The Keep Kansas Great PAC released the results of a co/Efficient polling company survey (1/19-20; 1,246 KS likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response) that finds west Kansas US Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) moving slightly ahead of former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the 2020 open Senate Republican primary.
The co/Efficient data finds Rep. Marshall only clinging to a 29-28% edge, but this is the first time that Mr. Kobach has trailed in a published Republican primary survey. Additionally, Mr. Marshall’s statewide name identification is far below that of Mr. Kobach’s who lost the Governor’s race in 2018 to Democratic candidate Laura Kelly, suggesting the Congressman has much more room to grow. Democrats believe they can win the open Senate seat if Kobach becomes the GOP nominee. Public general election polling has so far supported the Democrats’ optimism. Reports surfaced over the weekend that President Trump is asking Mr. Kobach not to become a candidate. The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1st for the August 4th primary, so much time remains before decisions must be made. Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is retiring. Now that Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has signaled he will schedule the special election to replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R) to run concurrently with the April 28th presidential primary election, Republican Party leaders are beginning to consider who they will choose as their nominee. Under New York election law, the local party chairmen choose nominees for special elections instead of holding a primary election.
Democrats have already coalesced around former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, the 2018 congressional nominee who held Rep. Collins to a 48-47% victory. Vying for Republican county chairmen support are state Sens. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) and Rob Ortt (R-Tonawanda), attorney Beth Parlato, and historian Frank Smierciak. Now, as expected, Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw announced that he will also add his name for consideration. The chairmen from the eight counties that comprise the 27th District will determine the schedule to field a nominee, but we can expect a quick process now that we see a definitive election calendar emerging. Attorney and former congressional committee staff member Rosemary Becchi has opted out of a Republican primary fight against state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District and will now switch her campaign to challenging freshman Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair/Morristown) in the neighboring 11th CD.
Certainly, the move gives Ms. Becchi a better chance of advancing to the general election and, arguably, the 11th District is actually more favorable to a Republican candidate, but Ms. Sherrill proved to be one of the strongest 2018 open seat candidates, nationally. The move is undoubtedly a good move for the party, since it will now give Republicans two strong candidates in previous GOP districts that were lost in 2018. Whether the move ultimately benefits Ms. Becchi remains to be seen. Former Vice President Joe Biden may be catching a momentum wave at a very good time. Recent polling shows him leading in Florida and California, and now a David Binder Research survey (1/15-18; 500 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders) finds him developing a clear advantage in the first voting state, Iowa. According to the Binder numbers, Mr. Biden has a 24-18-16-14-11% spread over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). The Minnesota lawmaker now appears to be making a badly needed late charge in neighboring Iowa.
Though Mr. Biden is projected to have a lead beyond the margin of error, this survey suggests that four candidates would still qualify to split Iowa’s 41-vote first ballot contingent. Therefore, it appears that the party’s nomination battle will be a long fight. The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for February 3rd. Clearly hoping to dissuade Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) from challenging her in the Republican primary, appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) has launched a $2.6 million introductory media ad wave to help define herself with Republican primary voters. One of the ads ends with the lines: “China is attacking American jobs. Iran is attacking American troops. And Congress only attacks the president. It has to stop.”
Democratic attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan announced that she is exiting the Massachusetts party primary, which effectively leaves Sen. Ed Markey (D) to face Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) in a one-on-one battle. Previously, author Steve Pemberton dropped his bid just shortly after Rep. Kennedy announced his candidacy in October. This will be the nation’s top Senate primary challenge and settled a bit earlier than originally planned. The legislature and Governor recently took action to move the September 15th election date to September 1st.
Earlier in the week, retiring Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City) said he would not run for Governor and endorsed former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright to become the party nominee. Now, Mr. Wright has recruited Rep. Bishop to be his running mate for Lt. Governor. In Utah, gubernatorial candidates choose their Lt. Governor partner before the party primary.
The Moore-Bishop ticket will face Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, ex-state House Speaker Greg Hughes, Salt Lake County Councilwoman Aimee Winder Newton, and businessman Jeff Burningham in the Republican primary scheduled for June 23rd. The Republicans will first move through the nominating convention, which is scheduled for April 25th. A candidate can be nominated outright with a 60% share of the delegate vote. Otherwise, the top two finishers will advance to the primary election. Emerson College took its turn at surveying the Granite State Democratic electorate in anticipation of the February 11th first-in-the-nation primary. The Emerson poll (1/13-16; 657 NH likely Democratic primary voters) projects Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to have taken a 23-18-14-14-10% lead over former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Following are Andrew Yang (8%), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and billionaire Tom Steyer (4%).
The results are an obvious bump for Sen. Sanders and a downturn for Mr. Biden. Additionally, this is the first time any New Hampshire poll has found Sen. Klobuchar climbing into double digits. At-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) yesterday made her long-awaited statement about whether she will enter the state’s open Senate race this year. The Congresswoman announced to the Republican Conference members that she will remain in the House and in her leadership position. Rep. Cheney is chair of the House Republican Conference, the third position in minority leadership.
This means that former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R), who has been running for the Senate seat since soon after incumbent Mike Enzi (R) announced his retirement, is at least the short-term leader. The Cheney announcement is likely to encourage other potential candidates, and many of those who might have been thinking about running for the House if she had entered the Senate race, to enter the contest to succeed Sen. Enzi. Republicans are in the driver’s seat as Wyoming was President Trump’s strongest state in 2016, and he will again lead the ticket here in 2020. The way back to Congress might be even more difficult that former US Rep. Steve Knight (R) had imagined. Attracting only 8% of the county party member vote, the Los Angeles County Republican Central Committee awarded the official party endorsement to Iraq War veteran and Defense contractor Mike Garcia for the special election scheduled for March 3rd, a vote concurrent with the California presidential primary and statewide primary.
Mr. Knight, a former state Senator and Assemblyman, lost the congressional seat in 2018 to Democrat Katie Hill who has since resigned the seat because of a sex scandal. Mr. Knight was twice elected to Congress. Democrats, despite a large field of candidates, are coalescing behind freshman state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) and will attempt to win the seat outright on March 3rd by helping her reach the 50% plateau. Mr. Garcia, who has already raised close to $1 million for the special election campaign, was viewed as the more energetic and aggressive candidate by the vast majority of voting Republican committee members. |
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