the US House and Senate, and ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston who placed third in last year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Regardless of who becomes the Democratic nominee, this Senate race will be competitive throughout the campaign cycle. As promised, state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), the son of former Governor Tom Kean, Sr. and a former US House and Senate candidate, formerly announced his campaign for the 7th Congressional District. Looking like a consensus Republican candidate, Sen. Kean will very likely face freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) in the general election.
Mr. Kean in the Republicans top choice to run here, and the nature of this CD suggests we will again see a highly competitive battle next year. Former Cuomo Administration economic advisor Lindsey Boylan, who said earlier in the year she is considering challenging House Judiciary chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan) in the 2020 Democratic primary, yesterday took a step closer to launching her campaign. Ms. Boylan filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, which is the prelude to becoming an official candidate.
It is unclear how much of a threat Ms. Boylan will be to Rep. Nadler, but this type of credible primary challenge is another example of the trend facing many Democratic incumbents. In 2016, businessman Greg Gianforte (R) came within four points of unseating Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who is now apparently preparing to enter the Democratic presidential campaign. Ever since, speculation has continued that Mr. Gianforte would return to the Governor’s race in 2020. Since then, he won a special and regular election for the state’s at-large House seat, and one of the promises he gave the party leaders in that original congressional race was not to quickly leave the seat to again run for Governor.
This week, a Gianforte staff member confirmed, however, that the Congressman is considering the Governor’s campaign and has not yet ruled out joining the open seat race, a contest that already features Attorney General Tim Fox (R) and Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R). Should Gianforte make the leap back into the Governor’s race, we can also expect a major open seat battle for the congressional seat. What was once thought to be a walk for Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves in the Republican gubernatorial primary may turn into more of a challenge. Yesterday, four former Mississippi Republican Party ex-chairmen jointly endorsed Republican retired state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller, Jr. over Mr. Reeves.
If Judge Waller can prove an adept fundraiser, this early August primary may be more of a race than originally perceived. Earlier, we commented that Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland) was giving no indication that she would challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) next year, and now we have more tangible evidence to support such a conclusion.
Complying with yesterday’s campaign finance disclosure deadline, Rep. Pingree reports only raising $26,000 for the first quarter of this year and holding $232,000 in her campaign account. These are hardly numbers one would expect from a serious potential Senate candidate, especially when Sen. Collins holds $3.8 million in her campaign account. The National Association of Realtors PAC is playing big in North Carolina’s 9th District special election, and for one of their own. RPAC filed an independent expenditure declaration that they intend to spend $868,000 between now and the May 14th primary to help nominate realtor Leigh Thomas Brown in the Republican primary.
If successful, she will face 2018 Democratic nominee Dan McCready, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. To be nominated, a contender must receive at least 30% of the vote in the party primary. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a special runoff election will be held on September 10th between the top two primary finishers. The special general would then be held on November 5th. |
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