Former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D), who represented the Oklahoma City district for one term before losing in 2020 to current Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City), yesterday announced that she will enter the special US Senate election to replace resigning Sen. Jim Inhofe (R).
The move is a curious one in that Oklahoma is strongly Republican and should be even more so in what most observers and analysts feel will be a favorable GOP political climate this November. Ms. Horn certainly gives the Democrats a credible standard bearer and she will likely become a consensus candidate for the party nomination. Her chances for a general election victory, however, are slim. On the Republican side, it was originally expected that US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) would join the Senate field, but such will not be the case. Yesterday, the Congressman announced that he would seek re-election. The Senate field is crowded and Rep. Hern would have to risk his safe House seat and position on the Ways & Means Committee, a point he made last week when hedging about whether he would join the Senate special election contenders. Saying that, “seeing what's happened in the last few years has just forced me to get off the sidelines and get back in the game, and that's exactly the way I feel,” former four-term US Rep. Dennis Ross (R), as quoted in the Daily Kos Elections site, indicated that he will again file for Congress in what is expected to be a new open seat. The proposed map that passed the legislature features an open district containing much of the area east of Tampa that Mr. Ross previously represented.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has threatened to veto the congressional map, so redistricting is not yet complete. Most of the prospective congressional map versions, including the plan that awaits the Governor’s action, features an open seat in the Hillsborough County area so the chances of seeing such a district in the eventual final map are high. Florida gained one seat in national reapportionment bringing the delegation size to 28 districts. Earlier in the week, former President Donald Trump extended his congressional endorsement to Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) in his Republican primary battle against Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). Late yesterday, Trump’s pre-redistricting endorsed candidate, state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo), announced that he is exiting the congressional race and will seek re-election to the state House.
Like in the other districts of Republican incumbents who voted for the Trump impeachment, the former President is actively campaigning for their defeat. Rep. Upton is one of the ten GOP members who voted to remove him in the final days of his term. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in national reapportionment, Reps. Huizenga and Upton were paired in a new southwestern Michigan 4th CD. Though he has already been running media ads, Rep. Upton still maintains he has not yet fully decided to seek re-election. The candidate filing deadline is April 19th for the August 2nd primary. State Sen. Tom Sherman (D-Rye), a physician who represents the southeastern New Hampshire area known as the Seacoast, announced that he will challenge Gov. Chris Sununu (R) later this year becoming the first credible Democrat to enter the state’s 2022 gubernatorial race. Gov. Sununu is attempting to become only the second Governor to win four consecutive two-year terms. Former Gov. John Lynch (D-serving 2005-13) is the only office holder to have won four terms to the state’s highest office.
After winning a three point victory in his first election in 2016 with 49% of the vote, Gov. Sununu, currently the most popular elected official in New Hampshire, has averaged 59% in his subsequent re-election campaigns. He has also made comments indicating that he is considering a 2024 presidential run. In response to the legal haggling over the Maryland redistricting maps and understanding that the cases will not likely conclude before the state’s March 22nd candidate filing deadline, the state Court of Appeals yesterday moved the June 28th primary election to July 19th, and the candidate declaration deadline from the aforementioned March 22nd to April 15th.
A new McLaughlin & Associates poll (3/10-13; 500 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds a new leader in the Senate race and suggests the original favorite may not even qualify for a runoff.
The McLaughlin ballot test finds Black Hawk down pilot and Alabama defense business owner Mike Durant leading former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt, 34-32%, with US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), who carries former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, trailing with just 18% support. The Alabama primary is May 24th. If no one reaches the 50% plateau, the top two finishers will advance to a June 21st runoff election. Former President Donald Trump continues to dog the ten Republicans who voted for his impeachment in relation to the January 6th uprising at the Capitol. Before redistricting, Mr. Trump had endorsed Michigan state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo) against veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph). Now that Congressman Upton has been paired with fellow US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), because Michigan lost a congressional seat in national reapportionment, Mr. Trump has now added an endorsement for the latter House member.
It remains to be seen if Mr. Carra gives up his current position for what is now a long shot race against two incumbents and only having a watered-down Trump endorsement in a new district where he currently represents few people. The Michigan candidate filing deadline is April 19th for the August 2nd partisan primary. The late US Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s (R) widow, Jennifer Carnahan, the former Minnesota Republican Party chair, announced yesterday that she will file for the special election before today’s afternoon candidate declaration deadline. Ms. Carnahan resigned from the party with a cloud over her head, so it is unclear just how strong of a candidate she will become.
Announced for the special election beginning with a partisan primary on May 24th and a special general on August 9th, the latter concurrent with the regular Minnesota primary election, are eight Republicans and five Democrats. Among the Republican contingent are two current and one former state Representatives. Two-time Hagedorn Democratic opponent Dan Feehan chose not to run a third time. The most notable Democratic-Farm-Labor candidates are former White House Ethics Counsel Richard Painter and retired Hormel company CEO Jeff Ettinger. The aforementioned McLaughlin & Associates survey (see Alabama Senate above) also tested the GOP gubernatorial primary in which incumbent Kay Ivey is facing a challenge from real estate developer Tim James, son of former Governor Fob James, and ex-US Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard. The ballot test finds the Governor winning the May 24th primary outright, posting a 60-13-10% wide spread against Mr. James and Ms. Blanchard, respectively.
Public Policy Polling tested the Republican gubernatorial primary (3/7-8; 580 NV likely Republican primary voters; automated phoning & text) and sees Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo building a strong lead against former US Senator Dean Heller and North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. The original ballot question projects the Sheriff holding a 26-13-13% advantage over his two major opponents.
Former Senator Heller’s comeback - he was defeated for re-election in 2018 - has so far not gone well as he continues to lag well behind with voters from his own party. Before serving in the Senate, Mr. Heller was a US House member, the Nevada Secretary of State, and a state Assemblyman. |
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