Late last week, we mentioned that OH Predictive Insights had just released an Arizona statewide survey (2/12-13; 600 AZ registered voters) giving appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) a 46-44% edge over just-announced Democratic candidate Mark Kelly. The latter man is a retired astronaut whose wife is former US Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson).
Now fully published, we find the OH survey also paired Sen. McSally with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), who confirms he is seriously considering entering the race. In an isolated ballot test with Rep. Gallego, Sen. McSally would lead him by a stronger 49-41% margin. Dr. Hiral Tipirneni (D), who twice ran for Congress last year in the 8th CD – once in the special election to replace resigned Rep. Trent Franks (lost 52-48% to Debbie Lesko) and again in the regular election (lost 55-45% to Rep. Lesko) -- is potentially looking to run again, but in a different district. According to the Daily Kos Elections website, Dr. Tipirneni is considering challenging Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) in the adjacent 6th District.
Though typically a strong Republican district, Rep. Schweikert is now under an Ethics Committee violation for possibly using his government resources to further his political campaign. There is no firm indication this race will materialize, but Dr. Tipirneni did indicate that she “lives close to the 6th District.” Though 2018 Democratic congressional nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux came within 419 votes of unseating Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville), who has already announced he will not seek re-election next year, it appears that she will have to fight hard to win re-nomination.
Three state Representatives all confirm they are considering running in the 7th District, meaning a hotly contested primary will be forced with a likely succeeding run-off if they, and others, enter the race. In addition to Ms. Bourdeaux, who confirms she will run again, state Reps. Sam Park (D-Lawrenceville), Pete Marin (D-Duluth), and Brenda Lopez Romero (D-Norcross) are all confirming that they are potential candidates. The Public Policy Polling Company, surveying for a Dallas Democratic political consultant, finds former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) almost tying Sen. John Cornyn (R) in a February research study. According to the poll (2/13-14; 734 TX registered voters), Sen. Cornyn would lead Mr. O’Rourke, 47-45%. But, such a race is unlikely to happen because there is a much better chance that the former Congressman soon announces for President.
Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said over the weekend that he would likely abandon his Independent presidential ambitions if the Democrats were to nominate a candidate who he described as being more moderate such as former Vice President Joe Biden or ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Making such a decision may not be that easy, however. Qualifying for the ballot as an Independent is difficult because each state has its own set of rules. Or, he might be able to snag the nomination of a minor party, but that, too, means negotiating his way through all of the politics for each situation and may not be recognized in every state. Therefore, Mr. Schultz may not have the luxury of waiting until the Democrats nominate their candidate. If he waits too long to decide, his logistical window of opportunity may close. Yesterday, we reported that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was responding to retired astronaut Mark Kelly’s Senate announcement by saying he is still considering entering. Now a congressional ally comes to his aide, suggesting that Mr. Gallego is indeed already working behind the scenes. Fellow Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) sent out an endorsement letter for Gallego yesterday, just days after Mr. Kelly announced and while Rep. Gallego was saying he will disclose his plans in several weeks. The Grijalva move suggests that Rep. Gallego will become a candidate.
On the heels of Mr. Kelly’s formal announcement, OH Predictive Insights conducted a flash poll of the state’s electorate (2/11-13; 600 AZ likely voters) and found appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) leading Mr. Kelly, 44-42%. Clearly a close November 2020 race is expected. While previously saying he would be concentrating on his twin brother Julian Castro’s presidential race, Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) now confirms that he is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R) next year. Ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s (D-El Paso) strong finish in the 2018 Senate race against junior Senator Ted Cruz (R) gives Democrats some hope that they could unseat Sen. Cornyn.
Rep. Castro also considered running for Senate and Governor in 2016, however, but decided to seek re-election to the House, instead. Now in the majority, the decision to take a chance on a statewide race is likely made even more difficult. The Change Research organization conducted a California Democratic presidential primary survey and found that home state Senator Kamala Harris is not dominating the field. According to the just-released survey (2/9-11; 948 CA likely Democratic presidential primary voters), Sen. Harris can do no better than tie former Vice President Joe Biden for first place, at 26% apiece. Closely following is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT) at 20%. No other candidate reaches 10%.
If the former Vice President and Sen. Sanders decide not to run, it is then Sen. Harris who takes charge. Without Mr. Biden in the field, the California first term Senator develops a commanding 53-23% lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), with all of the also-rans scoring no better than 7 percent. With California having the largest delegate contingent in the nation and voting early in the cycle (March 3rd), it becomes important for every candidate to show well in this state. It had been suggested for some time that former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr. (R) may enter the 2019 gubernatorial campaign, but his final decision was surprising nonetheless. While most believe Mr. Waller would run as an Independent or minor party candidate, he has decided to take a more traditional route. Instead of going straight into the general election and potentially become a spoiler, Mr. Waller announced yesterday that he will challenge Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
The Mississippi general election is expected to be close against four-term Attorney General Jim Hook (D). Lt. Gov. Reeves remains the clear favorite in the Republican primary, irrespective of Mr. Waller’s presence as his GOP primary opponent. M.J. Hegar is a decorated retired Army helicopter pilot who told her compelling personal story while challenging Texas Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) last November and holding him to a scant 51-48% re-election victory. While many believed she would again seek the congressional seat, instead Ms. Hegar is sending signals suggesting that she is entertaining thoughts about running for the US Senate.
Ms. Hegar’s profile and fundraising ability – she raised and spent over $5 million for her congressional campaign – would make her a credible challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R), but whether or not she could actually win the race in still-Republican Texas is certainly open to conjecture. |
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