Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon), one of President Trump’s strongest GOP critics in relation to the latest impeachment vote, has already drawn a 2022 primary opponent. Gene Koprowski (R), a former marketing director for the conservative Heartland Institute prior to him being terminated due to sexual harassment claims, announced that he will challenge the six-term Congressman next year. While it may be unlikely that Mr. Koprowski will develop into a strong contender, it is probable that Rep. Kinzinger will draw viable opposition in the March 2022 Republican primary should he choose to seek re-election.
Freshman Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Grand Rapids), who scored an open seat 53-47% victory in November, has drawn a 2022 Republican primary challenger. Tom Norton, who did not fare well against Rep. Meijer in the open 2020 Republican primary and lost previous races for the state legislature, announced yesterday that he will challenge the new Congressman in next year’s Republican primary.
While Mr. Norton may not be the strongest of opponents for an incumbent, his move could be a precursor to a stronger candidate coming forward. Considering Rep. Meijer’s prominent position in supporting another impeachment of President Trump, the conservative base in the district will likely seek to rally around a stronger contender against the new Congressman. As has been expected for some time, former presidential candidate Andrew Yang (D) announced that he will enter the open New York City Mayoral contest scheduled for later this year. The Democratic primary will be crowded, but early polling suggests that he and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams are the front runners for the party nomination. Winning the party’s June 22nd primary is virtually tantamount to claiming the position in the November general election.
Names of more potential US Senate candidates are surfacing just after two Democrats, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and state Sen. Sharif Street (D-Philadelphia), made it clear they will become candidates. Now said also to be considering are Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Jenkintown), former six-term US Rep. Jim Gerlach (R), and state Sen. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia).
In 2018, local Long Island Democratic Party leaders attempted without success to recruit 911 first responders advocate John Feal into the congressional race against Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley). Mr. Feal ultimately declined to run, but now admits he is considering a 2022 challenge particularly, he said, after Mr. Zeldin voted against certification of the Electoral College results last week. Rep. Zeldin defeated Democrat Nancy Goroff, 54-43%, in the 2020 election to win a fourth term.
Yesterday, local Brazoria County NAACP President Eugene Howard announced that he will challenge freshman Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond/Sugar Land) next year. Previously, marketing executive Jim Squires (D) declared his candidacy.
The two may or may not have an opportunity to challenge Rep. Nehls. The 22nd District is the most over-populated district in a state that is expected to gain three seats in the next apportionment. This means the whole south Houston suburban region will drastically change under a new map. Expect the new 22nd District to be drawn as a much more favorable Republican seat than the current version. For the first time since 1983, Democrats have a new official leader in the state House of Representatives. St. Rep. Chris Welch (D-Westchester) was elected Speaker of the House, thus ending the leadership career of now former Speaker Mike Madigan (D-Chicago) who presided over a legislative body longer than any person in US history.
Mr. Madigan served as Speaker since his original election in 1983 with only one break of service, that in 1995-96 when Republicans captured the House majority. He was long regarded as the most important figure in Illinois state politics and became a frequent Republican target in even statewide campaigns. Mr. Madigan suspended his Speaker campaign when it became evident that he did not have enough support within his own Democratic caucus. California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D), who will soon replace Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) when she resigns to become Vice President, is leaving no doubt to his intentions regarding seeking a full term in 2022. Yesterday, Mr. Padilla confirmed that he will enter the 2022 statewide race.
The last two California Senate campaigns have produced double-Democrat general elections from the state’s jungle primary system, and a good chance remains that the same could again happen. Unless Senator-Designate Padilla draws a serious Democratic opponent, he will begin the campaign cycle with the inside track toward winning a full term in 22 months. Since Congress is now embroiled in another impeachment controversy, the House Administration Committee does not have a full membership, meaning resolving the challenge to Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-Ottumwa) six-vote victory remains on the back burner. The House provisionally seated Ms. Miller-Meeks, who is the certified state winner, and she will serve until the Committee makes a decision on the 22 contested ballots. If they accept challenger Rita Hart’s (D) petition the entire House would then take the final action in awarding the seat for the current term.
Arguably the Republicans’ strongest candidate in the budding special election to replace Interior Secretary-Designate Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque) in the US House apparently won’t enter the race. 2020 US Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti, who held Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (D) to a 52-46% statewide victory in November, returned to his position as an on-camera weatherman for the Albuquerque CBS television affiliate. This exposure gave him the residual name identification to make the open US Senate campaign competitive.
The special election will be called upon Rep. Haaland’s confirmation to her new position, at which point she will resign from the House. At that time, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) will take the necessary action to schedule the replacement special election in order to fill the vacancy. President-Elect Joe Biden carrying the Albuquerque anchored 1st CD with a 60-37% margin certainly gives the eventual Democratic nominee the inside track toward a special election victory. With Mr. Ronchetti’s decision to return to television news, the Democrats’ chances of prevailing are now even greater. Under New Mexico election law, the parties will meet in a special convention to choose their nominee. Therefore, voters will participate in only one election here later this year. |
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