Chicago: Two Dem Reps Oppose Mayor Lightfoot: Embattled first-term Mayor Lori Lightfoot continues to see support drift away. At an event the Chicago Teachers Union sponsored to declare its support of Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson for Mayor, US Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago) and Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) also announced their endorsement of the county official. Rep. Jackson criticized Mayor Lightfoot for not keeping her 2019 campaign promises.
The congressional member endorsements were a bit surprising since polling suggests that Mayor Lightfoot’s top competitor is their colleague in the House of Representatives, Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago). The Mayor’s election is February 28th. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an April 4th runoff election. Indiana: Rep. Jim Banks (R) Announces for Senate: Not backing down from a potential Republican primary race against former Governor Mitch Daniels, four-term US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) announced yesterday that he will enter Indiana’s open Senate race next year. Mr. Daniels has been sending signals that he will also run for the Senate, but the Banks move means the May Republican primary will likely be the big battle to replace first-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) who is bypassing re-election to run for Governor. Other potential GOP candidates include term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb and US Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), among others.
Mr. Banks ended the 2022 election cycle with approximately $1.4 million remaining in his campaign account. Gov. Daniels last appeared on the ballot in 2008 when he was re-elected to a second term with a 58-40% victory margin. Rep. Banks leaving the safely Republican 3rd Congressional District means we will see a crowded and hotly contested GOP congressional field in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+34. Ohio: 2022 GOP Senate Candidate Returns: Ohio State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball club, will return for a second consecutive US Senate contest. This time, he hopes to challenge veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the 2024 general election. In the last election, for the open seat created when Sen. Rob Portman (R) announced he would not seek a third term, Sen. Dolan competed against six opponents, losing to now-Senator J.D. Vance (R) by a 32-23% margin with former state Treasurer Josh Mandel placing second just a point ahead of Mr. Dolan. In the current election cycle, Sen. Dolan’s chances for the party nomination appear better. If he is successful in the Republican primary, Sen. Dolan faces a difficult general election opponent in Sen. Brown even though Ohio has been moving decidedly closer to the GOP in recent elections. In 2018, Sen. Brown defeated then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R), 53-47%. CA-30: Yet, Another: Businessman Josh Bocanegra (D) who was looking to enter the US Senate race has instead decided to compete for the Burbank anchored congressional race that most presume will be open. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) is widely expected to run for the Senate once incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) announces her retirement. Already in the congressional race are state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) and Los Angeles Unified School Board Vice Chairman Nick Melvoin.
The seat will remain in Democratic hands, but it is likely we will see two Democrats advance to the general election from the top two jungle primary format that California has used since the 2012 election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-30 as D+45. MN-2: Local Mayor Announces for House: After Navy veteran Tyler Kistner (R) ran two close but unsuccessful campaigns against Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in 2020 and 2022, Lexington Mayor Mike Murphy (R) announced yesterday that he will attempt to win the party nomination in hopes of becoming the Congresswoman’s 2024 challenger. There is little indication as to what Mr. Kistner might be thinking about a third congressional run, but him losing two consecutive races suggests that the party leaders will be looking for a new contender. Nebraska: Sen-Designate Ricketts Already Draws Potential Challenge: Not yet even sworn into office, Nebraska Senate-Designate Pete Ricketts (R), who new Gov. Jim Pillen (R) last week chose to fill the vacancy that former Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) resignation created, may already be drawing a 2024 Republican challenger.
Rancher Chuck Herbster, the 2022 gubernatorial candidate who former President Trump endorsed and would lose to Mr. Pillen with then-Gov. Ricketts’ strong support, confirmed that he is considering launching a nomination challenge when the latter man first faces the voters in the May 2024 Republican primary. One reason Mr. Herbster lost the ’22 primary, however, was because several women went public with sexual harassment accusations, a controversy sure to arise again if he makes another attempt to seek public office. Regardless of Mr. Herbster’s plans, it is probable that Mr. Ricketts will face a contested primary next year. His appointment was not unanimously well received within all quarters of the Nebraska Republican Party, but he has a full year in which to build an expanded intra-party winning coalition. West Virginia: Governor Contemplates Senate Campaign: In a media interview at the end of last week, term-limited West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) confirmed that he is “seriously considering” making a US Senate run next year. Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has not committed to seeking re-election. He could retire, or enter the open Governor’s race since Mr. Justice is ineligible to run for a third term. Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) has already announced his intention to challenge Sen. Manchin. At this point, West Virginia appears as the Republicans’ top national conversion target. AZ-1: More Challenges Brewing Against Rep. Schweikert: Arizona Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) 3,195 vote victory over media consultant Jevin Hodge, a percentage margin of just 50.4 – 49.6%, proved to be the twelfth closest US House result in the 2022 election cycle. Predictably, since Mr. Schweikert, plagued with an ethics controversy surrounding his handling of campaign and federal monies and who significantly under-performed in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7, will draw another serious challenge in 2024.
Already, three individuals are publicly taking action or mulling challenges. Dr. Andrew Horne, a local orthodontist, has officially announced his candidacy. Mr. Hodge, the 2022 nominee, confirms that he is considering another run. Former local news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods (D), widow of the late Republican-turned-Democrat Attorney General Grant Woods, also acknowledges her potential interest in making a congressional run in the state’s new 1st CD. Count on this race developing into another major national target campaign next year. CA-30: Another Jumps the Gun: We continue to see a chain reaction of political moves in California since Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) announced her intention last week to run for the Senate. In anticipation of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) entering the Senate contest, though he has yet to say so, we now have two credible Democratic candidates announcing for what they think will be the Congressman’s open seat. As we previously reported, Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education Vice Chairman Nick Melvoin (D) declared for the House seat, and immediately afterward state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) announced that she, too, will compete for Rep. Schiff’s federal position. Through all of this, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) has yet to announce her own 2024 plans, though all of these moves are based upon her expected retirement. Nebraska: Gov. Pillen Tabs ex-Gov. Pete Ricketts for Vacant Senate Seat: Sen. Ben Sasse (R) has officially resigned his seat in order to assume his new duties as president of the University of Florida, and new Governor Jim Pillen (R), as expected, chose former Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) as the interim replacement. Mr. Ricketts will serve until the next general election in 2024. The seat is next in-cycle for a six-year term in 2026.
Gov. Pillen wanted to pick a Senator who would commit to serving a long while in order to build seniority for the state to compliment two-term Sen. Deb Fischer (R) who is seeking re-election in 2024. Therefore, Mr. Ricketts committed to running both in 2024 and 2026. Senate-Designate Ricketts will be sworn into office when the Senate next convenes on January 23rd. CA-30: Senate Race Already Rolling: California Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) move to declare for the Senate even before incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) announces her retirement has already set off a chain of reaction. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) says she will announce once Sen. Feinstein makes her retirement public. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) looks to be doing the same. In anticipation of the latter jumping into the Senate race, Los Angeles School Board member Nick Melvoin (D) announced yesterday that he will run for the House.
Louisiana: Rep. Graves Considering Gov Race: Saying, “I think that the sentiment out there in the public for another candidate in this race is absolutely extraordinary,” Louisiana US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) confirmed that he is still considering whether to run for Governor later this year, and promises a decision in the next few days. The open gubernatorial field has changed drastically with both Sen. John Kennedy (R) and Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) declining to become candidates.
Mr. Graves was first elected to the House in 2018 and easily re-elected in 2020 and 2022 with 71 and 80% of the vote, respectively. He would not have to risk his congressional seat to run for Governor in this odd-numbered year election. Attorney General Jeff Landry (R), state Treasurer John Schroder (R), and Department of Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) presently appear to be the leading contenders. The candidate filing deadline is not until August 10th. The jungle primary is scheduled for October 14th. If no one receives majority support in the initial vote, the top two finishers will advance to a November 18th runoff election. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Mississippi: Elvis’ Cousin Announces for Governor: Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D), a second cousin to the late music legend Elvis Presley, announced that he will compete for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in a quest to challenge Gov. Tate Reeves (R) later this year. Mr. Presley was elected to the Public Service Commission in 2007 after serving seven years as Mayor of Nettleton, a town of approximately 2,000 residents. He is the first person to become an official 2023 opponent to Gov. Reeves. Secretary of State Michael Watson is a potential Republican primary challenger. Candidate filing closes February 1st. The statewide primary is set for August 8th with a runoff date on August 29th for those races where no candidate achieves majority support in the initial vote. The general election is November 7th. Arizona: Kari Lake (R) Leads in New Senate Poll: Former local Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R), who just lost a close race for Governor, claims a small lead in a new hypothetical US Senate poll featuring she, incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix).
David Binder Research conducted the survey (1/5-8; 618 AZ registered voters; interactive voice response system & text) and projects that Ms. Lake, who has not indicated that she will run for the Senate, leads Rep. Gallego and Sen. Sinema, 36-32-14%, respectively. Though Sen. Sinema trails badly, she could certainly rebound and come from the outside to win especially if the Democratic and Republican candidates almost evenly split the remaining vote. Considering recent vote history since 2018, such an outcome is certainly possible. Rep. Gallego is an all-but-announced Senate candidate. He may, however, face opposition from US Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix), and possibly others, in the Democratic primary. California: Rep. Lee (D) Says She will Run for Senate: California Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) reportedly is telling supporters that she will run for the Senate next year, following Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) lead, but will not declare her intentions until Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) announces her expected retirement. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) is also expected to follow a similar path into the Senate contest. We will probably see a Democratic brawl that could last the entire election cycle considering that California’s top two primary system will likely advance two Democrats into the general election. Considering both Reps. Porter’s and Schiff’s strong fundraising prowess, Rep. Lee will be at a clear financial disadvantage. The Bay Area, however, has produced most of the recent statewide elected officials, so geography would be a point in her favor. Count on a very crowded Senate field should Sen. Feinstein, in fact, decide to retire. West Virginia: Sec of State Announces for Governor: Secretary of State Mac Warner yesterday announced his 2024 gubernatorial candidacy in what is already becoming a crowded open seat Republican primary. Mountain State Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and may run for the Senate.
Already in the race is state Del. Moore Capito (R-Charleston), son of West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and auto dealer Chris Miller, the son of 1st District Congresswoman Carol Miller (R-Huntington). Two other minor candidates have also entered the race. No Democrat has yet come forward. Former state Delegate S. Marshall Wilson is also running, representing the Americans Coming Together Party (ACT). Many more candidates are expected to enter the race. Rumors persist that Sen. Joe Manchin (D) may run for Governor instead of seeking re-election. |
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