Looking at the Public Policy Institute of California’s survey for the Governor’s race (see California Senate above), Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) continues to hold a lead. The question is whether a Republican will qualify for the second general election position. According to the jungle primary ballot test question, Mr. Newsom has a 28-14% lead over businessman and former presidential candidate John Cox (R). Close behind is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) at 12%. Republican state Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) is next with 10%. Former Mayor Villaraigosa is making a strong push to claim second place, which would enable him to battle Newsom in the general election. Republicans have virtually no chance of winning the statewide election.
--Jim Ellis The Mellman Group, polling for Democratic congressional candidate and Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (2/27-3/4; 400 UT-4 likely voters), finds that Rep. Mia Love’s (R-Saratoga Springs) margin is only 43-40% if the general election were held in the present time frame. Several other polls have been conducted over the past several weeks, with each projecting Love with a similar tight edge. We can expect this to be a competitive campaign in the fall, even considering Utah’s strong Republican voting history.
--Jim Ellis The Public Policy Institute of California went into the field again with a major statewide survey (3/4-13; 1,706 CA adults) to test residents’ attitudes about issues and candidates. Looking at their new US Senate data, it is clear that the state is again headed for a double-Democratic general election. According to the jungle primary question, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) leads state Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) by a 42-16% margin with no prominent Republican candidate on the ballot.
Sen. Feinstein leads among all groups, and surprisingly her margin with Hispanics (41-22%) is about the same as her advantage among white voters (39-15%), considering that she is opposing a significant Hispanic political leader. Not surprisingly, seeing no candidate of their own to support, 71% of surveyed Republicans are undecided. Of those who did made a choice, Sen. Feinstein was getting their support in a 15-11% split. --Jim Ellis The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken sides in two Texas run-off elections. According to their new “Red to Blue” target campaign listing released yesterday, the Committee is recommending support of former Office of the US Trade Representative official Gina Ortiz Jones, in a May 22nd run-off election for the right to face Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) in November, and attorney and ex-NFL football player Colin Allred who wants to oppose veteran US Representative and Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions (R-Dallas). Mr. Allred’s Democratic run-off opponent is businesswoman and former Deputy Agriculture Department Undersecretary Lillian Salerno.
--Jim Ellis With former Republican congressional nominee Danny Tarkanian (R) pivoting from the US Senate race back into the 3rd Congressional District contest on candidate filing day, more movement has occurred. According to Daily Kos Elections reporter Jeff Singer, former state Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman has now exited the race, citing Tarkanian’s entry. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is holding a fundraiser for state Sen. Scott Hammond, who is expected to be a major contender in this congressional race. Both Clark County Republican chairman Dave McKeon and former television reporter Michelle Mortensen pledge to continue their campaigns. The seat is open because freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) is running for Senate. Democrats appear to be coalescing around school board president Susie Lee.
--Jim Ellis For most of Tuesday night, financial advisor Kelly Mazeski led environmental businessman Sean Casten by a relatively small margin through 84% of the 6th District Democratic primary vote count. But, throughout the night as the final ballots were counted, Mr. Casten reversed the pervasive trend and pulled out a 30-27% plurality win. Mr. Casten will now face veteran Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) in what will be a competitive general election campaign. Both Casten and Mazeski largely self-funded their own campaigns. Ms. Mazeski spent the most money early, but Mr. Casten kept his political powder dry for use in the final days before the election and clearly made the better-timed financial decisions.
--Jim Ellis Congressional candidate filing closed yesterday for the new Pennsylvania districts and several points are worth mentioning. As predicted before the recent special election concluded, political combatants Conor Lamb, the western Pennsylvania Congressman-Elect, and state Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Canonsburg) both filed to run in the regular election but in different districts. Mr. Lamb will challenge Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley) in new District 17, while Mr. Saccone will run in a new District 14 that contains 57% of the district in which he previously ran. His major opponent is state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, who Saccone defeated at the special district nominating convention.
Former Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D-Montgomery County), who served in the House from 1999-2005, is seeking to make a political comeback. He filed petitions to run in the new open safely Democratic District 4, which contains 86% of Montgomery County. Mr. Hoeffel will face a crowded Democratic primary, including a pair of state Representatives, Mary Jo Daley (D-Narberth) and Madeleine Dean (D-Abington). Every incumbent seeking re-election faces major party opposition. In an aside note, Shannon Edwards, the woman with who former Rep. Tim Murphy engaged in an extra-marital affair that eventually caused him to resign, is herself running for Congress. Because no one else filed, she will be the Republican nominee against Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) in the new 18th District. --Jim Ellis Rep. Louise Slaughter’s (D-Rochester) unexpected death last week leaves a vacant seat with no one yet coming forward to run. With people saying they would think about running after the veteran Congresswoman is laid to rest, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is reportedly contemplating leaving the seat vacant until the regular election takes place. Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has taken a similar course of action with regard to his state’s 13th Congressional District, the seat from which former Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) resigned earlier in the year. In Michigan, the special congressional election will run concurrently with the regular cycle.
Candidate filing for the regular term closes on April 12th, so potential candidates don’t have much time to weigh their options. --Jim Ellis Former Gov. Pat Quinn (D), who current incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) unseated in 2014, was attempting a political comeback in running for the open Attorney General’s position. But, he failed on Tuesday night to advance into the general election. State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) defeated Mr. Quinn 30-27% to claim the Democratic nomination and becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election to replace retiring four-term Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D).
--Jim Ellis Cynthia Nixon, who came to fame playing the role of Miranda Hobbes in the HBO series, “Sex and the City,” announced on Monday that she will launch a campaign against Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the coming Democratic primary. Though this challenge is a long shot at best, Ms. Nixon will be hitting the Governor from his ideological left. She will likely have the ability to attract some national money, but the chances of her denying the Governor re-nomination are poor. But, the New York state primary isn’t until September, so this potential race has time to develop.
--Jim Ellis |
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